Thursday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 9: Titans vs. Steelers

Our Thursday Night Football Prediction for Week 9 sees a very close game of the lower scoring variety. Between the Steelers high rate of volatility on offense, the Titans going with Will Levis on a short week, and the relative strength of both defenses, we have made alternate bets and teasers more in line with our Football Behavior score projections.

• Titans Alt. Total OVER 15.0 Points
• Teaser (What Is A Teaser Bet?)
  • Titans Alt. Spread +7.5
  • Alt. Total OVER 33.5
  • What Is An Alternate Spread?
• Dutch Bet: Winning Margins
  • Titans Win By 1-6
  • Steelers Win By 1-6
  • Titans Win By 7-12
  • What Is Dutch Betting?

Our Thursday Night Football prediction sees this game a virtual tie. Given the bounce rate of both teams, either one could win a close one. At the outset we project this to be low scoring. However, based on the odds we could get, we felt good with alternate total of 33.5 points. We project this at an average total of 39.5 points, so we went six points lower. Correlated to that, we have the Titans OVER 15 points. We project them to hit 21 points so we went six points lower there as well. 

The Titans will be starting rookie quarterback Will Levis on a short week, just four days after he made his debut and threw four touchdowns against no interceptions. He came in and provided a big Spark to an offense that was hovering around neutral. That performance sent them into a 27% growth rate week to week, paired with a solid x1.5 bounce rate. We must be careful however. A new quarterback is as volatile as it gets. One thing working in the Titans favor is that the Steelers defense will not have time to overly prepare for new tendencies the Titans may not have. 

Titans vs Steelers: Titans Offense Gets Needed Spark. Can It Stay Lit?

Titans vs. Steelers: Steelers Volatility

The Steelers offense on the other hand, has mostly been bad, and wildly inconsistent. They are averaging a scoring behavior of just 0.484 points per minute of possession time. On top of that they have a bounce rate of x3.3. That is tied for fourth worst in the entire NFL. Compared to the Titans, their scoring behavior chart looks like someone shot it with buck shot. 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Are The Steelers Going to Level Out?

Five of their seven games have been below 0.6 SBx, So while they have been all over the place, their bounciness is mostly among the doldrums of the NFL’s scoring behavior. Quarterback Kenny Pickett left last week’s game due to a rib injury, but he vows he’s is playing on Thursday night. He has been mostly ineffective this season, and now is playing hurt, on a short week, against a Titans defense that has been very consistent. 

Did we mention we see a low scoring game in this one?

*All terms, and why they matter, can be found in our glossary of terms