Sunday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 9: Bills vs. Bengals

Josh Allen’s individual football behavior directly correlates to the Bills scoring behavior. Below we explain how that played into all seven bets we placed for the Bills vs. Bengals. Our Sunday Night Football picks were based on not only that, but also the final score projection of the most likely outcome. Find out below how we use human behavior to make these predictions. 

Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

• When:
  • Sunday Night, November 5th, 8:20 pm, est
• Where:
  • Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
• Odds:
  • Bills +115
  • Bengals -135

Bills vs. Bengals: Bets Placed

Here are the Sunday Night Football picks we made off of the Football Behavior NFL Bets prediction model:

• Straight Bets
  • Bengals ML
  • Bengals Alt. Spread +3.5
  • Bills Alt. Spread +6.5
  • Game Alt. Total UNDER 51.5
  • Bengals Alt. Total UNDER 27
  • Bills Alt. Total UNDER 23.5
    
• Dutch Betting: Winning Margins
  • Bills By 1-6 OR
  • Bengals By 1-6 OR
  • Bills By 7-12
  • What Is Dutching?

For us here at Football Behavior, this game is about the direct correlation between Josh Allen’s individual performance behavior, and the Bills scoring behavior on offense. The Bills offense, when accounting for outliers, is in a slight 16% week to week regression in points score per minute of possession time.

Josh Allen is third in the NFL in total turnovers. 70% of them have come in the Bills three losses. More than that, the issue seems to be the more he throws, the higher the risk of a Bills loss and turnover. In four games this season, the Allen has dropped back to throw the ball 40 or more times. A whopping 80% of his turnovers have come in those games, and all three of the Bills losses. 

The additional challenge for the Bills is that not only is the Bengals offense on a week to week 21% improvement, but their offense is showing signs of breaking out of the early season slump they have been in. If in fact the Bengals offense is waking up, When accounting for early season outliers, the Bengals scoring behavior is improving 49% week to week as shown on the chart below. 

Black Line Shows The Bengals Offense Improving Week To Week

Our prediction model gives a slight edge to the Bengals in this one, with them winning a one score game as the most likely outcome. The good thing about our model, though, is that it gives us a range of potential outcomes. In this one, either team has a high potential to win, with that win coming in a one score game, regardless of who is on top. Thus, our dutch betting strategy.