Football Behavior’s Second Law of Football Behavior, focusing on the defense’s primary job to prevent the opposing offense from scoring, resonates deeply with the strategic and analytical aspects of NFL football. The second of The Three Laws Of Football Behavior, this law correctly places the defense role as a semi-dependent unit of the offense, and is even more under the control of time than the offense is.
The Second Law of Football Behavior
Reviewing the Concept of The Three Laws of Football Behavior
Time matters. When we measure behavior, especially behavior change, we should be doing it within the context of time. Especially in a sport like football where time is finite. There’s only so much of it.
Behaviors can only occur with the passage of time, and for a duration of time. This is basic physics. So when an offense is NOT on the field, it cannot perform its primary function of scoring points. Possession time is not being counted, behavior cannot occur.
The same is true for defense. When not on the field, it also cannot perform its primary function of preventing points. Opportunity (possession time) is not occurring, therefore behavior cannot occur. This is the philosophy behind the Second Law of Football Behavior.
Why “Points Allowed Per Game” Is Faulty
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Overall this stat makes sense. A game is played. Points were allowed. Lets take the average and decide if its good compared to other teams.
However, the defense is not on the field for the entire game. And measuring its effectiveness as if it is can lead to explanatory fictions, which is the same concept we discussed in our First Law Of Football Behavior explainer.
Points per game is accounting for time where the defense has no opportunity to prevent points, and is accounting for points scored when the defense isn’t even on the field (special teams touchdowns).
Let’s take two teams: The Miami Dolphins and Las Vegas Raiders during the 2022 season.
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The Dolphins and Raiders each scored ~23 points per game.
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They also each gave up ~24 points per game.
Points Per Game would have you believe that these teas are equal. But the Dolphins went 9-8, reaching the playoffs, and the Raiders went 6-11.
How?
Well points per game does not tell the whole story. On the defensive side, measuring for ONLY when the defense is on the field and time of possession allowed is being counted:
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The Dolphins had a score prevention rate of 0.666 points per minute of opponent possession time
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The Raiders had a score prevention rate of 0.8 points per minute of opponent possession time.
Less than two tenths of a point per minute does not seem like a huge difference, but let’s look at how that adds up over the course of a game.
At the Dolphins 2022 geometric mean score prevention behavior rate (0.6) and their average time of possession allowed in 2022 (30m 45s), they would be projected to give up 20.47 points.
But because the Raiders gave up less possession time per game (29m 49s), but a higher geometric scoring behavior prevention rate (0.8), they would be projected to give up 23.84 points.
That is over a field goal difference, and in an NFL game, you best believe a field goal’s difference is HUGE in determining a potential outcome.
Introducing Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx)
A more precise measure of defensive performance is our score prevention behavior rate. This is measured in points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.
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This measures defensive performance ONLY when the defense is on the field, in the units of time its actually is given to perform it’s primary function.
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Special teams touchdowns are NOT considered in SPBx.
But SPBx is not enough. Averages are almost never good measure of performance. Especially int he hopes of making future predictions.
If the NFL was uniform standardized environment, averages could prove helpful. However, hopefully we all know by now that it is not. It is multiverse. Each of the 32 franchises is its own independent environment. Think of it like Earth-1 and Earth-2, and so on.
Using averages to make predictions when the populations are operating, or behaving, in unique and different environments, amounts to no more than a statistical guess with a 50/50 chance of being correct.
And even though with SPBx we look at geometric means rather than averages, which is even more precise and accounts for exponential change, we must also focus on trends.
Celeration Matters
How many points a team is giving up on average per minute isn’t helpful if Team A and B both have an SPBx of 0.75, but Team A is regressing at a rate of 10% week to week, while Team B is improving by 10% week to week.
Which team is most likely to do better in the following week? Likely the one whose behavior change is trending in the right direction!
So we also look at celeration trends, which is explained in our glossary of terms. When we make a prediction, or look at our power rankings, we are not just looking at where teams are at the moment, but where their behavior is likely heading.
This is much more precise than just looking at points per game, which is susceptible to being influenced by outliers.
Team Performance Needs Offense More
the reason the law that governs our behavioral analysis of defense is second, is because the defense cannot win a game on it’s own. It can literally give up zero points, and the game can still end in a tie or a loss.
If the offense does not score or gives up a score to the opposing defense via a return touchdown or safety, the defense pitching a shutout does not matter.
The reverse is not true. You could argue that the defense could pitch a shutout, and record a score of its own and win the game. Of course, technically you would be right. However, return touchdowns of any kind are considered outlier outcomes here at Football Behavior. Plays so rare that we don’t consider them when measuring behavior.
Return touchdowns by a defense happened on just 0.03% of all play outcomes in 2022. Safeties were even rarer. So, 99.97% of the time, the defense cannot win a game on its own.
Consider This:
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13 out of the top 14 playoff Scoring Behavior Rate teams in 2022 made the playoffs. The Top two played in the Super Bowl, the top team won it.
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The Lions were the one exception, and it should be noted that they had a bottom three team in SPBx, and an NFC South team needed to go in due to the rules.
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Only 60% of the top 14 SPBx teams made the playoffs.
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Through Week 14 of the 2023 season, all of the top 14 teams in SBx are above .500 and in playoff contention.
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Through Week 14 of the 2023 season, four of the top 14 teams in SBx are below .500 and one of the top two teams has been eliminated from playoff contention.
If you’re going to dominate on one side of the ball it needs to be offense. But of course the goal is to have both. Under standing defensive behavior, and how to measure it, not only helps fans understand their favorite teams better, but also aids front office personnel build more complimentary rosters, and coaches create their game plans week to week.
Applying The Second Law of Football Behavior
Strategic Implications for Defensive Coaches
Building a strategy around the Second Law of Football Behavior involves focusing on minimizing the opponent’s scoring opportunities and maximizing the efficiency of the defensive plays. Coaches should focus on:
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Creating Pressure: Implement schemes that disrupt the quarterback, like blitzes or defensive line stunts. Pressure on the quarterback often leads to incomplete passes or turnovers. Either of those outcomes limits opponent time of possession. Incompletions stop the clock, and turnovers give the ball back to your offense, ending the possession opportunity for the opponent.
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Strengthening the Secondary: Develop a secondary that can handle different types of coverage, from man-to-man to various zone coverages. Being able to mix coverages allows you to disguise pre and post snap, which could force the quarterback to hold onto the ball longer, allowing your pass rush to get there and create pressure.
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Linebacker Versatility: Have linebackers who cannot only stop the run but also cover tight ends or running backs in passing situations. Stopping the run is paramount to a good time-limiting strategy. Running the ball keeps the clock moving. stopping the run and forcing the opposing offense into long down and distances that are passing downs gives the defense an advantage in creating pressure and clock stopping opportunities.
Player Acquisition for Effective Defense
The type of players to acquire should align with this strategy:
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Dominant Defensive Linemen: Not just edge rushers, but Interior defensive lineman who can pressure the quarterback and stop the run. Think Christian Wilkins-type players.
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Agile and Smart Secondary Players: Those who can adapt to various coverages and react quickly to plays. Play identification is equally as important as athletic ability in the secondary. Good film study gives these players an edge in getting their hands on the ball in either forcing incompletions or creating turnovers.
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Versatile Linebackers: Athletes capable of both pass coverage and run stopping.
Coverages and Schemes
Effective coverages and schemes to limit opponent time of possession include:
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Mixed Coverage Schemes: Blending man and zone coverages can confuse quarterbacks and disrupt passing routes.
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Aggressive Blitz Packages: Frequent, well-timed blitzes can pressure the quarterback, forcing quick decisions and potential mistakes.
Risks Involved
The risks in these strategies include potential exposure to big plays if blitzes are picked up or coverage is broken, and the physical and mental fatigue of players due to aggressive defensive play.
This is why, you must ALSO have an offense capable of picking up the slack through versatility. You must be able to score quickly, but also possess the ball and make sure your defense isn’t on the field too long and too much.
This is the essence of complimentary football.
Working in Concert with the Offense
A defense’s effectiveness is partly dependent on its offense. The best defenses can quickly end an opponent’s possession, but this effort is in vain if their offense cannot maintain possession and score points. A balance between a time-efficient defense and a ball-controlling offense is crucial for overall team success.
The Importance of Time in Football and Applied Behavior Analysis
We have established that time is a crucial element in football, as each game is time-capped, and performance can only occur with the passage of time. Efficient use of time, especially for the defense, is vital. Getting off the field quickly and limiting the opponent’s time of possession are key to a successful defense. This mirrors principles in applied behavior analysis where behaviors are observed and measured across time intervals, emphasizing the importance of temporal aspects in understanding and modifying behaviors.
Paradigm Shift in Football Analysis
The second law of football behavior could mark a paradigm shift in football analysis. Traditional metrics often fail to account for the dynamic interplay between offense and defense over time. Measuring defensive efficiency in terms of points allowed per minute of possession time offers a more precise and context-sensitive metric. It considers not only the effectiveness of the defense in isolation but also its interaction with the offense’s performance and the temporal dynamics of the game.
In conclusion, the second law of football behavior provides a nuanced and comprehensive framework for analyzing and strategizing in football. It highlights the critical role of defense in preventing scores, the interdependence between offense and defense, and the paramount importance of time. By focusing on points allowed per minute of possession time, coaches and analysts can gain deeper insights into a team’s defensive efficiency, leading to more effective strategies and a potential shift in how football performance is understood and measured.
