The Football Behavior Sunday Night Football pick for the Cowboys vs. 49ers matchup sees Brock Purdy as a worthy QB1 who has the 49ers operating at their best. He’ll be facing a Cowboys defense that has been volatile so far this season, and more importantly, untested. Will the Cowboys pass their first real test of the season?
Let’s line it up!
Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, October 8th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- Levi Stadium, Santa Clara, CA
- Odds:
- 49ers -190 | Cowboys +160
49ers Offense Is Heating Up
SNF Pick: Brock Purdy Is A Worthy QB 1
Our points of focus for this Sunday Night Football pick is Brock Purdy and the 49ers. We have been saying until we’re blue in the face that Brock Purdy was always the best choice to start 2023 as the 49ers QB1.
Not only does the offense perform most optimally with him under center, but his own individual behaviors are exactly what Kyle Shanahan looks for in a quarterback. He is perfect for the 49ers environment, and that’s all the 49ers should care about.
Now, 25% of the way into the season, it is clear the offense is getting into high gear.
- In 2022 the 49ers averaged an SBx of 0.99 points per minute of possession time across all of Brock Purdy’s starts where he finished the full game.
- That is a 47% improvement from when Jimmy Garappolo was the starter (0.672)
- That is a 40% improvement from when Christian McCaffery became the full time starter while Garappolo was still quarterback (0.709)
- Though four games of 2023, the 49ers are averaging an SBx 0f 0.953 points per minute of possession time
- That is merely 4% off of Brock Purdy’s 2022 average
- Through four games they are improving by 51% week over week
Sunday Night Football Pick: 49ers Offense Is At Its Best With Brock Purdy
On Sunday, the 49ers face a very volatile Cowboys defense that has been mostly dominant, if untested. The 49ers will easily be the best team they have faced in 2023, and the way they are trending, they should be the Football Behavior Sunday Night Football pick.
Cowboys Defense Untested…And Volatile
SNF Pick: Can Micah Parsons And The Cowboys Defense Pass The 49ers Test?
The Dallas Cowboys make this Sunday Night Football pick difficult in that their defense is both untested and very volatile. They have a bounce rate (glossary of terms) of x12. That is six times the desired bounce rate of x2 or less. In fact, when examining their performances in 2023, all four of them are technically considered outliers when looking at their bounce envelope. In the chart below, you can see that all four data points are on the outer edge of the green lines.
Sunday Night Football Pick: Cowboys Defense Is Too Volatile
Some of that volatility is that they have yet to play a proven offense. In their four games of 2023, they have faced four teams with a combined average Scoring Behavior rate (SBx) of 0.43 points scored per minute of possession time. Of the four, who is the team with the highest SBx?
The 1-3 Arizona Cardinals, who have a 0.637 SBx. Also, they are the one team who beat Dallas so far in 2023. This will be their biggest test against the most complete offense in football. We are not sure they will pass as we make out Sunday Night Football pick with the Pigeon Picks sports betting model.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Sunday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior Sunday Night Football prediction for the Week 5 Cowboys vs. 49ers starts with finding an edge in the betting lines. We predict a game that could be close, but need to account for a defense in Dallas that has not been tested and is extremely volatile.
That is why our SNF pick for Week 5 is the 49ers. But the question is by how much and how can we get good odds?
Cowboys vs. 49ers SNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
- SNF Prediction: Final Score
- 49ers 27, Cowboys 23
- Educational Resources:
- Moneyline
-
- 49ers -190
- Spread
- 49ers -3.5
*Football Behavior did not bet against the spread in this Sunday Night Football matchup.
- Alt Spreads (What Are Alt Spreads?)
- 49ers +2.5 (-240)
*Football Behavior selected this due to the volatility in the Cowboys defense. While the confidence is high in a 49ers win, by how much is in question. By making the 49ers an underdog by +2.5 points at -240 odds, we are minimizing risk and securing a 40% ROI with a hit.
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- Game Risk Report
- 39.7% Chance Of Outlier Performances
- Reason: Dallas Defense with an x12 bounce rate
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening