NFL Analytics Prediction: Chiefs Prove Elite Status En Route to Super Bowl

1. Chiefs Continue Beat Top Defenses

The Chiefs have played against a top 10 defense in terms of score prevention behavior rate (SPBx: points allowed per minute of possession time) in seven of their last nine games, including the playoffs. 

They went 6-3 over those nine games, including winning their last five straight. They were 5-2 in the seven games against top 10 SPBx defenses over that stretch, winning their last three straight, all in the post season.    

The 49ers have the 6th ranked SPBx defense heading into the Super Bowl. 

2.  Chiefs Challenged Late In Season With Tough Offenses

The Chiefs faced six top 10 SBx offenses (scoring behavior rate: points scored per minute of possession time) during the season. They went 4-2, including wins in each of their last three games, which were all in the playoffs.

 Baltimore entered Championship Sunday with the number one ranked SBx offense in the NFL. Kansas City held them to 10 points in 22 minutes and 30 seconds. The 49ers come into the Super Bowl ranked number one following Sunday’s win over the Lions. 

No team in the NFL has faced the number one ranked SBx offense in back to back weeks. 

3. Chiefs Faces Slightly Tougher Overall Schedule Than 49ers

The Chiefs opponents combined to tank 14th in Margin For Error, which is the overall ranking a team receives based on how much room for error they have between their offensive and defensive performance. 

The Chiefs faced six top 10 teams during the season. They went 4-2 in those games. This includes all three postseason games, which they have won. The three teams they have faced in the playoffs were all ranked 6th or better. 

The 49ers are ranked 1st heading into the Super Bowl. 

NFL Analytics Predictions: 49ers More Impressive on Defense?

1. 49ers Defense Faced A Tough Road

The 49ers defense faced opponents who combined for the 14th ranking in SBx. That means on average, the 49ers defense faced the worst playoff-capable offense.

While that may not sound impressive, it is actually one of the more difficult schedule for any defense in the league, and slightly tougher than the one the Chiefs faced.

They faced eight top 10 SBx offenses, going 6-2 against those teams. However, they lost two of their last three games, with their victory over the Lions being their lone win in that span. They gave up 31 points in 27 minutes for an SPBx of 1.1 points allowed per minute of possession.

The Chiefs come in ranked 12th in SBx.  

2.  49ers Offense Faced An Easier Schedule

Compared to their defense, the 49ers offense faced a much easier schedule. Their opponents had defenses ranked an average of 23rd in SPBx. 

They didn’t face a top 10 defense in SPBx until their 10th game when the beat Seattle. The only other time they faced a top 10 SPBx defense was the Ravens five games later, a game they lost. 

The 49ers faced defenses that were ranked 26th or worse in SPBx eight times over their last nine games, with the Ravens game being the lone exception.

The Chiefs are ranked number one in SPBx.   

3. 49ers Faced Slightly Below Average Opponents Overall

The 49ers opponents had an average Margin For Error ranking of 17th overall. 

They played 11 games against teams ranked inside the top 19. The rest of their games were against opponent ranked 20th or worse. They went 7-4 in those 11 games. 

They played five games against top 10 Margin For Error teams. They went 3-2 in those games, losing their last two, which came in their last five games. They have not faced a top 10 Margin For Error team in the playoffs. 

The Chiefs come into this game ranked number two in Margin For Error, behind only…the San Francisco 49ers.