Our FBx Sunday Night Football prediction for the Ravens vs. Chargers sees the Chargers offense struggling to keep pace with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens due to the Ravens consistency, and a lack of their own. The early bye week was not kind to them. Find out what we mean in our behavior profile below, which illustrates why we placed each of the bets listed below in our Sunday Night Football picks.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Sunday Night, November 26th, 8:20 pm, est
- Where:
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Odds:
- Line: Ravens -3
- O/U: 48.5
- What To Do:
- Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬,
- Our insights have led to a 68% hit rate and a profit of 80+ units and counting in 2023
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Ravens vs. Chargers: Bets Placed
Here are the Sunday Night Football picks we made off of the Football Behavior NFL Bets prediction model:
- Ravens -3.5 (+100)
- Ravens OVER 24.5 (-140)
- Chargers UNDER 24.5 (-165)
- Teaser (+175) (What Is A Teaser Bet?)
- Chargers UNDER 24.5
- Ravens OVER 24.5
- 3-Leg (+200)
- Ravens -3
- Ravens OVER 24.5
- Chargers UNDER 24.5
Sunday Night Football Picks: Ravens vs. Chargers
Our Sunday Night Football prediction for the Week 12 Ravens vs. Chargers matchup doesn’t feel as important as it could have felt if the Chargers didn’t all but remove themselves from the conversation following the Week 11 loss to the Packers. They now sit in last place in the AFC West and seem to be on the brink of a new era on the horizon. Their offense has been regressing 11% week to week from the start of the season in their scoring behavior rate, and has been scatter shot since their bye week.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Chargers Offense
Not only has the geometric mean of their SBx dropped 23% since the bye week, their volatility has increased by 69% with their bounce rate ballooning from x1.3 to x2.2. Typically coaches want to take advantage of the bye week and improve upon the areas in need of fixing. With an early season bye week that proves to be more difficult. Thus, the regression on offense and increased volatility. They’ll be facing a Ravens defense that has been as consistent as it gets, and when they do stray from that, it is in the direction of dominance.
Sunday Night Football Prediction: Ravens vs. Chargers Offense
The Ravens defense has been good all season, and the extremely consistent. They have an outlier adjusted x1.5 bounce rate. This means their projected performance has a range of probable outcomes a multiple of only 1.5 times from their most likely result. An example would be that if they were projected to give up 20 points, their range of outcomes would be a high of 30 points or a low of 13 points. That may seem like a large range, but in the NFL that’s actually quite narrow, and it gets narrower once we add in the opponent’s probabilities.
When they’ve deviated from their consistency, it has been in the direction of dominance. They have had three outliers this season (Weeks 3, 6, & 9), and all three have been dominant performances in which they have allowed combined 18 points for a geometric mean of 0.31 SBx across the three contests. The Chargers cannot afford unforced errors like seem to so frequently derail them.
Ravens vs. Chargers: Sunday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior Sunday Night Football prediction for the Week 12 Ravens vs. Chargers matchup believes that the Chargers offense must return to pre-bye week form in order for them to have a chance. Their defense is a MASH unit and is facing an offense that has found its stride and identity at the most opportune time. If the Chargers scoring behavior rate is at its current geometric mean on Sunday, that will result in a Chargers loss.
Ravens vs. Chargers: SNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score (Average Across All Likely Outcomes)
- Ravens 28.74, Chargers 21.42
- Bets Placed
- Ravens -3.5 (+100)
- Ravens OVER 24.5 (-140)
- Chargers UNDER 24.5 (-165)
- Teaser (+175) (What Is A Teaser Bet?)
- Chargers UNDER 24.5
- Ravens OVER 24.5
- 3-Leg (+200)
- Ravens -3
- Ravens OVER 24.5
- Chargers UNDER 24.5
- Risk Report
- Outlier-Adjusted 19.4% Risk
- Most Likely Outlier: Chargers Defense (25%)
**All Odds provided by Caesars (Last Updated Saturday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
