Super Bowl 58 NFL Analytics: Applied Passing Behavior

Earlier, we did a Tale of the Tape for the NFL Analytics of Mahomes vs. Purdy. Using Applied Passing Behavior metrics, we will give the analytics for each matchup, reveal who has the edge, and give stat projections.

Reminder: the passing attack is a total team effort. As such, we typically assign this data to team offenses and defenses, rather than individual players, like the quarterback. In order to assign value to individual players based on performance, we would need to make assumptions about responsibilities and scheme that no one can make unless you are on each individual team.

So, in the interest of objectivity and accuracy, we keep it to team focused. At the end of the day all that really matters is which team wins the game.

Applied Passing Behavior examines several rates: Passing Yard Behavior Rate, Passing Touchdown Behavior Rate, Interception Behavior Rate, Passing Yards Allowed Behavior Rate, and Passing Touchdowns Allowed Behavior Rate.

This allows us to examine each of the offense and defense’s behavior when playing with, and against, the passing game.

Detailed definitions for all of this can be found in our glossary of terms.

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1. Chiefs Take The Edge In Applied Passing Behavior

To me, this is the most intriguing matchup in Super Bowl 58 based on our NFL analytics. So often when we focus on passing, we put all of our focus on the quarterback, and not enough on the defenses they’ll be facing. 

Yet, the Chiefs take the slight edge in this matchup precisely because of their defense.  

When looking at the Chiefs passing offense going against the 49ers passing defense, their averages and celeration rates put them on track to do what their behavior suggests they would have done any way, regardless of who they were facing. Mahomes and the Chiefs average almost exactly what the 49ers pass defense allows in passing yards on average. Same with passing touchdowns. 

But on other side, Purdy and the 49ers offense are going to face the best defense they have seen all season, and the Chiefs give up much less per minute than the 49ers gain, on average, in both yards and touchdowns through the air. 

If you average out the differences, it is most likely to bring the 49ers averages down slightly, even if not all the way down to the Chiefs typical performance levels. As we mentioned in our January 29th NFL analytics predictions piece on who took the tougher road, the 49ers worst performances have come in the VERY few times they have faced a top tier defense.  

Super Bowl 58 NFL Analytics Guide: Applied Rushing Behavior

Applied Rushing Behavior is our collection of NFL analytics metrics that examine each team’s behavior profiles in the rushing game, on both sides of the ball.

Earlier this week, we profiled each team in their approach to the run game, combined with a detailed explanation of how we measure the different metrics involved.

Below we put those metrics head to head for each team and reveal who has the edge in this phase of the game.

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1. The 49ers Have The Slight Edge…For Now

No matter how you dice it up, the 49ers running game is incredible. Not only was it among the best on a yard per minute basis, but they did it with remarkable consistency. A bounce rate of only x1.7 is a big indicator that very little externally can knock the 49ers off of their (ground) game.

The Chiefs defense, though, gives up almost a full yard less per minute than the 49ers gain. That could potentially pull their numbers down. What that number comes out to though, is still within the bounce envelope of the 49ers expected performance, and should still be an effective way for them to try and move the ball. 

On the other side is where it gets really interesting. 

 The Chiefs averages are a little misleading because there was a dramatic shift in their behavior after their bye week on 11/12/2023. As we mentioned in our Applied Rushing Behavior profiles, the Chiefs saw a massive improvement in all facets of their running offense following that bye week, including seeing their average yard per minute jump 11%, and their celeration rate see 39% improvement from before. 

When you combine that big turnaround with the season long 20% regression of the 49ers in ceding rushing yards per minute, which is among the largest regressions in the league, it stands to reason that any big advantage gained by the 49ers offense, is largely offset bye their defense and the late season commitment to the run game by Kansas City. 

The 49ers maintain a slight edge here, but do not be surprised to see the Chiefs use the run game to their advantage in search of a Super Bowl title. Time of possession will be key, and the Chiefs may have enough to control it. 

Between the Applied Passing Behavior and the Applied Rushing Behavior, it is hard not to like the Chief’s chances on Sunday. In the box score, this should be a very close matchup, and may come down to defense denying a touchdown, turning it into a field goal. 

They are coming into the game with the league’s top SPBx defense and their offense is well above league average. While the 49ers rank number one overall in our Margin For Error Power Rankings, the Chiefs are number two, with the behavioral momentum heading in their direction.

We have established that the Chiefs are more battle tested, having overcome a more difficult path in their schedule, along with the 49ers documented struggles against top defenses.

Then when looking at the applied analytics and seeing that the behavior trends largely move in the Chiefs favor, this is setting up to be a Chiefs victory. Below are the stat projections for the Big Game based on the analytics we have provided.

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