Our first Pigeon Pick of the year comes in the very first game of the NFL’s regular season with a Lions vs. Chiefs prediction and Lions vs. Chiefs picks for sports betting purposes.

 

As it stands right now, the point spread is the Detroit Lions +7 visiting the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Below, we discuss why that may be too large of a spread, and how bettors can take advantage before the spread narrows.

 

Reminder, as a primetime game, this pigeon pick is available to everyone.

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Lions vs. Chiefs Odds, Picks
 
  • Spread
    • Lions +7 (-115).
  • Moneyline
    • Chiefs (-300)
  • Dutching
    • N/A (To be added when odds for winning margins are released)
    •  

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I think it is possible the books are undervaluing the Lions in this Lions vs. Chiefs prediction. Right now, the books seem to place the Lions in a sort of middle tier of NFL teams. They are favored to make the playoffs (-170) and the NFC North (+195). However, they are seen far below the caliber of the Chiefs.

 

The Chiefs are favored to win the Super Bowl at +600, while the Lions are ninth at +2200. And, to yourselves, you might be saying “no sh**, Brett”. To which I couldn’t blame you.

 

But consider this: I do not think the gap between the Chiefs and Lions FOR AN OPENING NIGHT game, is not as large as the season long odds suggest. Here is why:

 

Traditional Stats Don’t Account For Behavior Change

 

Behaviorally, the Lions ended 2022 as one of the better teams in all of football, on both sides of the ball.

 

Traditional measures, like points per game, would tell you that the Lions finished 2022 ranked fifth best on offense, and third worst on defense. Being the third worst team on defense is NOT what you want to be going up against the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

But what these traditional statistics do not account for is behavior, and it’s exponential trends over time. That is going to matter big time for this Lions vs. Chiefs prediction.

 

Consider this:

 

The Lions defense that ended the year is not who they were at the beginning of 2022.

 

The traditional stats show they gave up an average of 25.1 points per game. But that number includes the first four games of the season where they gave up a staggering 1.14 points per minute of possession time on average. That equated to 34 points per game.

 

However, those stats don’t account for the behavioral trend that took place once their environment changed. The coaching staff made dramatic changes to the scheme on defense, simplifying it. That created a trending behavior change that led to 20% improvement week over week, shown by the slope of the green lines on the chart above. For more on this chart and what the different lines mean, visit our glossary of terms.

 

 

Over their final 13 games, they gave up an average of 0.745 points per minute of opponent possession time, a 34% improvement from their first four games. This is shown by the difference in the placement of the orange lines in the chart above. On a defensive chart, further down the chart is good.

 

What’s more, their best five performances came in the final eight weeks of the season, two of which came against playoff teams, and a third in a do or die game against a division rival on the road.

 

Don’t Forget The Lions Offense

 

The Kansas City Chiefs finished ranked number one in scoring behavior for 2022, averaging 0.928 points per minute of possession time through the 20 games they played in. Impressively, they did this while having logged no “extreme” outliers.

 

An extreme outlier is when a performance behavior occurs more the 0.15 outside of the bounce envelope, which is what measures a team’s consistency.

 

The Lions finished 2022 ranked 7th in scoring behavior at 0.775 points per minute of possession time. However, the Lions had two extreme outliers in weeks 5 and 7 of 2022 when they scored zero and six points, respectively.

 

If you remove those two outliers, in the other 15 games they averaged 0.958 points per minute of possession time. The would have ranked them higher than the Chiefs. Those 15 games are a better profile of who the Lions offense really is behaviorally.

 

With the news that new pass rusher Charles Omenihu will be suspended for the first six games of the regular season, along with no end in sight to the Chris Jones contract dispute, the Chiefs defense will be down at least one, maybe more, key pieces when this game takes place.

 

Lions vs Chiefs Prediction

 

The current 7 point spread could be too large. Behaviorally speaking, as it stands right now, the gap between these two teams isn’t a full touchdown.

 

Using the Football Behavior Margin Of Error Score, the Lions are ranked 15th. However, if we insert their 15 game scoring behavior number, removing those two extreme outliers, they jump up to 6th…one spot behind the Kansas City Chiefs.

 

So, with all of the behavioral data accounted for, we have run our official Pigeon Picks model projection, and thus, have our official Lions vs. Chiefs prediction…

 

Pigeon Pick 🕊️💸

Pigeon Picks | Vol. 1 No.1

 

Lions vs. Chiefs Final Score Prediction

  • Chiefs 26 | Lions 23

 

Our first Pigeon Pick of the 2023 NFL season is to grab the Lions at +7 against the spread. We think that spread is likely too big based on the behaviors of each team, and the stability of their environments carrying over from 2022.

 

The projection so far has the Chiefs winning by three points. Most likely, the current 7 point spread is going narrow slightly. Doubtful it gets any bigger. We are grabbing it now before that happens.

 

While Week 1 is the most unpredictable week of the NFL season, 5 out of the last 8 seasons have seen the NFL’s opening game decided by 7 points or fewer, though it should be said that fact has no real bearing on what will happen in this specific game.

 

Of Note: The Pigeon Picks Model went 80-46-8 against the spread in 2022. Remember, all Primetime Pigeon Picks predictions will be emailed to Football Behavior Newsletter subscribers, which is our free, curated newsletter.