Our Thursday Night Football prediction for the Bengals vs. Ravens Week 11 matchup draws the connection between Lamar Jackson’s turnover behavior and their win-loss record. If Jackson protected the football, there aren’t many lanes for the Bengals to pull off an upset. Below is every bet we’ve placed based on each team’s behavior, and the underlying behavior analysis.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, November 16th, 8:15 pm, est
- Where:
- M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
- Odds:
- Bengals +150
- Ravens -180
Bengals vs. Ravens: Thursday Night Football Picks
Bets Placed:
-
- Alt OVER 42
- Alt OVER 40.5
- Ravens ML
- Bengals Alt UNDER 24.5
- Ravens Alt OVER 21.5
- Teaser
- Alt OVER 42
- Ravens ML
- Teaser
- Ravens Alt. Spread -2.5
- Alt OVER 40.5
Finally, a Thursday Night Football prediction for a matchup that should have everyone excited as two AFC north rivals face off in this Bengals vs. Ravens showdown. For the Ravens, as Lamar Jackson goes, the team goes. “No sh*t, Brett.”
Yes, that goes without saying, but it’s more than just feeling that way, the numbers quantify it. The Ravens have lose 30% of their games this year. Yet, 50% of Jackson’s turnovers have come in those three losses. Jackson is tied for third most turnovers by a quarterback this season, and is coming off of a week where he had two turnovers, one of which was a sick six late in the game that gave the Browns life, and ultimately opened the door for them to come back and win.
The last three weeks the Ravens offense has had its three best weeks in terms of scoring behavior rate. Two of those games have been over 1 point scored for every minute of possession time, and a third at 0.93. But (yes, there’s a but), they have been regressing over those last three games, likely coming back to their geometric mean of 0.859 SBx.
That is significant because that is right about where they ended up in Week 2 when they played the Bengals last time. The difference this week however, is the Bengals defense has also been regressing in each of the last three weeks since coming out of their bye week.
To make matters worse, Defensive End Sam Hubbard has been ruled out for the game, and while Trey Hendrickson is slated to play, he was limited all week in practice, or the approximation thereof. This is the rare game where both sides of the ball, the Ravens offense and Bengals defense are trending towards the same destination.
Bengals vs. Ravens: Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior Thursday Night Football pick for the Week 11 Bengals vs. Ravens matchup is a Ravens victory. They’re the better, and healthier, team. The offense, while regressing is still at an elite level. The question is simply if Lamar Jackson can protect the football. If the answer is yes, they’ll win.
Bengals vs. Ravens TNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- Bengals 21 | Ravens 27
- Bets Placed
- Alt OVER 42
- Alt OVER 40.5
- Ravens ML
- Bengals Alt UNDER 24.5
- Ravens Alt OVER 21.5
- Teaser
- Alt OVER 42
- Ravens ML
- Risk Report
- 16.8% Outlier-Adjusted Chance Of Outlier Performances: Relatively Safe Bet
-
- Most Likely Outlier: Ravens Defense, 30% of their games have been outliers
**All Odds provided by Caesars Sportsbook (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
