Monday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 1: Jets vs. Bills

Our Monday Night Football prediction starts and stops with the value Aaron Rodgers brings to the New York Jets. The behavioral data is fascinating, especially when we add the Bills to the mix. Here’s why the New York Jets will be our Pigeon Picks Week 1 Monday Night Football pick

 

Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

• When:
  • Monday Night, 9/11/2023
• Where:
  • MetLife Stadium, Meadowlands, New Jersey
• Odds: Provided By PointsBet
  • Jets +120
  • Bills -145

 

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Quarterback Props In All Primetime Games
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Behaviorally Quantifying The Rodgers Upgrade

 

 

Our MNF prediction is also predicated on what the 2022 Jets “could have” been with even just 2022’s version of Rodgers. We know the Jets went to great lengths this offseason to bring over Rodgers’ 2021 Packers environment that produced an MVP season and NFC Championship appearance. 

But even 2022’s Rodgers, without OC Hackett and All-Pro Adams, would have sufficed for New York. If the Jets had even slightly better quarterback play in 2022, they would have been in the postseason. The Rodgers-led Packers were dead smack in the middle of the league in scoring behavior, averaging .73 points per minute of possession time. 

That would be .2 better than what Zach Wilson did with the Jets combined across his nine starts. May not seem like much but, over the course of a game, assuming the Jets possess the ball for around 29-31 minutes, that’s an extra touchdown every single game. If the Jets had been able to score just one more touchdown every game in 2022, they would have won five more games that they had originally lost.

Let us not forget, however, the 2023 Jets have better offensive weapons overall than the 2022 Packers did with reigning offensive rookie of the year Garrett Wilson and newly signed Dalvin Cook to pair with a returning Breece Hall. This is combined with Rodgers’ familiarity with Cobb and Lazard, and Hackett calling plays. 

 

Is The Bills Defense Overrated?

 

Short answer, yes. Our MNF prediction for Week 1 hasn’t forgotten the other team in this environment, the Buffalo Bills. More specifically, their potentially overrated defense. 

The Bills had a 2022 Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx) of 0.544 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. On the surface, that is a great number and among the best in football. However, when we apply behavioral context, we get a more precise view.

• Overall, their SPBx Rate was helped by a massive outlier from their 10/9/2022 game against the Steelers. 
  • Removing that outlier, their 0.607 SPBx Rate would have ranked them outside of the top 10. 
• They got exponentially worse as the season went along, giving up more points at a 24% rate week over week.

 

 

They also performed substantially worse after the bye week. 

• Prior to the bye week, the Bills defense had an SPBx Rate of 0.361. 
• Following the bye week, it was 85% worse at 0.667.

 

 

Jets vs. Bills Monday Night Football Pick

 

 

In summary, this MNF prediction for Week 1 sees…

The Jets

• Capitalizing on a what should be a massive upgrade in SBx behavior due to a new quarterback in Aaron Rodgers
• Seeing less of a learning curve due to the importing Rodgers’ familiar performance environment
• Will continue to have an elite defense

 

The Bills

• Having a defense similar to what we saw after their 2022 bye week, not before
• Josh Allen continuing to be less effective against top defenses, especially the Jets
  • Bills scored four points less per game, according to SBx, against top 5 defenses in SPBx than they did against defenses ranked 22 or lower
    • Jets defense was ranked 5th in SPBx

Jets vs. Bills MNF Pick & Prediction

 

Our Official Week 1 Monday Night Football Prediction:

• Final Score Prediction
  • Jets 23 | Bills 20
• Spread
  • Jets +2.5 
• Moneyline
  • Jets +120
• Dutching Winning Margins 

*We bet one unit concurrently on both, only need to win one to make a profit

• • Jets By 1-6 +375
  • Bills By 1-6 +310
  • Jets By 7-10 +600

• Game Risk Report

• • 29.6% Chance Of Outlier Performances
    • Reason: Brand new offensive environment for the Jets at multiple personnel positions and offensive coordinator
• Riskiest Game To Bet On Week 1

 

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**Cowboys vs. Giants Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Friday AM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit