Eagles vs. Buccaneers Super Wild Card Round Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday, January 15th, 8:15 pm, est
- Where:
- Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
- Odds:
- Line: Eagles -3
- O/U: 44.5
- What To Do:
- Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬
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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Super Wild Card Round Picks
How We Bet (Placed Monday 1/8/2024):
- Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
- Buccaneers Moneyline (+115)
Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Eagles’ Offensive Challenges
Statistical Analysis of Scoring Regression
The Philadelphia Eagles, despite an impressive overall record of 11 wins and 6 losses in the 2023 season, have shown a troubling trend in their offensive performance. Their offense has seen a 5% week-to-week regression in the celeration rate of their scoring behavior throughout the season. This regression has brought their geometric mean of scoring behavior down to 0.713 points scored per minute of possession time. More worryingly, in four of their last six games, they have scored below this already diminished rate.
Implications of Possession Time Reduction
Compounding these issues is a 10% regression in their time of possession week to week, reducing their scoring opportunities and leading to a projected scoring behavior rate of just 0.675 points per minute, totaling less than 20 points for a full game duration of 29 minutes of possession. Remember the First Law of Football Behavior, an offense’s primary responsibility is to score points, and they can ONLY do that when they possess the ball. The combination of a reduced scoring behavior rate AND a reduced time of possession could be fatal for Philadelphia.
Buccaneers’ Defensive Strategy
Understanding the Score Prevention Metrics
On the other side, the Buccaneers’ defense, with a geometric mean of 0.609 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, stands as a formidable barrier to the Eagles’ already declining offense. This robust defense, excluding a Week 18 outlier shutout of the Panthers, which would only bolster this number, suggests the Buccaneers are well-equipped to continue the Eagles’ offensive struggles.
Analyzing the Eagles’ Defensive Performance
Trends in Score Prevention Behavior
However, the Eagles’ defense isn’t faring much better than their offense. They’ve shown a regression in the celeration rate for their score prevention behavior, with a geometric mean of 0.771 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time, ranking third-worst in the NFL. In five of their last seven games, they have allowed points above this average, and they are projected to surrender above 0.7625 points per minute in their upcoming match, allowing the Buccaneers to score ~23 points.
Implications of Possession Time Allowed
The Eagles defense is seeing a week to week 9% regression the possession time they allow opponents to have. That is concurrent to a 3% week to week regression in their score prevention behavior rate. This invoked the Second Law of Football Behavior. A defense’s primary responsibility is to prevent the scoring of points, and they can only do that when their opponent possesses the ball. The Eagles are allowing their opponent to possess the ball longer and longer, and yielding a higher rate than what is already the third worst SPBx mark in the NFL.
Buccaneers’ Offense: Unpredictability as an Advantage?
Growth and Decline Patterns
The Buccaneers’ offense, conversely, has shown 6% week-to-week growth throughout the regular season. Despite this growth, they’ve experienced four consecutive weeks of SBx decline in their last four games, following four weeks of growth. Their high bounce rate of x2.9 indicates a relative lack of internal control over their behavior, suggesting they tend to play to the level of their opponent. Facing the third-worst defense in the NFL could be an advantageous matchup for them.
Final Eagles vs. Buccaneers Prediction: Buccaneers’ Edge in the Super Wild Card Round
Given these intricate trends and the behavioral analytics provided by Football Behavior, the Buccaneers appear to have the edge in this Super Wildcard prediction. Their stronger defense and the potential to exploit the Eagles’ defensive weaknesses, particularly in the passing game, combined with the Eagles’ offensive struggles, tilt the prediction in favor of the Buccaneers. This game will be a testament to how trends and behavior analysis can provide a deeper and more nuanced understanding of team dynamics and potential game outcomes than traditional statistics alone.
- Projected Score (Geometric Mean Across All Non-Outlier Outcomes)
- Eagles 19.57, Buccaneers 23.55 (W)
- Projected Spread: Eagles +4
- Non-Environmental Eagles Outcome: 26-18 (L)
- Non-Environmental Buccaneers Outcome: 21-20 (L)
- How We Bet (Placed 1/8/2024)
- Buccaneers +2.5 (-105)
- Buccaneers Moneyline (+115)
- Risk Report
- Most Likely Outlier: Both Offenses
- Proceed With Caution
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
