The Improvement Index is used by us at Football Behavior to measure, with precision, the overall improvement or regression over the course of a team’s season. We do this by examining their celeration rates for their Applied Scoring Behavior (scoring behavior and score prevention behavior) and determining their overall levels of improvement.

The exact process and methodology can be found here. Below you will find the list of all 32 teams ranked in the order of their overall team improvement throughout the 2023-2024 season, accompanied by the percentage of their improvement, or regression. Improvement will be highlighted in GREEN, while overall regression will be highlighted in RED.

This is measured as “week to week” improvement or regression over the entirety of the NFL season. 

1. Giants 

2. Saints 

3. Bengals

4. Falcons

5. Cowboys

6. Lions

7. Rams

8. Steelers

9. Bears

10. Buccaneers

11. Chiefs, 6.08% 

12. Seahawks, 3.96% 

13. Broncos, 1.85%

14. Raiders, 1.77%

15. Texans 0.98% 

16. Ravens, 0.96%

17. Cardinals, 0.94%

18. Patriots, 0.94%

19. Browns, 3.58%

20. Packers, 6.31%

21. Titans, 8.77%

22. Jaguars, 9.26%

23. Colts, 12.07%

24. 49ers, 13.37%

25. Bills, 15.08%

26. Eagles, 17.11%

27. Jets, 15.08%

28. Commanders, 17.11%

29. Chargers, 17.65%

30. Dolphins, 20%

31. Vikings, 20.91%

32. Panthers, 28.24%

We use the Improvement Index to give us valuable insights into team performance. One reason we are are adept at predicting upsets, sleeper teams and forecasting future decline or success is because the Improvement Index helps us see the momentum of team behavior trends.

If we relied solely on averages like PPG, or standardization metrics like EPA, we would miss where a current team is in their development in the current moment. With this season now concluded, here is what we have learned from this years final Index Rankings.

1. The Eagles and Dolphins collapse makes sense. In the case of the Eagles, we told our newsletter subscribers back in August to expect a noticeable regression from them. As the season went on, even when they had a 10-1 record, we continued to warn them of a coming collapse. Their behavior was not matching their record. The Improvement Index was showing severe week to week regression that was bound to catch up, and boy did it. It is also why we picked the Bucs to “upset” them in the wild card round.

As for the Dolphins, we begged people starting mid-season to see that this offense was heading towards disaster. But their PPG averages and EPA fooled people into a false sense that this was a juggernaut offense. In terms of scoring points, we could see that that wasn’t true since Week 7, and it was especially false against top defenses. Yet, the false narratives continued in the media. Due to the Improvement Index, we saw their surrender to the Bills, and their playoff loss to the Chiefs coming weeks in advance. 

2. Todd Bowles and Sean McVay should have been Coach of the Year candidates. One of the valuable insights we get from the Improvement Index is the role coaching plays in team success throughout the season. The top responsibility of a head coach and his staff is to ensure that the team that opens the season in September is the worst version of that team when the season concludes in January, or hopefully, February. 

The Rams and Buccaneers each had extremely low expectations in the preseason. Both were seen to be in a rebuilding year, and yet, both made the postseason, with the Bucs winning a playoff game and the Rams a few bad late officiating calls away from advancing themselves. Combined with their Margin For Error, and Consistency Scores, they each finished as Top-10 most improved teams this year. Both Head Coaches deserved serious consideration.

3. Carolina was historically regressive on offense. The Panthers finished with the most improved defense in the entire NFL as it relates to allowing points per minute. Yet, they finished as the team with the highest weekly to week overall regression in the NFL. How is that possible?

Their offense was historically bad. While their defense improved 22% week to week throughout the season, tops in the NFL, the offense was regressing 57.8% week to week. It was so bad that it fully wiped away the value of their defensive improvement and the team as a whole saw the highest regression in Applied Scoring Behavior in the NFL.