Thanksgiving Day NFL Prediction, Picks: Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Cowboys, Seahawks vs. 49ers

Our Thanksgiving Day NFL Predictions Features Three BIG Divisional Games: Packers vs. Lions, Commanders vs. Cowboys, Seahawks vs. 49ers! Each of games comes with some risk, but our projections have some big differences with the books, which might have allowed us to find some really safe bets. Every bet we’ve placed is below, along with detailed behavior analysis for every game. Happy Thanksgiving!

 

Thanksgiving Day NFL Prediction: What To Know

 

• When:
  • Thursday, November 23rd
• Where:
  • Packers vs. Lions
    • Ford Field, Detroit, Michigan
  • Commanders vs. Cowboys
    • AT&T Stadium, Dallas, Texas
  • Seahawks vs. 49ers
    • Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington
• Odds:
  • Packers (+7.5) vs. Lions
  • Commanders (+430) vs. Cowboys
  • Seahawks (+240) vs. 49ers

     

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Packers vs. Lions: Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

 

Bets Placed:

• Packers Alt Spread +11.5 (-184)
• Alt. Over 43.5 (-179)
• Lions UNDER 29 (-145)
• Packers OVER 16.5 (-199)
• Teaser (+141)
  • Packers +11.5
  • Alt OVER 43.5

 

 

 

 

 

The story of this Packers vs. Lions Thanksgiving NFL prediction is whether or not the Packers offense can keep pace with the Lions. Heading into their by week they were in a steep 58% week to week regression. Coming out of the bye week, they have seen week to week improvement of 65%, with four consecutive games with a better performance than the week before. However, overall they’re still seeing 20% week to week regression and while they’ve been getting better, their performances have still be below league average. 

 

 

 

 

They’ll have a chance to keep this close because the Lions defense has an outlier adjusted 0.901 SPBx, which is bottom five in the entire league. The Packers faced one of those defenses this past week and pulled off the upset. We don’t think that happens here, but this likely won’t be a multi-score blow out with a final score projection of 27-21 Lions, with a 21% outlier-adjusted risk report.

 

 

Commanders Cowboys: Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

 

Bets Placed:

• Cowboys ALT UNDER 30.5 (-120)
• Commanders ALT OVER 18.5 (-115)
• Game ALT OVER 44.5 (-194)
• Commanders Alt Spread +14.5 (-184)
• Conservative Teaser (+134)
  • Commanders +14.5
  • OVER 44.5
• Aggressive Teaser (+204)
  • Commanders +11
  • OVER 45.5

 

 

 

Our Commanders vs. Cowboys Thanksgiving NFL prediction looks closely at the Cowboys defense. When you account for outliers against four of the worst five offensive teams in the NFL, the defense has actually given up an eye-opening large SPBx. When they have faced decent offenses, they have struggled at preventing points when they are on the field. Against the Cardinals, 49ers, Chargers, Rams, Eagles and Giants (Six of their last Eight games), they have an average SPBx of 0.883 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time. 

Against the Giants, Jets, Patriots and Panthers, they have an average SPBx of 0.255. They only thing that has saved them in those six games against average or above offenses was their own offenses ability to possess the ball, having it for minimum of 29m42s, and having it over 34 minutes four times. 

 

 

The Commanders average SBx (0.775) would seemingly place them above the black line in the chart above. The Cowboys are 2-3 against the teams above that line. If the Commanders can find a way to possess the ball, and stick to their average SBx, they could make this one more competitive than the book makers think it will be. We believe it will be competitive, and are taking a conservative betting approach to take advantage of the big difference between us and the books on odds, based on our final score projection of 27-24 Cowboys, with a 21.7% outlier-adjusted risk report. 

 

Seahawks vs. 49ers: Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

 

Bets Placed:

• 49ers -6.5 (-130)
• 49ers OVER 24.5 (-120)
• Over 41.5 Total (-130)
• Seahawks Over 14.5
• Just For Fun Parlay (+320)
  • 49ers -6.5 (-130)
  • 49ers OVER 24.5 (-120)
  • Over 41.5 Total (-130)
  • Seahawks Over 14.5

 

 

 

 

Our Seahawks vs. 49ers Thanksgiving NFL prediction examines the return of the 49ers dominant offense. Every team is effected by injuries, no doubt. But when three central figures to your performance environment are injured at once, and they trickle back to the lineup one by one, you have an opportunity to look at each one’s relative value to the collective.

 

The chart below shows that when Deebo Samuel, Trent Williams and Christian McCaffery were all injured against the Browns, the offense saw a 36% dip over the next three games. CMC came back in that Browns game, though obviously less than 100%. Deebo returned two weeks ago, and Trent Williams returned last week. Instantly they’re back at their over 0.95 SBx rate from before the injuries. 

 

 

 

With the Seahawks coming in with an offense that is at best middle of the pack, and the 49ers bringing an equally as dominant defense to the table, we think the 49ers have a chance to run away with this one. Our final score projection is 27-17 49ers, with a 22.2% risk report. 

Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks

 

These game all seem to favor the home teams. Though each one is a divisional matchup and the brings certain levels of unpredictability. Our Thanksgiving NFL predictions looked to find some discrepancy with the books and find the most likely events to happen based on each team’s behavior, while finding the odds good enough to make it worth it.