Worst Five NFL Teams Who Regressed The Most

The Football Behavior Improvement Index (FBxII) tracks the overall regression of the entire team, taking into account both sides of the ball. By using a weighted combination of celeration rates, bounce rates, and behavior data, we are able to determine how the entire team is progressing, or regressing, throughout the course of an entire NFL season. Here are the worst five NFL teams who regressed the most in 2022, and what that could look like for 2023.

The Worst Five NFL Teams Ranked By Regression

The Football Behavior Improvement Index is on a scale from 20 to -20.

An index score of 20 indicates a 100% improvement over a given period of time, in this case the 2022 NFL season.
An index score of -20 would indicate a 100% regression.
Following that logic, 10 would be 50% improvement, -10 would be 50% regression.
An index score of 0 would be no improvement or regression, but simply that a team was stable and consistent from start to finish.

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5. Philadelphia Eagles

2022 FBxII Score: -10.32
- Over the course of the 2022 NFL season the Eagles regressed by ~51.6%.
- Defense regressed by 2% week over week, including the playoffs, in SPBx.
- Offense regressed by 4% week over week, including the playoffs, in SBx.

2023 Outlook: How is a Super Bowl runner up on this list?

- Not all regression is equal. They maintained a high level of play through their regression.
- Further regression is likely, however.
- Jalen Hurts will be taking direction from a new offensive coordinator, his seventh in six seasons. Yes, Brian Johnson was on staff last year, but he himself is still acclimating to Nick Sirianni and the Eagles, having only been there one year.
- The defense struggled against good offenses last season, and is also getting a new coaching staff.
- The defense only played four games against top 10 SBx teams, giving up an SPBx of 0.835, which would have been third worst in the NFL.

4. Miami Dolphins

2022 FBxII Score: -10.6
- Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Dolphins regressed by 53%
- Defense regressed by 3% week over week, including the playoffs, in SPBx
- Offense regressed by 8% week over week, including the playoffs, in SBx.
2023 Outlook: The Dolphins are on this list for one reason: Tua’s health.
- He has established himself as a top tier quarterback, when healthy
- With Tua, the Dolphins have SBx of 0.892
- Without Tua, the Dolphins have an SBx of 0.503
- The question isn’t whether or not you are bullish on the Dolphins, it’s whether or not you are bullish on Tua staying healthy?

3. Tennessee Titans

2022 FBxII Score: -10.7
- Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Titans regressed by 53.5%
- Defense regressed by 4% week over week in SPBx.
- Offense regressed by 8% week over week in SBx.

2023 Outlook: The Titans are half pregnant.

- Needed to get younger at key positions, didn’t.
- Have drafted two quarterbacks in the early rounds in consecutive years, yet remain poised to start Ryan Tannehill.
- The Titans are caught in no man’s land between a rebuild and an aging roster that used to be successful.
- Expect further regression that leads to a full rebuild in the near future.

2. Houston Texans

2022 FBxII Score: -10.86
- Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Texans regressed by 54.25%
- Defense regressed by 14% week over week in SPBx
- Offense regressed by 5% week over week in SBx
2023 Outlook: The Texans need a lot of work.
- Demeco Ryans takes over as head coach and his first order of business is establishing some type
  of culture and identity which is completely non-existent.
- Going to be a youth movement.
- CJ Stroud will need to take his lumps.
- Will Anderson should be a day one starter.
- Expect improvement in culture, but not the win column, yet.

1. Buffalo Bills

2022 FBxII Score: -11.38
- Over the course of the 2022 NFL season, the Bills regressed by 57%.
- Defense regressed by 24% week over week, including the playoffs, in SPBx.
- Offense regressed by 7% week over week, including the playoffs, in SBx.

2023 Outlook: The Bills could take a step back this year.

- Yes, Josh Allen is an elite playmaking quarterback, but he has to determine if he is going to be a quarterback first, football player second, or vice versa.
- His discipline regressed last year and it impacted the offense over the course of the season.
- The defense following the bye week was not nearly the dominant unit we saw earlier in the season.
- It is possible that not enough roster help was added in this offseason, and the Bills continue to regress as the teams around them all got better. Can they avoid being one of the worst five NFL teams based on in season regression in 2023?

Reminder, this is only the bottom 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the FREE Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more.

Included in the FREE newsletter:

Weekly behavioral analysis of every team’s performance.
Primetime Game Picks every week.
Primetime Game final score projections every week.
FBx Risk assessments for every team, every game, updated weekly.
Custom charts for primetime games, showing each competing team’s season progress.

Consider This From The Full NFL Team Rankings…

Of The Worst NFL Teams Ranked In The Bottom 10 of the FBxII:

60% had a losing record
60% missed the playoffs
Combined for a 48% winning percentage
Six were from the AFC
Four were from the NFC

Of The Worst Five NFL Teams of the FBxII:

60% had a winning record
60% made it to the playoffs
Combined for a 55% winning percentage
Four were from the AFC
One was from the NFC

Why Is This Valuable?

This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:

How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
How a trend could impact the point spread
How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend

With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)