Top Five Safest NFL Teams To Bet On From 2022

As a sports bettor, there’s nothing better than predictability. Sure, we want to take risks because often that is where the payoff is. But we want those risks to be calculated and follow a strict process. Following the Pigeon Picks model (FBx), these were the top 5 safest NFL teams to bet on in 2022, and what that risk looks like heading into 2023. 

Reminder: Only Pigeon Picks subscribers will get the risk reports every single week for every single game.

 

Here is why you should upgrade to the Pigeon Picks Model:

• Pays for itself
• Hit 67% on 300+ bets in 2022
• Had a 91% ROI
• Was ranked in the top 10 for ROI by SharpRank
• Get every final score prediction for every game, every week
• Weekly team behavior profiles to see how each team is trending
• Quarterback Props in all Primetime Games
• Much More!

 

Top 5 Safest NFL Teams To Bet On Heading Into 2023

As you go through the list, please refer to the the FBx Risk Assessment Key:

• x1 – x2.49 : Safe Bet
• x2.5 – x2.99 : Proceed With Caution
• x3 or Higher: Stay Away

Reading the Charts:

• The more Narrow the Solid Green lines (bounce envelope) the more consistent a team was
• Vertical Red Lines Represent and Environmental Change influencing team behavior

For more clarification, refer to the full Glossary Of Terms.

1A. Atlanta Falcons

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x2.1
  • Remember, this isn’t about being a good team. It is about being predictable enough to make money on. Atlanta was one of the safest NFL teams to bet on in 2022.
  • The offense had a “Safe Bet” x2.3 bounce rate.
    • On offense, 14 out of 17 games were between 0.5 and 0.9 SBx Rate.
  • The defense had a “Safe Bet” x1.9 bounce rate, best in the NFL.
    • On defense, 13 out of 17 games were between 0.6 and 0.8 SPBx Rate.
  • They had no major changes to their environment heading into 2023. 
  • The question mark is Desmond Ridder, isolating his four starts to close out the year, his bounce rate was slightly higher than the overall x2.3. Likely his performance stabilizes (even if not good). 
  • Falcons remain a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks of 2023.

 

 

 

1B. New York Giants

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x2.1
  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 9-3 on the moneyline and against the spread when picking New York Giants games in 2022.
    • Tied with Atlanta for “Safest Bet” during 2022. 
  • The offense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x1.7, the most predictable in the NFL.
    • On offense, 14 out of 17 games were between 0.6 and 0.9 SBx Rate.
  • The defense had a “Proceed With Caution” bounce rate of x2.5, just outside the “Safe Bet” range. 
    • No major environmental changes heading into 2023.
  • The New York Giants remain a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks of 2023.

 

 

2. Kansas City Chiefs

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x2.25 
  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 18-4 on the moneyline, against the spread, and dutching winning margins when picking Kansas City Chiefs games in 2022.
    • Performance meets predictability.
  • The offense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x2.1.
    •  On offense, 14 of 20 games were between 0.9 and 1.5 SBx Rate.
  • The defense had a “Safe Bet bounce rate of x2.4.
    • On defense, 14 of 20 games were between 0.7 and 0.9 SPBx Rate.
  • There may not be a safer bet than Patrick Mahomes and Andy Ried. 
    • Yes, there was a change at offensive coordinator. 
    • He is a familiar face to both Reid and Mahomes in Matt Nagy, and as long as Reid is still there, no drop off should be expected.
  • The Chiefs remain a “Safe Bet” through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season.

 

 

 

3. Cincinnati Bengals

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x2.3 
  • Football Behavior Prediction Model went 16-4-2 on the moneyline, against the spread, and dutching winning margins when picking Cincinnati Bengals games in 2022. 
  • Both sides of the ball were consistent with each other.
  • The offense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x2.3.
    • On offense, 12 out of 19 games were between 0.6 and 0.8 SBx Rate.
  • The defense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x2.3. 
    • On defense, 11 out of 19 games were between 0.4 and 0.7 SPBx Rate.
  • No major environmental changes occurred heading into 2023. 
  • With an elite quarterback and an elite defense, this team can be trusted to continue being consistent in the rate they score points and the rate at which they prevent them. 
  • The Bengals enter 2023 as a “Safe Bet” through the first three weeks.

 

 

 

4. Arizona Cardinals

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x2.45 
  • The Cardinals were predictably awful
  • The offense had a “Proceed With Caution” bounce rate of x2.7
    • The offense had consecutive weeks of a 0.3 SBx Rate and 1.4 SBx Rate.
  • The defense had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x2.2, the third lowest in the NFL.
    • On defense, 13 of 17 games were above 0.7 SPBx Rate. 
  • Major environmental changes occurred for Arizona. 
    • Brand new coaching staff
    • Uncertain quarterback performance
    • Loss of a major offense weapon
  • While the defense was bad, it was at least consistently bad. A new system and coaching staff throws that into flux. 
  • The relative instability on offense could be even worse this year with all of the changes. 
  • The Cardinals have been downgraded to “Stay Away” through at least the first three weeks of 2023.

 

 

 

Reminder, this is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the FREE Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more. 

Included in the newsletter:

• Weekly behavioral analysis of every team’s performance.
• Primetime Game Picks every week.
• Primetime final score projections every week.

 

Safest NFL Teams: What Does It All Mean?

For the Pigeon Picks model, risk is assessed by looking at something we call the bounce rate, or how much the data will vary from smallest to highest by a specific ratio, week over week. In betting, we want this variance in both points scored and points allowed to be as small as possible.

The Football Behavior (FBx) Risk Assessment is derived from looking at the bounce rates of an NFL team’s Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx), or how many points a team is scoring per minute of possession time per week, and their Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBx), or how many points a team is allowing their opponent to score per minute of opponent possession time per week. 

That is then weighted to produce the full team risk assessment. The higher the number, the less predictable a team was week to week. The lower the number, the more predictable. 

Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

• How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
• How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
• How a trend could impact the point spread
• How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. Get the full potential of the Football Behavior Prediction model by upgrading with Pigeon Picks! (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)