Football Behavior’s Chiefs vs. Jets Week 4 Sunday Night Football pick forecasts the likely behavior of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Kansas City Chiefs have begun to go on a roll since their opening night loss to the Lions. But it isn’t the offense that has been most impressive. The Jets, meanwhile, continue to suffer the effects of Aaron Rodgers opening night season-ending injury. Zach Wilson as picked up where left off from in 2022 in terms of on field behavior, and that’s not a good thing. This was an easy Sunday Night Football prediction for the Pigeon Picks model, as far as the winner. The rest of the picks? Let’s just say there’s some intrigue.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Sunday Night, 10/1/2023, 8:20 pm EST Kickoff
- Where:
- MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
- Odds:
- Chiefs -417 | Jets +330
Behavior Profile: The Chiefs Defense Has Been Dominant
Sunday Night Football Prediction: The Chiefs Defense Has Been The Rally Point Of The Team
The Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx) for the Chiefs defense has been nothing short of eye popping. They take center stage in our Sunday Night Football Prediction.
- In 2022, the Chiefs defense had an average SPBx of 0.706 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time
- That ranked in the middle of the league last year
- Through their first three games of 2022 they had an average SPBx of 0.756
- Through three games to start 2023, they have yet to have an SPBx above 0.4 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time
- They have an SPBx of 0.386 through their first three games
- That is a 45% improvement over their 2022 average
- That is a 49% improvement through their first three games of 2022
- They already have as many games below an SPBx of 0.5 as they did all of 2022
Sunday Night Football Pick: Chiefs Defense Is Getting Better
In Week 4 they face a hapless Jets team that has really struggled to get going offensively in 2023. There is a real possibility the Chiefs defense starts with four consecutive games below 0.5 points allowed per minute of possession time.
Keep in mind, they are doing this while prized free agency pick up Charles Omenihu is serving a six game suspension, and they also played without Chris Jones on opening night. We at Football Behavior don’t think the Chiefs defense is done getting better, nor do we feel that these first three games have been outliers. This is likely who they are, and a big reason they are the Football Behavior Sunday Night Football Pick in this one.
Behavior Profile: Jets Offense Has NOT Been Dominant
Sunday Night Football Prediction: It’s Beginning To Get Lonely For Zach Wilson In Jets Locker Room
It goes without saying that the opening night injury to Aaron Rodgers has torpedoed the Jets offense in the early going of 2023, and weighs heavily in our Sunday Night Football prediction. The Jets have opted to ride with Zach Wilson entering their fourth game in the hopes that he changed his performance behavior, and in turn will elevate the Scoring Behavior (SBx) of the offense. So far, he’s been the same Zach Wilson from 2022, which is what prompted them to get Rodgers in the first place.
- In 2022, the Jets had an average SBx of 0.744 points scored per minute of possession time
- That is a little misleading, as the average was heavily weighted towards his first three starts
- The Jets SBx regressed by 19% week over week in his seven starts
- His last four starts all had an SBx below the 2022 average
- Wilson has started two games and been the primary signal caller in all three Jets games in 2023
- The Jets have an average SBx of 0.486 in their first three games
- Following their Week 3 game, they have an early regression rate of 70% week over week
- All three games have been equal to or worse than the lowest SBx game of a Zach Wilson start in 2022
Sunday Night Football Pick: Jets Offense Is Getting Worse With Zach Wilson
The Jets are banking on Zach Wilson figuring it out. They are hoping and praying he will improve his performance behavior from 2022, when it forced them to go get Rodgers so they didn’t waste was an elite defense. The harsh truth through three games is that Wilson has in fact changed his performance behavior…
He’s gotten worse. Or, at least the Jets offense has gotten worse with him starting than they were a year ago. The season could get away from them with a loss in this game, and they go against the league’s top SPBx defense in primetime. They are not our Sunday Night Football pick to win this one.
Chiefs vs. Jets Sunday Night Football Pick
Our Chiefs vs. Jets Week 4 Sunday Night Football pick came down to the team who is playing like the most complete team in all of football heading into this one. This Chiefs offense, after a slow start, is starting to figure out this new performance environment they are in with the changing of offensive coordinators and key personnel. For once, the defense has held it down so they can take their time without much pressure to get it together. Somehow, the defending champs may be more dangerous than they were a year ago when it is all said and done.
Chiefs vs. Jets SNF Pick & Prediction
The official SNF prediction Week 4, from the Pigeon Picks sports betting model:
- Final Score Prediction
- Chiefs 22 | Jets 10
- Spread
- Chiefs -8.5
- Moneyline
- Chiefs -417*
*Football Behavior did not place a bet on the moneyline due to in sufficient ROI
- Dutching Winning Margins (What is Dutching?)
*A $30 total stake was bet proportionately across the three legs of the dutch bet
- Steelers By 1-6 (+375)
- Bet $10.68
- Steelers By 1-6 (+600)
- Bet $7.25
- Raiders By 1-6 (+320)
- Bet $12.08
If any one margin hits, because we spread the total stake out proportionately, we net profit $24.47 for a payout of $54.47 and an 81.58% ROI
Take full advantage of the Pigeon Picks Model’s dutch betting strategy by subscribing to all of the analysis and behavioral science data from Football Behavior:
- Game Risk Report
- 16.6% Chance Of Outlier Performances
- Very Safe Bet. Both teams have yet to produce an outlier on either side of the ball with stable bounce rates
- Round Robin Bet (What’s a Round Robin Bet?)
- Chiefs -8.5 is part of a round robin bet available only to Pigeon Picks subscribers
**Chiefs vs. Jets Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Saturday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit