First, at the risk of being bombarded with hatred from Tuanon, this must be said. Our NFL analytics review of the Miami Dolphins behavior during the 2023 season suggests they should pause before moving forward with the Tua contract extension.

 

Below, I am going to simply provide you with the objective numbers that led to this conclusion. Following your review of that, I will provide you the analysis of those numbers, which cemented that conclusion.

 

But make no mistake, the Dolphins need to reconsider their reported willingness to sign him to a record breaking extension.

 

If you’re short on time…

• Miami’s Scoring Behavior Regression Mirrors Tua’s Passing Regression
• Tua’s overreliance on the Dolphins internal environment limits his ceiling
• Miami needs a momentum changer at QB to break through AFC

In review of the Football Behavior NFL Analytics for the purposes of analyzing a possible Tua contract extension, one glaring note stuck out: Miami’s season long scoring regression (20% week over week) was identical to Tua’s passing touchdown regression (20% week over week).

 

On the surface, this makes sense. The quarterback is the capatain of the on-field ship. A little bit deeper, and that’s a little troubling.

 

The question the Miami Dolphins need to answer is how much of that regression is correlated, or caused, by Tua’s limitations.

 

The Case FOR A Tua Contract Extension:

 

1. There is no guarantee that you will replace him with anything better if you already have a top 15-20 QB.

 

This is very true. However, it is also dangerously close to the sunk cost fallacy. Tua was the fifth overall pick. Lots of invested draft capital. But more than that, in the Mike McDaniel era, the Dolphins have gone above and beyond to express their love and confidence in Tua publicly, to the point of infantization.

 

Before every primetime game there was seemingly a fetaure on Tua and how much McDaniel loves him, feels he is “the key” to his offense, is why he “took the job”, etc., etc.

 

MUCH has been invested in this relationship, but that is no reason invest even more, especially at a record-breaking pace.

 

And while analytics will be used as an argument for, this sunk-cost, risk-averse thinking flies in the face of the very argument we make for things like going it on fourth down. Yes, the risk is great if you get it wrong. But, if you get it right?

 

That moves the Dolphins from consistent first round exits in which their offense was thouroughly dominated, to AFC contender.

 

2. But EPA something, something something.

 

First, our subscribers will gladly tell you we don’t consider EPA in our metrics here at Football Behavior. Averages and standardization metrics for teams can be a bit misleading. But I will take it a step further:

 

If EPA has value, it is at the team/group level. Using it as an individual player assessment tool is downright malpractice.

 

To suggest otherwise, along the lines of using it to bolster the “extend Tua” argument, then you have to also agree that Brock Purdy is two times better than Tua (as his EPA/Dropback would suggest), and Baker Mayfield is a compareable quarterback (As HIS EPA/Dropback would suggest).

 

But then to suggest that would fly in the face of argument number one above, as you could get Baker for MUCH cheaper than an extension for Tua is going to cost you, with MUCH less of a long term commitment.

 

If its traditional stats you’re after, than yes, Tua led the legaue in passing yards. Right behind him, less than 50 yards behind him is Jared Goff. Goff also had more touchdowns and less interceptions than him.

 

Russell Wilson, Mayfield, Derek Carr, Jordan Love, CJ Stroud, Goff, and Purdy all had a better TD%-INT% rate.

 

3. Tua has elite accuracy.

 

No argument here, or snarky rebuttal. When the offense is working perfectly, Tua is the best distributor for that offense. His timing and aniticipation with on-book plays is impeccable.

 

But that is also the problem. The offense isn’t always going to be working perfectly. Defenses, especially later in the season, are going to find ways to disrupt timing and to take away your go-to’s. Thus, the 20% regression in his passing touchdowns week over week and 7% regression in his passing yards.

 

In the perfect conditions, Tua is elite. No argument here.

 

The Case AGAINST A Tua COntract Extension

 

1. What happens when it isn’t perfect?  

 

Answer: The Dolphins struggle. For the first six weeks of the season, the Dolphins had a very exciting and dominating offense, except when they played good defenses. They went 5-1 during that span.

 

Then starting in week 7, the had a below average scoring offense against everyone except the Commanders.  They were 6-6, losing four of their final six games.

 

The truth is that they were an average-at-best team during the final 12 games of their season, but mostly below average. In their final six games, including the playoff beating they took in Kansas City, they scored below 0.65 points per minute of possession time (the league average) five times, and eight times in their final 12 games.

 

But the media allowed the Dolphins to live off of the gawdy numbers they put up early because it grossly over-inflated their averages. So why were the Dolphins an average to below average offense over the final two thirds of their season?

 

The schedule got tougher. Defenses began to figure out the things Tua and offense liked to do. The playcalling is tailored to Tua’s strengths. If you believe that he is limited, opponents catching up after just six weeks should not be that surprising.

 

But to the point of the overarching question, when it isn’t perfect, Tua has shown little to no ability to adapt, or more importantly, improvise. He has no scrambling ability and rarely makes a play off-script. You simply cannot win late in the season without that.

 

2. He does not have the ability to make momentum changes on his own.

 

Name a play from the 2023 season where TUA, not Tua and Tyreke Hill, etc., but TUA made a play that changed the course of a game? A big scramble? An escape and dime throw on the run?

 

Don’t worry, I’ll wait.

 

The Dolphins surely had MANY big plays that left you with your jaw dropped. But how many were unplanned? How many came at a point the offense was dragging or trailing and it changed the course of the game?

 

This above all else is the most troubling issue with Tua, and one trait he seems to lack compared to his AFC colleagues Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes. Ya know, three of the four quarterbacks left standing on in the divisional round of the playoffs, two of which were left standing on championship Sunday.

 

I mean, even CJ Stroud, the fourth quarterback playing in the divisional round has many of these moments in elevating the Texans to new heights.

 

It is now, in this era of the NFL, a pre-requisite of the job if you want to reach the heights of the sport.

 

The Mahomes Issue…

 

In the Super Bowl, the game’s biggest stage, his offense was stalled and stymied for the majority of the game. They managed just three points at half time. Their first touchdown came two minutes and 28 seconds left in the third quarter.

 

And that followed a fluke fumble on a punt. The defense immediately surrendered a touchdown right back erasing any positive momentum they had just gotten.

 

They then played form behind or tied for the rest of the game. Then came the final drive of the game. Again, the offense was struggling. Mahomes converted a fourth and 1 on a 8 yard scramble on the first set of downs on the drive.

 

He converted a 3rd and 1 later on with a 19 yard scramble, that had they not converted would likely have led to a FG attempt to tie.

 

In the game’s most dire moments with nothing going his way, he finds a way to make it happen, to change the momentum.

 

Where in Tua’s entire carreer, let alone the biggest stage, has he shown close to that ability. Allen has. Jackson has. Shoot, Brock Purdy and Baker Mayfield have.

 

And when you say those guys are exceptions with multiple MVP’s, etc. Yes. But that’s who Miami is competing against. That’s who Miami faced in the final three games of their season that they needed to win to eoither secure the division or advance.

 

They went 0-3. Two of those teams are who eliminated Miami from the playoffs in the first round each of the last two seasons.

 

Being as good as those guys is what Miami needs to overcome. That is what Tua needs to be because thats what it takes.

 

Are you confident he can become that? Are the Dolphins? You/they better be if WHILE you are in dire financial straits, letting go of key defensive talent, you commit a record breaking contract to Tua, or even market-level contract to him for the long term.

 

What Can Dolphins Do At QB?

 

To be clear, the solution is not to cut ties with Tua completely. He is certainly a top half of the league quarterback. You don’t just dismiss that.

 

But perhaps the Dolphins can convince him to take Kirk Cousins-style deals. Shorter term, high guarantees. Prove it deals so to speak.

 

In that case, I would consider trading up to draft a quarterback. You have elite offensive skill players. You have elite offensive play calling. This is the environment to develop a rookie quarterback in and see if he has it.

 

Tua will help you win games when it is all clicking. But you need a game changer. An X-Factor.

 

Will Tua’s ego take a bruise if they do this? Of course. This is why I was against all of the public love showing they did. They paint themselves into a corner if it doesn’t work out.

 

Will the Dolphins do this? Almost assuredly no. So, if they do in fact extend Tua, the hope should be to do it as front loaded as possible. They would be running it back, with less of a known commodity on defense. It’ll essentially be the same team.

 

The goal here is not to be locked into the same team long term. The challenege here is what to do with Hill. His deal comes up soon as well. The Dolphins are in a precarious situation based on timing and a lack of meaningful results.

 

Tua is good. He is serviceable. He will help a stacked roster win games. If that is your ultimate goal, congratulations. You have achieved it.

 

But if you are after more, is two straight years of scoring regression the answer to getting over the hump? Sure, year one was injury derailed. 

 

Year 2? Injury free. Insanely improved offenisve line. Elite weaponry. Season long regression. These are the yellow lights just before it turns red. 

 

Doesn’t mean cut him loose. Perhaps more time is needed. To me that says shorter term prove it deals are the way to go. That is what the behavior of the team with this player at the helm, suggest to do.