After we made our first Pigeon Pick for the NFL Opening Kickoff game with our Lions vs. Chiefs prediction in early August, we decided to start digging in to each of other Week 1 point spreads. One really jumped out at us, which led to this Bengals vs. Browns prediction.

 

Here’s why:

 

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Bengals Vs. Browns Prediction:

Picks

 

  • Spread
    • Bengals -2.5*
  • Moneyline
  • Dutching
    • For Pigeon Picks Subscribers Only

 

*The Pigeon Picks Model made this pick when the spread was Bengals (-1)

** All bets made by the model are tracked at Pikkit, click here for a chance to win $100

 

The thinking at the time when we first alerted our Football Behavior subscribers about this (August 8th, 2023), was that bettors needed to act fast. This was because the Bengals being -1 was due to a rushed fear that Burrow may be in danger of missing the game. What we knew from talking to actual injury experts was that this was not the case.

 

The moment it was announced he had returned to practice the line was going to move. Well, he has returned to practice and the line has now moved to Bengals -2.5. We think that is still too narrow. However, we also think that this line too, is temporary. When Burrow is officially announced ready for the September 10th game, this line will move again, taking the field goal victory off of the table. 

 

Bengals vs. Browns Prediction:

Joe Burrow’s Health 

 

Joe Burrow's health is at the center of this Bengals vs. Browns prediction

Joe Burrow’s health is at the center of this Bengals vs. Browns prediction

 

Lets start off by stating, that unless there is a very rare set back, Joe Burrow will be the starting quarterback for the Bengals Week 1. That fact is the at the heart of this Bengals vs. Browns prediction.

 

On July 27th, during a routine drop back in training camp, Burrow came up lame as he tried to navigate the pocket. The worst was feared, but as it turns out, Burrow only had a Grade 1 calf strain, which is really good news. It meant he would only be out 3-4 weeks. That meant Burrow would return to the field 1-2 weeks BEFORE the Bengals take on the Browns Week 1.

 

Don’t just take my word for it. One of the injury experts I trust the most, Deepak Chona, MD. (@SportMDAnalysis), also believes Burrow will be back Week 1.

 

With the news he is back at practice, Chona has doubled down on his belief, with compelling evidence in his latest for Fantasy Pros.

 

What’s The Value?

Prior to Burrow’s injury, the line on this game according to DraftKings was Bengals -2.5. I believe even that line was much too narrow. However, following Burrow’s injury, the line moved to Bengals -1, which is where we and our subscribers got it. Even now at -2.5, there are two ways to approach this.

 

If you believed the Bengals were going to win…

 

before Burrow’s injury, you were already ok with the 2.5 point spread. Few games are decided by less than 3 points. So if you think the Bengals were going to win, it was most likely going to be by at least a field goal. Giving the 2.5 points to the Browns is no big deal, easy cover.

 

With that logic in mind, if the line moves closer to the Browns, and the only reason for that is an injury to Burrow that he will return from, taking the Bengals at -1 is even more of a no brainer.

 

If You Believed The Browns Were Going To Cover…

This should concern you and give you pause. Little more than a week ago you were playing with a 2.5 point margin of error. That margin has evaporated to what is essentially a pick ‘em, based on how final scores in the NFL tend to work.

 

We’d advise staying away from the spread on this game, unless you were to pair it with a Browns moneyline win.

 

Bengals vs. Browns Prediction:

Can The Browns Win?

 

Deshaun Watson MUST Be Better In This Bengals vs. Browns Prediction

Deshaun Watson MUST Be Better In This Bengals vs. Browns Prediction

 

It is the NFL. Anything can happen. But it is truly shocking that the spread is this tight and why we are comfortable making this Bengals vs. Browns prediction. 

 

The Bengals were a last second Joseph Ossai roughing the passer penalty away from forcing overtime in the AFC Championship game. They remain an AFC championship contender heading into 2023. The Browns went 7-10 and got worse as the year went on.

 

According to our Football Behavior Analytics…

 

  • the Bengals ranked 6th in Margin Of Error Score, 3rd in the Football Behavior Improvement Index, and ranked as the 3rd safest team to bet on in 2022.

     

  • The Browns ranked 23rd in Margin Of Error Score, 23rd in the Improvement Index, and ranked as the 14th safest team to bet on in 2022. 

 

So, what gives? Last year provides even less clarity.

 

Last Year’s Head To Head Behavior

 

The Bengals and Browns faced off twice last year, once with Jacoby Brissett as the starter, and once with Watson as the starter.

 

  • With Brissett as the starter, the Browns won 32-13. Brissett had no turnovers and threw a touchdown and rushed for another one. Nick Chubb went off for over 100 yards on the ground and had two touchdowns.

     

     

  • With Watson as the starter, just five weeks later, the Browns lost 23-10. Watson through an interception and a touchdown. Due to the defense not fearing him, they loaded up on Chubb and held him to just 34 yards.

     

     

  • In the first game with Brissett, the Browns had a scoring behavior (SBx) of 0.88 points scored per minute of possession time.

     

     

  • With Watson it dropped to 0.32 points per minute of possession time.

 

Bengals vs. Browns Prediction:

The Pigeon Pick

 

Joe Burrow Brings The Value To This Bengals vs. Browns Prediction

Joe Burrow Brings The Value To This Bengals vs. Browns Prediction

 

The Browns offense got behaviorally worse when they made the switch to who will now be their Week1 starter, Deshaun Watson, over their final six games of 2022, regressing by 50% in their scoring behavior (SBx) average.

 

Yes, Watson should be able to knock some rust off, but enough to keep up with the Bengals? We don’t think so. Our second Pigeon Pick of 2023 is to take the Bengals at -2.5* which we think is a STEAL.

*Pigeon Pick model and Football Behavior Newsletter subscribers made this bet at Bengals -1

Pigeon Pick Final Score Prediction

 

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