The Football Behavior Week 1 Thursday Night Football prediction, we have an opening night Chiefs vs. Lions matchup that we have been warning bettors to be sharp on since early August.

With the Travis Kelce injury the line has narrowed, but based on our Pigeon Picks model, we still found some value in our Thursday Night Football Pick.

 

Thursday Night Football

Prediction: What To

Know

 

 

  • When: Thursday Night, September 7th, 8:20 pm, Est
  • Where: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
  • Odds: Chiefs -225 | Lions +185

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Lions Defense Has People Sleeping

 

Our Thursday Night Football pick takes a look at the Lions defense. Traditional measures, like points per game, would tell you that the Lions finished 2022 ranked fifth best on offense, and third worst on defense.

Being the third worst team on defense is NOT what you want to be going up against the Kansas City Chiefs. But what these traditional statistics do not account for is behavior, and its exponential trends over time.

Consider this: the Lions defense that ended the year is not who they were at the beginning of 2022. The traditional stats show they gave up an average of 25.1 points per game.

But that number includes the first four games of the season where they gave up a staggering 1.14 points per minute of possession time on average. That equated to 34 points per game.

TNF Prediction: Slope Of Green Lines Trending Down Shows 20% SPBx Improvement Week Over Week

TNF Prediction: Slope Of Green Lines Trending Down Shows 20% SPBx Improvement Week Over Week

 

The coaching staff made dramatic changes to the scheme on defense, simplifying it. That created a trending behavior change that led to 20% improvement week over week.

Over their final 13 games, they gave up an average of 0.745 points per minute of opponent possession time, a 34% improvement from their first four games.

TNF Prediction: Placement Of Orange Lines Shows The Improvement In SPBx After Scheme Changes Were Made

TNF Prediction: Placement Of Orange Lines Shows The Improvement In SPBx After Scheme Changes Were Made

 

What’s more, their best five performances came in the final eight weeks of the season, two of which came against playoff teams, and a third in a do or die game against a division rival on the road. Our Chiefs vs. Lions prediction takes all of this into account.

 

The Offenses Are Two Of The Best

 

The Kansas City Chiefs finished ranked number one in scoring behavior, averaging 0.928 points per minute of possession through the 20 games they played in. Impressively, they did this while having logged no “extreme” outliers. 

The Lions finished ranked 7th in scoring behavior at 0.775 points per minute of possession time. However, the Lions had two extreme outliers in weeks 5 and 7 of 2022 when they scored zero and six points, respectively.

If you remove those two outliers, in the other 15 games they averaged 0.958 points per minute of possession time. That would have ranked them higher than the Chiefs.

Also, with the news that new pass rusher Charles Omenihu will be suspended for the first six games of the regular season, he will miss this game. Chris Jones still does not have a contract and will probably miss this TNF game tonight due to his contract dispute. The Chiefs defense will be down at least one, maybe more, key pieces when this game takes place.

These are two of the best scoring offenses in football. One will face a defense missing key pieces, and the other will face one on the rise. Our TNF pick tonight forecasts a close game, and this is a big reason why.

 

Chiefs vs. Lions

 

 

 

Thursday Night Football

 

Pick

 

Jared Goff Is A Big Reason For This Thursday Night Football Prediction

Jared Goff Is A Big Reason For This Thursday Night Football Prediction

The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 1 starts with when we grabbed the Lions at +7. We thought that spread was likely too big based on the behaviors of each team, and the stability of their environments carrying over from 2022. We alerted our Football Behavior Newsletter subscribers that they needed to act fast.

Since then, the line moved to Lions +6, and now with Travis Kelce’s status up in the air, it is Lions +4.5. The value that was originally there has diminished. However, with the final score prediction for this Chiefs vs. Lions pick, there is still value to be had.

Chiefs vs. Lions TNF Pick & Prediction

All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit

  • TNF Prediction: Final Score
    • Lions 23, Chiefs 26
  • Moneyline
    • Chiefs -225*
  • Spread
    • Lions +4.5*
  • Dutching: Winning Margins (2 units placed on each, concurrently)
    • Chiefs By 1-6 (+310)
    • Lions By 1-6 (+450)
    • Chiefs By 7-12 (+400)
  • Game Risk Report
    • 20.8% Chance Of Outlier Performances
    • Safest Week 1 Game For Betting

 

Disclaimer: In 2022, the Pigeon Picks model went 80-46-8 against the spread. Overall it went 193-91-7, with a 91% ROI, which ranked inside the top 10 by SharpRank. Subscribe below for the model’s FULL potential

*Football Behavior’s Pigeon Picks Model took the Lions +7 back on August 5th
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening