Our Week 6 Thursday Night Football prediction for the Broncos vs. Chiefs looks at the improvement of both offenses. What does this tell us about this matchup? The Broncos likely won’t win, but it may not be because of Russell Wilson and the offense.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, October 12th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- GEHA Field At Arrowhead, Kansas City, Missouri
- Odds:
- Chiefs -625 | Broncos +450
Broncos Offense Is Not The Problem
TNF Prediction: Russell Wilson Has The Broncos Offense Improving Over 2022 Levels
Our point of focus for our Week 6 Thursday Night Football prediction is the Denver Broncos offense. Much maligned last year, justifiably so, they have not been the root issue this year. Many people were willing to sign the death certificate on the career of Russell Wilson, but in 2023, he is just outside the top 10 in several passing categories, while second in the league in touchdown passes and third for fewest interceptions.
The offense has improved from last year to this year.
- Their Scoring Behavior rate (SBx) is up 41% from last season
- In 2022 they averaged 0.528 points per minute of possession time
- in 2023, that average is up to 0.746
- The offense is trending up with a 42% growth rate week to week in SBx
- The improvement is coming amid the same rate of voariance as their 2022 performances
- In 2022 their bounce rate was x2.5
- In 2023 through five games their bounce rate is x2.5
Thursday Night Football Prediction: The Broncos Offense Is Better Than Last Year
The Denver defense is what is in need of some work, especially in this Broncos vs. Chiefs matchup. However, since giving up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, they have seen two consecutive improved performances from the week before. If they can stabilize, it may be too little too late, but the Broncos could be a team on the rise into 2024.
The Chiefs Offense Is Getting There
TNF Prediction: Patrick Mahomes And The Chiefs Are Adapting To A New Environment
One interesting matchup in the Broncos vs. Chiefs is the slow starting Chiefs Offense. The Chiefs offense underwent a pretty substantial environment change this offseason. They had a near complete wide receiver turnover, with many players getting snap shares higher than they have ever received before. Additionally, they have completely changed out their starting tackles from a year ago.
All of this has led to a slow start, but there are signs they are coming out of it, which leads to our Thursday Night Football prediction for Week 6.
- Chiefs average SBx is 0.768 points per minute of possession time
- That is a 17.25% regression from last year
- The average does not tell the whole story
- Through five games, the Chiefs SBx is trending up
- They are showing a 35% growth trend week to week
- Within 2-3 weeks they should be scoring near their 2022 SBx average
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Chiefs Offense Is Beginning To Gel
To make our Thursday Night Football picks, we look at trends over averages. Averages cannot tell the whole story across the multiverse of the NFL. The Chiefs offense is trending up, and with where their defense is, that should scare the rest of the NFL.
Broncos vs. Chiefs Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 6 thinks that while the Broncos defense is improving, so is the Chiefs offense. This means the margin for error against the Chiefs defense for the Broncos Offense likely won’t be big enough to overcome.
Broncos vs. Chiefs TNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
- TNF Prediction: Final Score
- Broncos 21, Chiefs 32
- Moneyline
- We are NOT placing a bet on the moneyline
- Spread
- Chiefs Alt Spread -5.5 (-250)
- Broncos Alt Spread +16.5 (-225)
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- Game Risk Report
- 21.4% Chance Of Outlier Performances, likely the winning team wins this one by 7+ points
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**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening