If You’re Short On Time…

• Chiefs Started Slow, But Adapted Nicely
• If Trends Continue They Can Win
• How We Bet…
  • Chiefs -3.5 (-120)
  • Chiefs ML (+160)
  • Chiefs OVER 18.5 (-165)
  • Ravens UNDER 26.5 (-170)
• FULL NFL Margin For Error Rankings

2024 AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs Becoming Team We Know

1. Chiefs Battle A New Environment

Seven weeks into the season, the offense was regressing 23% week to week in their scoring behavior. They had hit a low point in their season, scoring just 9 points against the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs had a whopping five turnovers in that game, two of them being Patrick Mahomes interceptions.

2.  They Adapt

Since Week 7, the Chiefs saw a meteoric 36% week to week improvement in their scoring behavior rate (SBx). This past week they won the first ever road playoff game in the Patrick Mahomes era, scoring 27 points in just 23 minutes, a 1.2 SBx. 

3. Chiefs Trending Way Up

Due to behavioral trends, they are actually projected to have a slight edge in this game. Without accounting for the Ravens environment, they are projected to score 1.1 points per minute of possession time. The key for them will be to win time of possession CONTINGENT on maintaining an SBx of 0.8 points per minute of possession time. If they do, we will see them in the Super Bowl.

Key #1

Without accounting for the Ravens defensive environment, the Chiefs in a vacuum are projected to score 1.1 points for every minute they possess the ball.

The Chiefs have the number one score prevention defense in the NFL. If they can slow the Ravens offense down, and win time of possession, scoring above a rate of 0.8 points per minute of possession time, they’ll win.

Key #2

The Chiefs number 1 defense allowed the Bills to possess the ball for more than 37 minutes last week. 

The Ravens have the number 1 SBx offense in the league. If they allow them to possess the ball anywhere near that, they will lose. They MUST tighten up in the run game and force the Ravens into long 3rd downs. 

Key #3

The Chiefs cannot abandon the run. Baltimore allows more rushing yards per game at home than they do on the road. 

Prior to the game against the Texans, the Ravens have allowed 121 or more yards in six of their last eight games, and 150+ in four of their last eight. 

The Chiefs will need their run game to control the clock and open up their deadly passing game.

2024 AFC Championship Pick: Ravens Morph Into Juggernaut

1. Ravens Start Slow

36% Week to Week Regression in SBx through first six games

2.  Massive Jump

Starting in Week 7, their average SBx jumped 49% from the six games prior

3. Maintain Dominance

Over their next 11 games with Lamar Jackson as the starter, eight of the games have an SBx of 0.9 points per minute of possession or higher, with six of them over 1 point per minute of possession.

Key #1

Without accounting for the Chiefs defensive environment, the Ravens in a vacuum are projected to score 1 point for every minute they possess the ball.

The Chiefs have the number one score prevention defense in the NFL. The closer the Ravens stay to their 1 SBx, something they’ve done six times in the last 11 games, the likelier they win. 

Key #2

Time of Possession. If the Ravens win the time of possession battle, something they have done in seven of their last 11 games, they should win. 

The Bills held the ball against the Chiefs for 37 minutes and lost. The Ravens must not give up 0.825 points per minute of Chiefs possession time and have the ball for less than 29 minutes.