Our 49ers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football prediction comes down to whether or not the Vikings turnover woes are truly a part of their behavioral profile. On the flips side, we are going to see Brock Purdy do something we have never seen him do before: respond to a loss. How that fits into the turnover discussion will likely determine the winner.
Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday Night, 10/23/2023
- Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST
- Where:
- US Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN
- Odds: Provided By PointsBet
- 49ers -290
- Vikings +230
49ers vs. Vikings: Vikings Behavior Profiles
49ers vs. Vikings: Cousins And The Vikings Need To Limit The Turnovers
The Vikings offense is the focus of our Monday Night Football prediction in this 49ers vs. Vikings match up. The offense last year was the catalyst for their 13 win season. This year, the offense has fallen off of a cliff. Their average SBx is not only lower, but it is also decaying week to week.
They have been beset by turnovers. They have the third most turnovers in the NFL paired with the third worst turnover differential, including the most lost fumbles, which is a very unpredictable measure.
That said, unpredictable or not, the more the turnovers continue the more likely they are to occur in the future due to behavioral momentum. Environmental action on the coaching side must take place to reverse this trend. This is especially so if the Vikings defense can’t reciprocate by creating turnovers of their own.
- In 2022, the Vikings had an average SBx of 0.922, minus two extreme outliers. In 2023, that is down 16.75%
- The Vikings have an average SBx of 0.767 through six games in 2023
- Week 2 appears to have been an extreme outlier, where if removed, would bring their average SBx even lower
Monday Night Football Prediction: Vikings Offense Has Regressed
On Monday night, they will be facing a 49ers team who is nearly their polar opposite in terms of turnovers. They lead the league in turnover differential, something they did for the entirety of 2022. This will be a tough week to do it, but in order to win this 49ers vs. Vikings matchup, the Vikings offense will need to reverse both trends.
49ers vs. Vikings: 49ers Behavior Profiles
49ers vs. Vikings: Purdy Will Need To Overcome First Performance Adversity
The other side of this 49ers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football prediction is the niners offense. Much has been made about Brock Purdy and the “is he or isn’t he” debate regarding his greatness. Let us be clear, he has been remarkable. He has also behaviorally been a catalyst for this 49ers team ever since the first day he stepped behind center for them.
However, he has yet to face real performance behavior adversity. What I mean by that is that Purdy has yet to have a poor performance that resulted in a team loss. That happened in Week 6. It happened for a myriad of reasons, but Purdy was unable to overcome those reasons.
This part of Purdy’s behavior is yet unknown to us. How does he perform following what as of now looks to be a performance outlier? Does it remain an outlier, or start a new trend. Tonight, we find out.
- The 49ers offense had its worst performance of the season in Week 6
- First time this season they had an SBx of less than 0.8 points per minute of possession of time
- It was the second worst SBx of the Purdy era, dating back to the 2022 season
- It has moved their behavioral trend into a 10% decay rate
Monday Night Football Prediction: How Does Purdy Respond To Outliers?
This 49ers vs. Vikings matchup is a good test for Brock Purdy. We have never had to see him come back from a loss. We will learn a bit more about how much control this will have on his future behavior.
49ers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football Pick
The 49ers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football prediction comes down whether or not the Vikings offense can reverse their own trend with turnovers, while stunting the 49ers own trend.
On the flip side, and perhaps a big part of that, is finding out how Brock Purdy responds to coming off of a poor performance behavior week that resulted in a team loss. Does it compound, or does it have little control on his future behavior?
49ers vs. Vikings MNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- 49ers 22 | Vikings 18
- Bets Placed
- Vikings +7
- 49ers ML
- Vikings Alt. Spread +12.5
- 49ers Alt. Spread -3.5
- Alt. Total UNDER 44.5
- Dutching: Winning Margins (What Is Dutch Betting?)
- 49ers 1-6
- 49ers 7-12
- Vikings 1-6
- Teaser Bet
- 49ers -2.5
- UNDER 47
- Risk Report
- 24% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Proceed With Caution
- Most Likely Outlier: Vikings Defense. x4 bounce rate with an extreme outlier in Week 4. Find out more in our glossary of terms.
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Sunday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit. How we have done in Week 7 through Sunday Night Football:
Pigeon Picks Week 7 Stats