Lions vs. 49ers
2024 NFC Championship Game PickIf You’re Short On Time…
- The Lions Used Their Bye Week Wisely
- 49ers Need Deebo Samuel Healthy
- How We Bet…
- Lions +6.5 (-105)
- 49ers ML (-290)
- Lions OVER 20.5 (-140)
- 49ers UNDER 30.5 (-140)
- FULL NFL Margin For Error Rankings
- 2024 AFC Championship Pick
2024 NFC Championship Pick: Lions Make Most Of Bye Week
Margin For Error Rank
SBx Rank
%
SBx Improvement Index
SPBx Rank
%
SPBx Improvement Index
1. Lions Limp Into Bye
After a big offensive awakening in 2022, the 2023 Lions started slower.
Their SBx was regressing 37% heading into their bye week, with five of their eight games played coming in with an SBx UNDER 0.7 points scored per minute of possession time.
2. Bye Week Spark
Following the bye week, the Lions saw their average SBx jump 43% from an average of 0.657 to 0.941 points per minute of possession time.
That would have been best in the league for the whole season, and turned their SBx Improvement Index into a season long 6% growth.
3. Can Lions Defense Continue Trend?
The reason the Lions have such a poor Margin For Error Rank relative to their high performing offense, is their defense is ranked 30th in average SPBx.
But, as we are one to say, the average doesn’t’t tell the whole story. Since that bye week, the Lions defense went from 1% regression before, to 11% improvement week to week after.
They also saw a 13% drop in their average SPBx from before the bye week.
3 Keys For Lions vs. 49ers
Key #1
The Lions must have their defense continue their 11% week to week improvement trend.
In both playoff games, they almost allowed the Rams to win it late, and the Buccaneers to get back into it.
The 49ers have the best offense they’ve faced all season, 2nd in SBx. An SPBx of 0.8 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time would be a huge benefit.
Key #2
The Lions offense cannot go cold. They woke up late against Tampa, but were essentially shut down in the second half vs LA.
The 49ers have the 4th ranked SPBx defense, but they are susceptible in the run game. Detroit must excel there in order to win the game.
Key #3
They must be smart about their aggression. Head coach Dan Campbell is known as one of the most aggressive coaches in terms of fourth down and two-point conversions.
This is almost always a good thing. However, there are times he goes purely off of the historical average numbers and not the momentary environmental situation he is currently in.
Against this 49ers offense, you have to choose your spots for aggression carefully and be mindful of the moment and the actual humans in the game being played.
2024 NFC Championship Pick: 49ers Need All Hands On Deck
Margin For Error Rank
SBx Rank
%
SBx Improvement Index
SPBx Rank
%
SPBx Improvement Index
1. 49ers At Their Best With Everyone
49ers average SBx is 54% better with Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams, and Christian McCaffery healthy and playing
2. Recently Not At Their Best
They have seen a 33% drop off of their season SBx average over their last three games with Brock Purdy as the starter
3. Defense Needs To Step Up
The 49ers defense has done a great job keeping points off of the board, coming in 4th overall in SPBx.
However, they have been a bit more “bend but don’t break” over the last several games and eventually, that can catch up with you.
3 Keys For 49ers vs. Lions
Key #1
49ers offense needs everyone healthy. In the five games to start the season, they averaged over 1 point per minute of possession.
Then they lost Samuel and Williams, and their average SBx dropped 37% over those three games.
When they returned, their average SBx jumped back up 54%. That’s a huge difference. With Samuel leaving after the first drive against Green Bay, that is the key to look for.
Key #2
Time of Possession. We have this game as a virtual one point spread favoring the 49ers. Each team is projected to possess the ball a little over 29 minutes.
That leaves 2 minutes up for grabs. The team that grabs it, and even extends it, will win. The 49ers need to be that team and extend that one point cushion
Key #3
The 49ers defense. 10 of their 17 games played were UNDER their 0.593 SPBx average. However, four of their last five were OVER it.
They need to buck that trend and keep their SPBx at 0.75 or less to increase their chances of a victory. If they can create an outlier event like a defensive score, it’s almost a lock that they will win.
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