Due to the final score projections of the Football Behavior Pigeon Picks sports betting model, we are able to take advantage of alternate spreads. They are one of many different betting strategies used by Football Behavior to retain a profitable ROI on our NFL bets. Learn what an alternate spread is, and how the study of human behavior can help make them profitable.
What’s an Alternate Spread, and What Does It Mean?
An alternate spread refers to a betting option in sports where the point spread is adjusted to provide more balanced odds. It allows bettors to wager on a team’s performance relative to a modified spread, increasing or decreasing the margin of victory required for a payout. Alt spreads offer flexibility and can enhance betting opportunities.
Are Alternate Spreads The Same As Regular Spreads?
Regular point spreads set a fixed margin of victory for betting. Alternate spreads allow adjustments, offering varied margins, providing bettors with more flexibility and diverse wagering options in sports betting.
Regular point spreads set by sportsbooks are determined based on a combination of factors, including team performance, player injuries, historical matchups, and public perception. Sportsbooks aim to create balanced betting by estimating the margin of victory that will attract equal bets on both teams, ensuring profitability regardless of the game’s outcome. It’s not solely based on median outcomes or mean, but rather a complex analysis of various factors.
Sportsbooks determine the odds for alternate spreads by adjusting the regular point spread to offer different betting options. They consider the same factors as for regular point spreads, but the odds are set to entice bettors to wager on the alt spreads, ensuring a balanced book and managing the sportsbook’s risk. Bookmakers use their expertise and statistical models to calculate these odds, aiming for profitability while accommodating diverse betting preferences.
We use our sports betting model, Pigeon Picks, to find the right alt spread at the right odds to maintain a profitable ROI.
Alternate Spread Betting Explained
Alt Spreads Explained
In NFL alternate spread betting, bettors can modify the point spread to increase or decrease the margin of victory required for a payout. For instance, if a team is favored by 7 points, bettors can choose an alternate spread of +3.5 for the underdog or -10.5 for the favorite.
This flexibility allows strategic bets based on team analysis and game scenarios. If expecting a close match, choosing a smaller alternate spread enhances the odds, while a dominant team might warrant a wider spread for better payouts. Understanding team dynamics and predicting game flow are crucial, enabling bettors to tailor their strategies for higher chances of winning.
Examples of Alternate Spread For NFL Games
At Football Behavior, our Pigeon Picks model uses applied behavior analysis to predict a team’s expected behavior on both sides of the ball. It will then produce a final score projection. Based on that projection, we can find the right alt spread to select for a given game.
We like to have a minimum 40% ROI on bets we hit. So based on our units, we try to pick odds that are around -240 at the worst. Anything above that into plus territory obviously works too. A good example of this would be a Monday Night Football game between the Seattle Seahawks and New York Giants in Week 4, 2023.
An Alt Spread Case Study
The Volatility Of The Giants Offense Made This A Alt Spread Case Study
The Pigeon Picks model projected a 32-26 win for the Seahawks. However, we noted that early in the season the volatility in team behavior is very high. For the Giants offense, especially at that time, this was true. While we believed strongly that the Seahawks would win, the question was by how much? Our model projected it could be by as little as 1 point, or as large as 24 points.
The regular spread on the game was Seahawks -1.5. This was the perfect case, when examining the factors, to choose an alternate spread. Because of our confidence in a Seattle victory, but little confidence in a defined spread, we chose an alternate spread of Seattle +3.5 at -190 odds.
Seattle won by 21 points, 20 points more than the regular spread, and we hit our bet with a 52.6% ROI. The name of the game is profit, and the alternate spread bet in an uncertain situation helped us secure one.
How Do You Make Money With Alternate Spread Betting?
One can profit by accurately predicting the margin of victory in sports events. By adjusting the point spread, bettors can place strategic wagers based on their analysis. If the actual margin aligns with their chosen alternate spread, they win, making money through successful predictions and strategic betting choices.
Are Alternate Spread Bets Profitable?
Alternate Spreads Can Be Profitable
This type of betting offers profit potential through strategic analysis. By adjusting the point spread, bettors can find favorable odds that align with their predictions. If the chosen alternate spread is met, they win, making profits. Skillful analysis of teams and game dynamics allows bettors to make informed choices, increasing the chances of winning.
What Sports Can You Make The Most Money With Alternate Spreads?
At Football Behavior, as the name suggests, we make our money betting on the NFL. The reality is that the potential to make money with alternate spread betting varies across sports and depends on a bettor’s knowledge and analysis.
Sports with high-scoring games like basketball and football offer numerous options, allowing for strategic bets. However, the profitability also depends on the bettor’s understanding of the sport, teams, and game dynamics, rather than the sport itself. Success in alternate spread betting is more about insightful analysis and strategic decision-making than the specific sport being bet on.
How Beginner Sports Bettors Can Make Money With Alternate Spreads
For a beginner in alternate spread betting, it’s essential to start with research and understanding. Here’s a step-by-step guide to increase your chances of making money:
- Learn the Basics: Understand the sport you’re betting on, the teams, player statistics, and game rules.
- Study Past Performance: Analyze historical data, team matchups, and performance trends to make informed predictions.
- Manage Your Bankroll: Set a budget for betting and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses and bet only what you can afford to lose.
- Start Small: Begin with small bets to familiarize yourself with the process and gain experience without risking significant money.
- Focus on Few Sports: Concentrate on a few sports to become an expert. Specialization can provide a deeper understanding of teams and players. We only do NFL football. Nothing else, for this reason. It allows us to be highly focused.
- Utilize Alternate Spreads Wisely: Explore various alternate spreads and understand how changing the spread affects the odds. Look for opportunities where bookmakers’ predictions seem off.
- Stay Informed: Keep updated with sports news, injuries, and team dynamics. This information can impact game outcomes.
- Consider Professional Advice: Follow expert analyses and predictions from reputable sources to enhance your own insights. Our Football Newsletter is FREE and easy to sign up for!
- Practice Discipline: Be patient and disciplined. Avoid impulsive betting and emotional decisions.
- Track Your Bets: Maintain a record of your bets to analyze your successes and failures. Learn from your mistakes and refine your strategies. All of the Football Behavior bets are tracked publicly at Pikkit, a free bet tracking app.
Remember, there are no guaranteed wins in sports betting. It requires patience, research, and a disciplined approach. As you gain experience, you can refine your strategies and potentially increase your profits.
What Sportsbooks Offer Alternate Spreads?
The top 3 sportsbooks we use for NFL alternate spreads are:
- Fanduel
- DraftKings
- PointsBet
Almost all sportsbooks allow NFL alternate spread betting, so choosing the right one should be based on getting the best odds at the one you feel comfortable with.
Alternate Spreads On FanDuel
Fanduel is a popular choice for these. Here is a step by step guide on how to find them in the sportsbook app, and what it looks like:
- Tap the game you want to bet on
- Scroll down to “Alternate Spread”
- Select the alt spread and corresponding odds that you want to bet on
- Tap “Show all” to see all available options
Alternate Spreads: How FanDuel Does It
Alternate Spread Bet FAQ
- What is an alternate spread?
They are a customized point spread in sports betting, allowing bettors to wager on varied margin outcomes.
- Do all sportsbooks offer betting on alternate spreads?
Not all sportsbooks offer them. Availability varies, and it’s essential to check each sportsbook’s specific betting options.
- Can I make money with alternate spread betting?
Yes, it’s possible to make money through strategic analysis and informed betting decisions in sports wagering.
- What leagues use alternate spread sports betting?
Major sports leagues like NFL, NBA, MLB, and NHL often feature them in various sportsbooks.
- Are alternate spread bets worth it?
At Football Behavior, we find them to be among the best betting strategies we use to take advantage of our Pigeon Picks prediction model. Along with dutching (what is dutching?), we are able to maintain a high ROI multiples above the 5-6% benchmark for professional sports bettors. It’s how we were independently ranked in the top 10 for ROI by SharpRank.