The Football Behavior Thursday Night Football pick highlights the consistently poor performance of the Bears defense with Matt Eberflus as head coach. We also take a look at the increasing volatility of the Commanders offense. The two come together in this Bears vs. Commanders Week 5 matchup.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, October 5th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- FedEx Field, Landover, MD
- Odds:
- Bears +230 | Commanders -290
Bears Defense Is Atrocious
TNF Pick: Matt Eberflus’ Defense Is Failing
Our point of focus for our Week 5 Sunday Night Football pick is the atrocity that is the Bears defense. After blowing a 21 point lead to the Broncos in Week 4, they have cemented themselves as the worst defense in the league. In 2022, they were also the worst defense in the league. Defense is supposed to be Head Coach Matt Eberflus’ speciality, so what happened?
Trading Roquan Smith was a mistake.
- In 2022, prior to trading Roquan Smith, the Bears defense averaged a Score Prevention Behavior rate (SPBx) of 0.643 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time
- They were improving by 47% on their SPBx week over week
- They were improving by 47% on their SPBx week over week
- After trading Smith in November of 2022, the defense collapsed
- To finish out 2022 they averaged an SPBx of 1.001 points allowed per minute of possession time
- That was a 54% regression
- To start 2023, they are averaging an SPBx of 0.953 points allowed per minute of possession time.
- That ranks them slightly behind only the Broncos
- The Broncos number is skewed by the 70 points they allowed to Miami in Week 3
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bears Defense Is The Worst
That’s how bad the Bears defense has been. Denver gave up 70 points, and the Bears are only slightly behind them in average SPBx. It is because the “bad” has been consistent, dating back to November 2022. What’s worse is that Matt Eberflus has failed to correct it or fix it in 12 games, and with personnel who were previously productive in other environments. The defensive environment is the issue for the Bears and that starts and stops with Eberflus.
The Commanders Are Volatile
TNF Pick: The Commanders Offense Has Been More Volatile Than The Stock Market
The Commanders make this a tough Thursday Night Football pick because of the offensive volatility they have shown. They have yet to have back to back games that were an improvement on the week before. Their Week 3 game vs Buffalo was almost certainly outlier, but still, how can we be sure? Truth is, we can’t.
- Commanders have an x5.8 bounce rate through four games in 2023
- Their high was their Week 2 game against the Broncos with an SBx of 1
- Their low was Week 3 against the Bills with an SBx of 0.12
- That is the biggest jump in back to back SBx in the NFL
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Commanders Offense Is Too Volatile
To make our Thursday Night Football picks, we love to see consistency. The Commanders have not show any. That said, they are going to be facing the worst defense in football through four weeks. If there was a week to improve upon the week before and keep the momentum moving, this is it.
Bears vs. Commanders Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 4 starts with examining the spread and the moneyline. We predict this game to be closer than the 6.5 point spread suggests. We feel the books are overweighting the Commanders performance vs Philadelphia. That said, we are quite wary of the volatility the Commanders bring to this matchup.
Bears vs. Commanders TNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
- TNF Prediction: Final Score
- Bears 26, Commanders 27
- Bears 26, Commanders 27
- Moneyline
- We are NOT placing a bet on the moneyline
- We are NOT placing a bet on the moneyline
- Spread (What Is An Alternate Spread?)
- Bears +6.5
- Bears Alt Spread +12.5 (-240) has been included in a 12 leg parlay
- Bears Alt Spread +10.5 (-190) has been included in a 5 leg parlay
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- Educational Resources:
- QB Prop Picks
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- Game Risk Report
- 35% Chance Of Outlier Performances, likely the winning team wins this one by under 7 points.
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening