In the Football Behavior Week 4 Thursday Night Football prediction, we have a Lions vs. Packers matchup that focuses on Jared Goff and Lions regressing from their 2022 pace after high expectations. Also, was Week 3 from the Packers an outlier, or part of their behavior we need to consider?
With our Pigeon Picks model, you may be surprised what we decided on for our Thursday Night Football pick.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, September 28th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI
- Odds:
- Lions -130 | Packers +110
Lions Offense Has Fallen Behind
TNF Pick: For The Lions To Win, They Need To Get Back To Their 2022 Behavior
The Lions enter Week 4 as two point favorites against their NFC North Rivals. The discussion around Detroit during the offseason was as a big time favorite who were favored to win the North. This was because they were coming off of a 2022 campaign in which their offense was among the top scoring units in the NFL. Through the first three weeks of 2023, they are well off that pace.
- In 2022 The Lions averaged a scoring behavior rate of 0.925 points per minute of possession time
- When accounting for extreme outliers, that ranked 4th in the NFL
- Through the first three weeks of 2023, the Lions have regressed 30% from their 2022 SBx average
- Half of their games were above 1.0 SBx in 2022
- Two out of three games in 2023 have been below 0.7 SBx
Thursday Night Prediction: Lions Need To Find Their 2022 Offensive Mojo
To reach the heights they’ve set out for themselves, they cannot rest on their 2-1 record. That offense needs to get back into a consistent high gear to compete with the elite teams of the NFC. Not just getting a win, but a convincing one, could go a long way to convincing us they’re who we thought they were after 2022. As of now, we have downgraded them a bit as we make out Thursday Night Football pick.
Was Week 3 A Packers Outlier?
TNF Prediction: The Packers Offense Needs To Stabilize
After two very impressive weeks to start the 2023 season, the Packers took a step back in Week 3. It was a step so far back, that it sent their week over week celebration rate into an 80% regression. Now, three games does not a season make, but, as we begin to solidify who these teams are behaviorally, Week 4 will tell us a lot about Week 3 as an outlier, or perhaps part of a bigger behavioral pattern.
- Weeks 1 and 2 were each above 1.0 SBx
- That is already more than all of 2022 combined for Green Bay
- Week 3 had an SBx barely above 0.5
- That is such a steep drop from their first two weeks that it set their celebration rate at 80% week over week
- At such a small sample size, Week 4 will go a long way to telling us if Week 3 was an outlier, or part of a developing behavioral profile of volatility.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Was Week 3 An Outlier For The Packers Offense?
The Week 3 SBx of the Packers introduced volatility to our TNF prediction. According to the Pigeon Picks sports betting model, the volatility must be accounted for. They have shown the ability to both outscore a team like the Lions, and also be blown out. That must be kept in mind as we make out TNF pick.
Lions vs. Packers Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 4 starts with examining the spread and the moneyline. We predict this game to be closer than even the two point spread predicts. As such our TNF pick could provide value to the underdog, and will allow us to potentially find value when we dutch winning margins. The behavioral profiles of each team, which include significant environmental factors and three weeks of 2023 performance behaviors, has us sitting some of these bets out.
Lions vs. Packers TNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
- TNF Prediction: Final Score
- Lions 21, Packers 20
- Moneyline
- Lions -130*
- Spread
- Packers +2*
*Football Behavior did not bet on the moneyline or against the spread in this Thursday Night Football matchup. We have this game as a virtual toss up with less than a point of difference between the two teams. Across all likely outcomes, the Lions are projected to score an average of 21.37 points. The Packers are projected to score an average of 20.42 points.
- Alt Spreads We’d Consider
- Lions +4.5 (-250)
- Packers +6.5 (-250)
- Dutching: Winning Margins (What Is Dutching?)
*Proportionally Bet $30 Across All Three
- Lions 1-6 (+300) (bet $11.61)
- Lions 7-12 (+475) (bet $8.07)
- Packers 1-6 (+350) (bet $10.32)
$30 total. If any one of those winning margin hits, you win a NET profit of $16.43, for an ROI of +42.5%.
- QB Prop Picks
- To see our Thursday Night Football picks for QB Props, subscribe to the Pigeon Picks Newsletter below with a simple click!
- Game Risk Report
- 19.8% Chance Of Outlier Performances, likely the winning team wins this one by under 7 points.
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening