Sunday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 3: Steelers vs. Raiders

Football Behavior’s Week 3 Sunday Night Football prediction forecasts the likely behavior of two underwhelming teams. The Las Vegas Raiders have yet to figure out how to full-team performance together. Week 1 was the offense, Week 2 the defense. 

 

On the other side, the Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off of a second straight game of poor offense, in which they needed two defensive touchdowns to win a game by four points. This was a tough Sunday Night Football pick for the Pigeon Picks model in what should be a very close matchup

 

Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

 

• When:
  • Sunday Night, 9/24/2023, 8:20 pm EST Kickoff
• Where:
  • Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
• Odds:
  • Raiders -150 | Steelers +125

 

The Raiders Defense Needs To Stabilize

 

The Raiders defense plays a large role in our Week 3 Sunday Night Football Prediction. 

 

In 2022, the Raiders defense was doing well enough into November, but then two weeks in then-Raiders quarterback Derek Carr publicly revealed that there was internal issues in the locker room. We can’t say for certain how much that played into what happened next, but what we can say is that the volatility in the defense’s performance behavior went haywire. 

 

• Week 1 through Week 8, the Raiders defense had a bounce rate of x1.4
  • x1.4 would have been the most stable and consistent performance behavior in the NFL if carried out over 17 weeks

     

• Following Carr’s comments, the defense’s bounce rate increased to x2.5
  • That’s a 79% increase, the largest increase in volatility in the NFL.

     

 

 

We have seen that volatility creep up early in 2023. In Week 1 they put up a stellar performance when they surrendered an Score Prevention Behavior Rate of only 0.5 points allowed per minute of possession time against the Broncos. 

 

In Week 2, their SPBx nearly doubled to 0.9 against the Bills. The Bills held the ball for more than 40 minutes because the offense gifted Buffalo with extra possessions and the defense couldn’t hold the line. The question is which defense will show up against Pittsburgh, a defense in their own right that can force turnovers. The version we think we’ll get is part of how we made our SNF pick.

 

Pittsburgh’s Week 2 Win Is Not Sustainable

 

 

When we sat down to analyze our Sunday Night Football prediction, we always try to account for outliers because that is what can truly change the expected outcome of a game. Both outlier events, and outlier players. Those are players who can individually change the expected outcome of an event. 

 

When we talk about outlier players we are talking about the most valuable players. We always struggle to quantify the word “value” because we do not often get loo at environments with and without the player. From an applied behavior analysis perspective, we can use players coming in and out of the lineup due to injury as an opportunity to assess impact, given the change to the environment that creates. 

 

Through that lens, in 2022, there was no defensive player more valuable to their team than TJ Watt. 

 

• In 2022, Watt missed nearly the first eight games of the season when he tore his pectoral muscle in Week 1.
  • The Steelers defense allowed a Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx) of 0.766 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time.

     

• Watt returned for the final nine games of the season. 
  • The Steelers defense allowed an SPBx of 0.429 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time
  • That was a ~45% improvement

 

 

Unfortunately, the defense has started 2023 closer to their 2022 form without Watt. That has flown under the radar because the Steelers defense was the talk of the town for the dynamism of Watt and edge-mate Alex Highsmith. Indeed, they helped engineer their Week 2 win against the Browns when the defense scored two defensive touchdowns, but they only won the game by four points. That’s a problem because it highlights how the offense has been in trouble to start the season, scoring only 19 points, in two games combined.

 

They have only possessed the ball for a total of 47 minutes and 9 seconds. The defense’s leaky start to 2023 is likely more connected to spending two thirds of the game on the field for two consecutive weeks and the offense’s inability to not only sustain drives, but score at the end of them. 

 

The way the Steelers won in Week two is not sustainable because defensive touchdowns are insane outlier events. In 2022, 0.001% of the 32,000+ plays run resulted in a defensive touchdown. The Steelers defense had two in one game! 

 

Steelers vs. Raiders Sunday Night Football Pick

 

Our Week 3 Sunday Night Football prediction weighs the volatility of Las Vegas’ defense against the current state of the Steelers offense. The outlier we are attempting to be aware of is TJ Watt, and whether the offense can better compliment his efforts. Here is what we came up with for our SNF pick and how to spread your betting risk with dutch betting, to account for multiple outcomes.

 

Steelers vs. Raiders nickname SNF Pick & Prediction

 

The official SNF prediction Week 3, from the Pigeon Picks sports betting model:

 

• Final Score Prediction
  • Steelers 20 | Raiders 18
    

     

• Spread
  • Steelers +3 (-115) *

*Football Behavior did not place a bet against the spread in this matchup because it was within four points of the Football Behavior expected point spread

 

• Moneyline
  • Steelers (+125)
    

     

• Dutching Winning Margins (What is Dutching?)

*A $30 total stake was bet proportionately across the three legs of the dutch bet

• Steelers By 1-6 (+375) 
  • Bet $10.68
• Steelers By 1-6 (+600)
  • Bet $7.25
• Raiders By 1-6 (+320)
  • Bet $12.08

If any one margin hits, because we spread the total stake out proportionately, we net profit $20.72 for a payout of $50.72

 

Take full advantage of the Pigeon Picks Model’s dutch betting strategy by subscribing to all of the analysis and behavioral science data from Football Behavior:

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• Game Risk Report

• 23.6% Chance Of Outlier Performances
• Relatively Safe Bet. Pittsburgh brings stability to this, but the Raiders volatility should not be ignored. Exercise some caution.

 

**Steelers vs. Raiders Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Friday PM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit