In the Football Behavior Week 3 Thursday Night Football prediction, we have a Giants vs. 49ers matchup that wonders if Daniel Jones can overcome the 49ers elite defense. Brock Purdy, on the other hand, has been everything the 49ers need from the quarterback position. With our Pigeon Picks model, you will be surprised what we decided on for our Thursday Night Football pick.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When: Thursday Night, September 21st, 8:20 pm, est
- Where: Levi Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- Odds: 49ers -550, Giants +400
Brock Purdy Is A Worthy QB 1
TNF Pick: Brock Purdy Is A Worth QB 1
One reason why the 49ers are heavily favored in our Thursday Night Football prediction is the steady play of Brock Purdy. In the offseason, while he was recovering from elbow surgery, there was much debate about whether he should return to the top spot on the depth chart.
Head coach Kyle Shanahan never wavered, despite the protests and wishes for Trey Lance to be anointed of many fans. The reason why is simple. The 49ers offense behaves better with Purdy under center:
- With Jimmy Garappolo under center to start 2022, the 49ers averaged a Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) of 0.63 points per minute of possession time.
- When Christian McCaffery came over, their SBx increased by only 13% to 0.709 points per minute of possession time.
- On 12/4/2022, Brock Purdy took over for Garoppolo for the final seven games including playoffs. The 49ers SBx increased by 40% to 0.99 points per minute of possession time.
- If averaged out over a full season, that would have ranked number one in the NFL.
Thursday Night Football Pick: The Orange Lines Show The 49ers Scoring Behavior Went To The Next Level With Purdy Under Center
Two weeks into the 2023 NFL season, the Purdy led offense has continued its elite scoring behavior, averaging an SBx of 0.96 points per minute of possession. He doesn’t put up prolific box score numbers, but what Coach Shanahan understands is that it isn’t about him. The value his individual behavior provides, aids in the team as a whole performing its best behavior.
Giants Face Their Toughest Test Yet
TNF Pick: Daniel Jones May Be Stuck In The Hole This Time
Want the easiest Thursday Night Football prediction of the young 2023 NFL season? If the Giants start how they did against the Cardinals in Week 2, against the 49ers, there won’t be a magical second half comeback.
There are two reasons for this.
- The 49ers defense has been nothing short of elite for several years now. In 2022, they were among the top 5 defenses in average Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx).
- The 49ers gave up an average SPBx of 0.529 points per minute of opponent possession time
- To start 2023, they have picked up where they left off, holding opponents to an average of 0.505 points per minute of possession time.
- The Giants defense has been regressing since the start of 2022.
- They have regressed at a rate of 4% week over week
- Their last four games played have yielded an SPBx of 0.95 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.
Thursday Night Football Pick: 49ers Are Not The Team To Fall behind On
Why does the Giants defense matter to the behavior of their offense in our TNF prediction? According to the Pigeon Picks sports betting model, the behavioral profile of the Giants defense, combined with the aforementioned behavioral profile of the 49ers offense under Brock Purdy means there will be limited opportunities to stage a comeback like they did in Week 2 when facing a Cardinals team just happy to be there.
Giants vs. 49ers Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 3 starts with examining the spread and the moneyline. We predict this game to be pretty lopsided, and its one of the rare games where our TNF pick has little edge against the books. We seem to be in lockstep. The behavioral profiles of each team, which include significant environmental factors and two weeks of 2023 performance behaviors, has us sitting some of these bets out.
Giants vs. 49ers TNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
- TNF Prediction: Final Score
- 49ers 30, Giants 20
- Moneyline
- 49ers -550*
- Spread
- 49ers +10*
*Football Behavior did not bet on the moneyline or against the spread in this Thursday Night Football matchup. At -550 odds, the ROI is not worth it to us. Likewise, because we have predicted a 10 point 49ers victory, which is the exact spread set by the books, we have not placed a bet against the spread.
- Dutching: Winning Margins (Proportionally Bet $30 Across All Three)
- 49ers By 7-12 (+370) (bet $10.54)
- 49ers By 13-18 (+390) (bet $9.98)
- 49ers By 19-24 (+525) (bet $9.78)
$30 total. If any one of those winning margin hits, you win a NET profit of $17.41, for a payout of $47.41. Click here if you’re wondering “What is dutching?”, for a full explainer and how to guide on how to bet with our favorite betting strategy.
- QB Prop Picks
- To see our Thursday Night Football picks for QB Props, subscriber to the Pigeon Picks Newsletter below with a simple click!
- Game Risk Report
- 22.5% Chance Of Outlier Performances, likely the winning team wins this one by 7+ points.
Disclaimer: We are went 32-15-2 in Week 2 with a +33.05% ROI, along with a 29-14 overall Week 1 record, and a +32% ROI. In 2022 we ranked inside the top 10 for ROI by SharpRank.
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening