Sunday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 11: Vikings vs. Broncos

Our Football Behavior Sunday Night Football prediction for the Vikings vs. Broncos matchup looks at the Vikings massive environmental change with Josh Dobbs coming in at quarterback for an injured Kirk Cousins. This is a game where there’s still a lot we have yet to learn about Josh Dobbs true behavioral profile in this new performance environment. However, Sunday night will bring us a bit closer to that knowledge. If you’re a sports bettor this may be a game to avoid given the big risk of yet knowing where Dobbs settles in behaviorally. We’ve placed one bet based on the behavioral analysis below. 

Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

• When:
  • Sunday Night, November 19th, 8:20 pm, est
• Where:
  • Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, Colorado
• Odds:
  • Vikings +115
  • Broncos -135

Vikings vs. Broncos: Bets Placed

Here are the Sunday Night Football picks we made off of the Football Behavior NFL Bets prediction model:

• • • Teaser (What Is A Teaser Bet?)
      • Vikings Alt Spread +6.5
      • Game Alt UNDER 47.5

In football, we naturally assume the biggest control on overall offensive performance is the quarterback. In most cases, we are correct in that assumption. However, that is not always the case. We can tell when this happens when a starting quarterback goes out, the back up comes in, and the offense doesn’t really see a drastic change in their scoring behavior. And if you’ve been following long enough, you know the first law of football behavior is that an offense’s primary job is to score points and it can only do so when it possesses the ball.

In our Vikings vs. Broncos Sunday Night Football prediction, we have yet to see a drastic change in the Vikings scoring behavior with starter Kirk Cousins out for the season, and new comer Josh Dobbs stepping in. If anything, what is most noteworthy is that both games, where Dobbs entered after Jaren Hall was injured and last week’s start, the Vikings had their two best performances in terms of scoring behavior of the entire season, when adjusted for outliers.

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Vikings vs. Broncos

It isn’t no where near enough data to say something to the effect of Kirk Cousins not being an outlier-type of player where his presence is unimportant, and we have seen many times where the new quarterback comes back down to earth following an initial explosive phase. Which trend will take shape against the Broncos on Sunday Night Football?

The Broncos defense was strangely helped out by the Broncos and Bills offenses last Monday Night Football. The Broncos offense possessed the bal enough to keep them off of the field, and the Bills offense helped them by turning the ball over four times. It was a game where we saw what was an unsustainable trend come to an end, something we forewarned in last week’s Week 10 Monday Night Football prediction article. Will they level somewhere in the middle? It just so happens, the middle is where the Vikings are projected to also be…

Sunday Night Football Prediction: Vikings vs. Broncos Defense

It is easy to see the four turnover performance against the Bills and think that they had continued on their trend line. But against the Bills, they let up almost one point for every minute they were on the field. Had the Bills not turned the ball over, it’s likely they would have scored even more points. They are due for a mean regression and we suspect we’ll see that somewhere around their Geometric Mean line, the orange line on the chart above.

Vikings vs. Broncos: Sunday Night Football Pick

The Football Behavior Sunday Night Football prediction for Week 11 is that the Vikings hot streak, and the Josh Dobbs story, continues with a close win against the Broncos. The model actually projects this game as a virtual tie, with only 0.4 points separating them in average score across all outcomes.

Vikings vs. Broncos: SNF Pick & Prediction

• Projected Score
  • Vikings 21, Broncos 20

• Bets Placed
  • Teaser  
    • Vikings Alt Spread +6.5 
    • Game Alt. UNDER 47.5

• Risk Report
  • 20.4% Chance Of Outlier Performances, When Adjusted For Outliers: Proceed With EXTREME caution. 

  • Most Likely Outlier: Vikings Offense. This will be Josh Dobbs second start with the Vikings, and third game with them overall. There is still a lot of unknown with where his performance behavior ultimately settles in.  

**All Odds provided by Caesars (Last Updated Saturday PM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit

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