The Falcons have disappointed in their seasons under Arthur Smith. They have been competitive in the most mediocre of ways, but wins are what pays the bills and keeps jobs. 

Enter Raheem Morris. Immediately he has identified how much better this team would be with an upgrade at QB. He brings along with him Zac Robinson to lead the offense. 

Now enter: Kirk Cousins. 

If you’re short on time…

• Atlanta’s Scoring Behavior was well below league average
• Cousins Thrives In Similar Environments
• Falcons Could Be NFC South Contenders Immediately

The Football Behavior NFL Analytics above show that the Falcons are mostly a below average team in terms of their Applied Scoring Behavior. 

Their Margin For Error Score, a measure of relative strength week to week, is bottom third of the league. Without their defense it would be even worse. When isolating just for offense, their Scoring Behavior Rate ranked 23rd.

A year after being the NFL’s most consistent teams, they became one of it’s most inconsistent. 

So then how is it that they are right at 16th in Total Team Behavior Score? Their defense was three thousandths of a point away from being ranked in the top 10 for Score Prevention Behavior Rate. 

And yet, their offense still mangaed to score more than a full tenth of a point LESS than thir defense allowed. 

Enter Kirk Cousins into the new Shanahan-style offenisve environment for Atlanta. 

The Case FOR The Falcons Signing Kirk Cousins:

1. He Thrives In Shanahan Offenses.

There is a reason Kyle Shanahan’s first thought when taking the job in San Francisco was to go and get Cousins. When he coached him in Washington he knew he was the perfect prototype for his system.

Cousins ultimately signed with Minnesota, and proved that true. Kevin O’Connell is a QB Collective coach in the Shanahan mold, and Cousins ultimately played well above league average. Just look at 2022. The Vikings averaged 0.924 points per minute of possession time, second only to Mahomes and champion Chiefs. 

In 2023, they were the victims of awful luck with fumbles seemingly every week early in the season, and then Cousins humself was lost for the season. How bad was the drop off?

Their Scoring Behavior Rate average dropped by 24.3%, and their socring consistency dropped by 137% (!). 

If Cousins is back in top form, bringing him into another Shanahan-style offense under Zac Robinson and Raheem Morris (both of whom have spent considerable time with Shanahan’s QB Collective partner Sean McVay), the learning curve will be significantly minimal with similar terminology, and we could see early success in 2024.

2. Young Playmakers

You wouldn’t know it by Smith’s handling of the offense, or the by the quality of QB play, but the Falcons have dynamic playmakers. Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson, and to a lesser extent Drake London, provide a solid foundation to step into. 

I would not be surprised to see the Falcons add another wide receiver or pass catcher to give Cousins even more options. Tee Higgins has demanded a trade…

3. Falcons Immediately Contend For NFC South

The Buccaneers have listened to us and brought back Baker Mayfield. The Saints enter year two with Derek Carr coming off of a season that was better than most assume. 

The Panthers are… the Panthers. 

So with Cousins in the fold, and the environment he is stepping into, they should immeidately compete for the division. The NFC South all of a sudden becomes a really fun division to keep an eye on in the NFC.