2024 AFC Championship Prediction: Chiefs Offense is More Battle Tested

1. Chiefs Faced Tougher Defenses

Remember the Second Law of Football Behavior: A defense’s primary job is to prevent their opponent from scoring points, and they can only do that when their opponent possesses the ball.

In terms of SPBx, or, points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, the Chiefs faced a much tougher schedule than Baltimore. 

Their opponents had an average rank of 14th in Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx). Compare to Baltimore’s in the next section.

2.  Chiefs Schedule Got Tougher At Time Of Turn Around

In our previous piece we mentioned how following their second game against Denver, the Chiefs offense finally began to come together with a 36% week to week improvement in their scoring behavior. 

Well, over those final 10 games is when they faced their toughest opponents. Their opponents had a average SPBx ranking of 12th, compare to 18th through their first eight games.

3. Chiefs Faced Top 10 SPBx Defenses

A whopping 70% of their final 10 games were against defenses that finished in the top 10 in SPBx. 

They went 5-2 and were a Kadarius Toney alignment blunder away from being 6-1 in those games. 

2024 AFC Championship Pick: Ravens Offense Had A Much Easier Path

1. Ravens Offense Faced An Easier Test

With an average SPBx rank of 20th, the Ravens offense was not tested nearly as much as the Chiefs. 

2.  Ravens Never Saw Dramatic Change In Difficulty

From start to finish, the Ravens essentially saw the same caliber of defense throughout the season, on average. 

3. Ravens Saw Almost No Top 10 Teams

Unlike the Chiefs, the Ravens saw almost no top 10 defense in SPBx during the season. It would be week 15 until they saw their first one, San Francisco. 

While they won that game, we mustn’t forget how much of an outlier that game was. The 49ers offense put the defense in a bad spot all game, turning the ball over 5 times in that game, and allowed a big punt return that had an additional 15 yards tacked on due to penalty.

This allowed the Ravens offense to score 24 points in a combined 6 minutes and 45 seconds, covering only 103 yards…COMBINED. 

The Chiefs come into this game with the number one ranked defense in SPBx.