Here is the latest update to our Week 15 NFL Power Rankings. Joe Flacco and the Browns moving up, while the Eagles and Dolphins are moving down, and by next week they could be even further. Reminder of the criteria:
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Win-Loss Record is used only as a tie breaker. Otherwise these would just be standings.
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Head to Head is also a tie breaker, but only if the game was played within last three weeks
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The rankings have three core components:
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Margin For Error Between Scoring Behavior rate (SBx) and Score Prevention Behavior rate (SPBx)
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Environmental Control, measured via bounce rate for each team’s offense and defense
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Celeration Trends of each team’s behavioral change. Improvement and Regression in each team’s behavior is weighed heavily.
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Without further ado, here are the rankings:
Week 15 Power Rankings
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49ers
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Ravens
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Cowboys
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Bills
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Browns
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Broncos
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Rams
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Bengals
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Chiefs
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Dolphins
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Jaguars
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Eagles
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Packers
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Buccaneers
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Lions
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Texans
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Titans
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Seahawks
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Saints
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Colts
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Vikings
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Jets
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Bears
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Falcons
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Giants
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Steelers
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Jets
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Chargers
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Raiders
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Commanders
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Patriots
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Panthers
*Bold Denotes A Projected Playoff Team As Of Week 15
Biggest Week 15 NFL Power Rankings Movers
Moving Up
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Bengals: Everyone expected a drop off from Joe Burrow to Jake Browning, especially following browning’s first start. Instead, the Bengals turned in there two best performances of this season. Their scoring behavior is improving a whopping 65% week to week since Week 1, and their defense is seeing 11% week to week improvement, while rising to 10th on the margin for error chart.
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Browns: Joe Flacco, yes, that Joe Flacco, is giving the Browns their best quarterback play in two years. He is keeping them in playoff contention, and making up for continued poor score prevention play from their defense. Their defense may be the most overrated unit in all of football, but with Joe Flacco steadying the offense, at least for this week, they rise up due to a strong Margin For Error ranking, and an offense seeing 13% improvement week to week. Doubtful the defense helps them stay here, and Flacco likely in store for a return to earth, but for now…
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Buccaneers: The victory over at Atlanta got them into positive territory for Margin For Error, one of only 13 teams to have that distinction this season. Their offense is seeing 20% week to week growth, and for now, they should be considered the front runners for the NFC South.
Moving Down
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Eagles: It feels like all season we have felt that this team was on fraud alert. In fact prior to the season we felt a regression was coming. And, in fact, it had. But their record had not caught up to the regression due to a string of very fortunate outlier outcomes benefitting mostly their defense. Well, have back to back drubbings at the hands of the best teams in the conference, it has become clear that Philly is not one of those teams. They have a negative Margin For Error on the season, while their defense is seeing 8% week to week regression and their offense is seeing 7% week to week regression.
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Dolphins: Another team we had been pointing out seemed to be really affected by opponent quality, especially defense. Against the Titans, that narrative was exemplified yet again. While they maintain a healthy Marging For Error ranking, they fell three spots there, and their offense is seeing 18% week to week regression since Week 1, and their defense again showed it’s erratic behavior with it’s x3.3 bounce rate.
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Lions: Just when we’re ready to crown them, they do Lions-like things. Losing to the Bears is not what you want to do when the number one seed is coming up for grabs due to the Philly down fall. Unfortunately, they have a negative Margin For Error, due to their defense having the second worst SPBx, combined with a 15% week to week regression.
Week 15 NFL Power Rankings: Environmental Control Chart
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Lower Left: Strong Internal Control Over Performance Behavior For Both Offense And Defense
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Upper Right: Weak Internal Control Over Performance Behavior For Both Offense And Defense
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Upper Left: Weak Internal Control on Defense, Strong Internal Control on Offense
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Bottom Right: Weak Internal Control on Offense, Strong Internal Control On Defense.
Main Takeaways
- Patriots continue to break the chart on offense. Their level of volatility is the worst in at least two years. They maintain a strong defense.
- Browns continue to have one of the more overrated units on defense. They have early season outliers of the extreme variety that pull their averages down, but six of their last eight performances have been at a SPBx of a 0.9 our above, worst in the league in that span.
- Titans continue to be the most consistent team in football, though with middling results. Could Will Levis through variance into the mix, but with improved results overall?
Week 15 NFL Power Rankings: Margin For Error Chart
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Lower Right: Best Margin For Error, High SBx, Low SPBx
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Upper Left: Worst Margin For Error, Low SBx, High SPBx
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Upper Right: Low Performing Defense with high SPBx, High Performing Offense with low SBx
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Bottom Left: Low Performing Offense with Low SBx, High Performing Defense with Low SPBx
Main Takeaways
- 49ers remain the clear best team in football but the Ravens and Cowboys are going to make it fun
- Detroit’s defense may keep it from truly contending
- Not used to seeing that many teams between the Chiefs and top spot on a chart