Our Monday Night Football prediction features two pivotal matchups when we see the Eagles vs. Buccaneers, and the Rams vs. Bengals. Here’s why the Rams and the Eagles will be our Pigeon Picks Week 3 Monday Night Football picks.
Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday Night, 9/25/2023
- Game 1 Kickoff: 7:15 pm EST
- Game 2 Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST
- Where:
- Game 1: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Game 2: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
- Odds: Provided By PointsBet
- Game 1: Eagles -210 | Buccaneers +175
- Game 2: Rams +110 | Bengals -130
Don’t forget, in addition to our MNF picks, our model gives final score predictions and behavioral analytics for every game, every week to Pigeon Picks subscribers.
Our Season Stats Through Week 3 SNF picks:
- 71-42-2 ✅
- +16.12% ROI🤑
- Profit: +30.6 Units
- PAYS FOR ITSELF💲
- Hit 67% On 300+ NFL Bets In 2022
- Was Ranked In The Top 10 For ROI By SharpRank
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Behavioral Profiles
MNF Pick: Jalen Hurts And The Eagles Survive, But It May Not Be Pretty
Our first MNF prediction looks at a surprising NFC battle, the Saints vs. Panthers. The Eagles have survived some mediocre performances. The Buccaneers have been better than anyone anticipated. Which will win out tonight?
The Eagles offense is in regression from where they left off in their 2022 Score Prevention Behavior (SBx)*, something we already anticipated in our Week 2 Thursday Night Football prediction.
- In 2022, the Eagles had an average SBx of 0.925 points per minute of possession time with Jalen Hurts as a starter.
- That was number was ranked 2nd in the NFL behind only the Chiefs
- Through two games of 2023, they are averaging and SBx of 0.74
- 2023 Week 1’s SBx performance of 0.59 was lower than any offensive performance in 2022
*For a full list of terms and how to read the charts, check out our glossary of terms
Monday Night Football Prediction: Eagles Must Stem Their Offensive Regression
They’ll be facing a Buccaneers defense that has an average Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx) lower than any defense they have faced yet in 2023. They held one of the top scoring offenses in Minnesota to their lowest SBx in two years in Week 1.
Rams vs Bengals Prediction: Behavioral Profiles
Monday Night Football Prediction: How Much Is Joe Burrow’s Health Impacting Their Offense?
Our Monday Night Football prediction for Game 2 features a Super Bowl rematch. It’s Rams vs. Bengals. The health of Joe Burrow is an issue in this one, as the offense has been slow, and the benefit of outliers.
Bengals are way off of their 2022 SBx pace.
- The Bengals had a mediocre SBx average in 2022 of 0.734
- That was outside the top 10 in 2022
- Their 2023 SBx performance is averaging below 0.5 points
The Bengals are considering shutting Burrow down, and he is a gamete decision in this one. On the other side, the Rams are probably a better team than many suspect. This game is most likely to end in an upset with the Rams not just covering, but winning outright.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers, Rams vs. Bengals Monday Night Football Pick
Both of these games present an interesting opportunity to see how these teams continue to shape their behavior. The Eagles may show to not be as formidable as many assumed. The Buccaneers may be better than many assume.
As for Game 2, our Monday Night Football prediction believes both of the teams in this Rams vs. Bengals are not who we assumed they would be. The Bengals could fall into an AFC North hole after tonight, while the Rams show they are more competitive than many believed.
Eagles vs. Buccaneers, Rams vs. Bengals MNF Pick & Prediction
Our Official Week 3 Monday Night Football Prediction:
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Final Score Prediction and Picks
- Projected Score
- Eagles 23 | Buccaneers 20
- Game 1 Spread
- Buccaneers +5
- Football Behavior did not place a bet against the spread
- Game 1 Moneyline
- Eagles -225
- Game 1 Dutching Winning Margins (What is Dutching?)
*We bet a $30.00 total stake proportionately across all 3, turning a profit if any one hits
-
- Eagles By 1-6 +300: $11.87
- Eagles By 7-12 +400: Bet of $9.50
- Buccaneers By 1-6 +450: Bet of $8.63
- If any one margin hits: Profit of $17.48
- Game 1 Risk Report
- 23.7% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Relatively Safe Bet
- Most Likely Outlier: Philadelphia Eagles Defense Has A Bounce Rate Of x3.4
Rams vs. Bengals Final Score Prediction and Picks
- Projected Final Score
- Rams 24 | Bengals 18
- Game 2 Spread
-
- Rams +3
- Game 2 Moneyline
- Rams +130
- Football Behavior did not place a bet on the moneyline
- Game 2 Dutching Winning Margins
*We bet a $30.00 total stake proportionately across all 3, turning a profit if any one hits
-
- Rams By 1-6 +375: $10.24
- Rams By 7-12 +600: Bet of $6.95
- Bengals By 1-6 +280: Bet of $12.80
- If any one margin hits: Profit of $18.66
- Game Risk Report
-
- 25.2% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Proceed With Caution
Disclaimer: Through Week 3 SNF, the Pigeon Picks Model is 71-42-2 overall with a +16.12% ROI. Overall in 2022, it went 193-91-7 and was ranked inside the top 10 for ROI by SharpRank. Subscribe below for the model’s FULL potential!
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Sunday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit