Top Five Riskiest NFL Teams To Bet On From 2022

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Top Five Riskiest NFL Teams To Bet On 

As you go through the list, please refer to the the FBx Risk Assessment Key:

• x1 – x2.49 : Safe Bet
• x2.5 – x2.99 : Proceed With Caution
• x3 or Higher: Stay Away

1. New Orleans Saints 

• 2022 Fbx Risk Assessment: x6.05
  • The New Orleans Saints are the only team in the NFL to have a 2022 bounce rate of over x4 on both sides of the ball. 
    • They have a 2022 bounce rate of x6 on BOTH sides of the ball. 
    • They are the only team in the NFL in 2022 to both get shut out on offense, and post a shutout on defense.
    •  On offense, they had six games where they scored 25 points or more, and six games where they scored 14 points or less. The definition of full team inconsistency. 
  • The addition of Derek Carr at quarterback should be a stabilizing force, but not enough to make them a safe bet early in 2023 and they still could end up as one of the riskiest NFL teams. This will be reassessed after Week 3 of the 2023 regular season. Until then, stay away. 

2. New England Patriots 

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x5.1
  • The offense had a moderate x2.7 bounce rate. The issue was defense. 
  • The defense had the highest defensive bounce rate in the league of x7.5.
    • The defense had three games allowing 0.1 points per minute of possession time or less, five games of allowing 0.9 points of possession time or more, eight games of allowing between 0.5 and 0.7 points of possession time. 
  • The Patriots spent their first three draft picks of 2023 on defense, one each in the secondary, linebackers and defensive line. They see the issues and hope it will provide consistency. Since these are new additions, take a wait and see approach and stay away through at least the first three weeks of the 2023 season. 

3. Indianapolis Colts

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment x4.5
  • The defense had a Safe Bet bounce rate of 2.4.
  • The offense had the highest offensive bounce rate in the NFL of x6.6. 
    • The offense had four games scoring under 10 points, six games scoring over 20 points, and six games scoring between 12 points and 17 points. Way too much variance almost evenly dispersed. 
  • There is a whole new coaching staff in place in Indianapolis on the offensive side of the ball, and likely a rookie quarterback starting Week 1. While they may ultimately be better, they likely will not be consistent. Stay away from betting on them through at least the first three weeks of 2023.

4. San Francisco 49ers

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x4.4
  • The offense has a “Proceed With Caution” bounce rate of x2.8. 
    • In the seven games started by Brock Purdy, they had a “Safe Bet” bounce rate of x2.3.
  • The defense, elite as it was, had a x6 bounce rate.
    • Including the postseason, the defense had four games allowing an SPBx of less than 0.3 points or lower, nine games between 0.4 and 0.6 SPBx, and five games of 0.8 SPBx or higher. 
  • Heading into 2023, Brock Purdy is expected to be ready by Week 1 and was a large reason for their late season success. He may provide even more consistency for the offense. 
  • The defense was much more consistent after the bye week. 
    • If you remove the outlier of the shutout on 11/27/2022, their bounce rate was a “Proceed With Caution” x2.8.  If that was paired with their offense, they wouldn’t be on this list.
  • Depending on the health of the quarterback position, “Proceed With Caution” through the first three weeks of 2023
    

5. Las Vegas

• 2022 FBx Risk Assessment: x4.25
  • The defense had the second lowest bounce rate in the NFL, a “Safe Bet” of x2.1. 
  • The offense had the second highest bounce rate in the NFL, a “Stay Away” of x6.4.
    • The offense had six games of an SBxR over 0.9, got shut out once and had three games with an SBxR under 0.4. 
    • The offense had seven games where they scored above 24 points and seven games where they scored below 21 points. 
  • The addition of Jimmy Garapolo at quarterback does not necessarily make them better, but it may make them more consistent on offense. 
    • In his 11 starts for the 49ers, Jimmy G helped the Niners to a “Proceed With Caution” bounce rate of x2.8. 
    • In Las Vegas, he is in a familiar offense and the unquestioned starter. I expect him to stabilize the offense somewhat.
  • Entering 2023, dependent upon the health of Jimmy G and off of the consistency of their defense, they are in the “Proceed With Caution” category for the first three weeks of 2023.  

Reminder, this is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more. 

 Riskiest NFL Teams: What Does It All Mean?

For the Football Behavior Prediction model, risk is assessed by looking at something we call the bounce rate, or how much the data will vary from smallest to highest by a specific ratio, week over week. In betting, we want this variance in both points scored and points allowed to be as small as possible.

The Football Behavior (FBx) Risk Assessment is derived from looking at the bounce rates of an NFL team’s Scoring Behavior Rate (SBxR), or how many points a team is scoring per minute of possession time per week, and their Score Prevention Behavior Rate (SPBxR), or how many points a team is allowing their opponent to score per minute of opponent possession time per week. 

That is then weighted to produce the full team risk assessment. The higher the number, the less predictable a team was week to week. The lower the number, the more predictable. 

Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

• How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
• How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
• How a trend could impact the point spread
• How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. Get the full potential of the model by upgrading to Pigeon Picks! (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)