The Football Behavior Saturday Showdown prediction for Week 15 features the Broncos vs. Lions showdown. Based on the detailed analysis of both teams’ performance behavior trends, home-field advantage, and key statistical factors, it is important to note that the Broncos’ recent form and their solid defense, especially against third-down conversions, indicate that they are capable of putting up a strong fight, perhaps even pulling off an upset. The game is likely to be closely contested, but the Lions’ advantages in key areas, especially considering their performance at home, cannot be ignored. Below is our detailed behavioral analysis, along with what bets we have personally placed based on that.Â
Week 15 Saturday Showdown Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Saturday Night, December 16th, 2023, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- Ford Field, Detroit, MI
- Odds:
- Line: Broncos +4.5
- O/U: 48
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- Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬
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Week 15 Saturday Showdown Picks
Bets Placed:
- Broncos Moneyline (+185)
- Broncos +4.5 (-115)
Broncos vs. Lions: Week 15 Saturday Showdown Prediction
Our Saturday Showdown prediction shows that while the Lions have a potent offense, especially at home, the Broncos’ edge in time of possession and stronger defensive metrics could give them a narrow advantage in this matchup. The key will be the Broncos’ ability to effectively use their possession time to score and their defense’s capability to limit the Lions’ scoring opportunities. Nonetheless, it remains a closely contested prediction, with the potential for either team to leverage their strengths to secure a win. Our Week 15 Power Rankings could see a shake up based on the outcome of this game, which currently sees the Broncos as the higher ranked team. Here’s each team’s behavior profile.Â
Broncos Performance Behavior and Trends
The Broncos kick off this Saturday Showdown prediction, riding the momentum of winning 6 out of their last 7 games, including notable road victories including vs. the Bills in Buffalo., display a team finding their form. Their offense, with a 1% week-to-week celeration growth in scoring behavior, shows a steady, albeit modest, improvement. The x2 bounce rate for the offense indicates strong internal control, suggesting their performance is less influenced by external factors and more by their own strategies and execution.
Even in the lone loss in their last seven contests, vs. the Texans, they had a chance to win on the final play but threw an interception due to a receiver drifting too far into his route. They had two additional turnovers in that game as well. And yet, they had every opportunity to win the game in the end.Â
Defensively, the Broncos are showing significant improvement with a 21% celeration trend in score prevention behavior, and are unrecognizable to the team who gave up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins. There has been alot of talk regarding the benefit of turnovers which are seen to be more flukey rather than a reliable indicator of performance. But that is a bit too dismissive of their success.
They are currently number two in the league in third down conversion percentage allowed. Before anyone suggests that that in any way could be influenced by the turnovers, since the Bills game, they have forced 12 turnovers. Only three of them have occurred on third down. This analysis lines up with their x2.4 bounce rate, which is a bit higher than their offense, it still indicates relatively strong control, with only a moderate influence from external factors. This defensive solidity could be a crucial factor in this Saturday Showdown prediction.
Lions Performance Behavior and Trends
The Lions have a role to play in this Saturday Showdown prediction. They have had a more mixed run, winning just four of their last seven games. However, their scoring behavior is on a positive trajectory with a 5% celeration trend. Being at home, where they have historically performed better, could be advantageous for them. Their projected scoring behavior, across all environment, of 0.9 points per minute of possession time at home is a robust figure, suggesting they could put up a significant number of points against the Broncos.
However, we suspect part of the Broncos gameplay will be to control the clock, looking for at minimum a slight edge in time of possession in order to limit the opportunities of the Lions offense. Their abilities at home, or in doors, are amplified mightily compared to when they are out doors and in the cold.
On the defensive side, the Lions exhibit a high score prevention behavior rate, matching their scoring behavior rate (0.9 points allowed per minute), which is much higher than the league average, with only Washington having a worse geometric mean for their SPBx. Their x3.3 bounce rate on defense indicates a substantial influence from external factors, which could be a concern when facing the steadily improving Broncos offense.
Saturday Showdown Prediction, Picks
Given the above factors for this Broncos vs. Lions matchup, the Broncos’ edge in time of possession and stronger defensive trend slightly shifts the advantage in their favor. The Broncos’ potential to control the game’s tempo and keep the Lions’ potent offense off the field more could be crucial, especially considering the Lions’ higher points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. The Broncos will need to demonstrate their stronger internal control of their behavior to pull this one out.
Broncos vs. Lions: Saturday Showdown Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score (Average Across All Non-Outlier Outcomes)
- Broncos 24.56 (W), Lions 21.65
- Bets Placed
- Broncos Moneyline (+185)
- Broncos +4.5 (-115)
- Risk Report
- Most Likely Outlier: The Lions on both sides of the ball
- Proceed With Extreme Caution
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
