Our Week 1 Sunday Night Football prediction will shed light on this Giants vs. Cowboys rivalry. Should the Cowboys be paying closer attention to Giants, or are they too worried about catching Philly? Based on our Pigeon Picks model, we think there could be an upset brewing for this Sunday Night Football Pick.

Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

  • When:
    • Sunday Night, 9/10/2023
    • 8:20 pm EST Kickoff
  • Where:
    • MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
  • Odds:
    • Cowboys -180
    • Giants +150

Don’t forget, in addition to our SNF picks, and our predictions for Monday Night Football, our model gives final score predictions and behavioral analytics for every game, every week to Pigeon Picks subscribers. Our Week 1 TNF Picks went 4-1 with a +65.5% ROI!

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  • Much More!

 

The Giants Offense Is Trending

For this Sunday Night Football prediction, we look back to 2022. Last year, the Giants offense had an average scoring behavior (SBx) of 0.7 points scored per minute of possession time. That ranked them 13th in the NFL. However, that does not tell the whole story. 

In addition to being remarkably consistent week to week with a x1.7 bounce rate, they were an offense trending in the right direction. In fact, week over week, the Giants offense was scoring more efficiently at a 6% improvement rate. Based on Time Of Possession projections, that .1 difference between their season average and their celeration trend is worth 3.3 points over the course of a full game. 

Or said another way, basically the point spread in this Week 1 game.

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Giants Offense Keeps Trending

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Giants Offense Keeps Trending

 

What About The Elite Cowboys Defense?

They were elite in 2022, on the whole. However, for this Cowboys vs. Giants prediction, the behavioral context matters. 

They began to spring some leaks following their bye week. In fact, their score prevention behavior (SPBx) saw a 51% REGRESSION from what it was prior to the bye week. 

  • In 8 games before the bye week, they had SPBx of 0.479 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.
    • That would have been by far the lowest SPBx in the league. 
  • In 10 games after the bye week, they had an SPBx of 0.721
    • That was a 51% regression from before the bye week.

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Orange Lines Show Cowboys Regression

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Orange Lines Show Cowboys Regression

 

When we make our SNF prediction, we need to consider all of the behavioral context. It is that context that leads us towards a true representation of each team. 

New York vs. Dallas Sunday Night Football Pick

Daniel Jones Development Is At The Core Of Our Sunday Night Football Prediction

Daniel Jones Development Is At The Core Of Our Sunday Night Football Prediction

 

Now that we have supplied the core behavioral analytics, it is time to make our predictions for Sunday Night Football. The Giants offense is on the rise, and, while we argued on behalf of their 2022 behavior, we have seen that momentum continue in the preseason. In his lone start, Daniel Jones finished 8/9 passing and a touchdown. 

Likewise, this SNF pick would not be complete if we didn’t mention Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense, if only briefly. After Dak returned from injury in 2022 he started the next 12 games. Over those 12 games, the Cowboys saw sharp regression behaviorally. The Cowboys averaged a 30% regression week over week in their SBx, greatly influenced by the showings in two of their final three games, which were playoff games.

The trends are pushing us towards the Giants being the SNF pick Week 1.

Giants vs. Cowboys SNF Pick & Prediction

The official SNF prediction Week 1, from the Pigeon Picks sports betting model:

  • Final Score Prediction
    • Giants 23 | Dallas 22
  • Spread
    • Giants +3.5 (-120*) 
    • *NOTE: The Giants covering the spread is at minus odds, meaning they are considered favorites by the books to cover the 3.5 point spread, while the Cowboys odds of covering -3.5 is at +100. 
  • Moneyline
    • Giants +150 
  • Dutching Winning Margins 

*We bet one unit concurrently on both, only need to win one to make a profit

    • Giants By 1-6 +400
    • Cowboys By 1-6 +280
  • Game Risk Report
    • 24.1% Chance Of Outlier Performances
    • 5th Safest Game To Bet On Week 1

Disclaimer: To open the season, the Pigeon Picks model went 4-1 overall with a 65.6% ROI. Overall in 2022, it went 193-91-7, with a 91% ROI, which ranked inside the top 10 by SharpRank. Subscribe below for the model’s FULL potential!

**Cowboys vs. Giants Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Friday AM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit