The Football Behavior Thursday Night Football prediction analyzes the Bills erratic offense and the Bucs better than expected defense. We look at the key behaviors involved and let you know what Buccaneers vs. Bills bets we placed, and more importantly, why.

Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

  • When:
    • Thursday Night, October 26th, 8:20 pm, est
  • Where:
    • Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
  • Odds:
    • Buccaneers +330 
    • Bills -425

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bills Bets

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bills UNDER 24.5

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bills UNDER 24.5

 

 

  • Bills UNDER 24.5 (+110 @ PointsBet)

 

There are a few reasons we placed this bet. In our Thursday Night Football prediction, we took a look at the scoring behavior of the Bills offense. To see that it is erratic is an understatement. They have a x2.6 bounce rate. That means that their next performance could be a multiple of 2.6 in either direction. To put that level of variance into context, we project them to score 24 points. But in their scoring behavior (SBx) variance means they could score as many as 43 points, or as little as 10 points. Massive swing. 

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bills Offense Very Erratic

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bills Offense Very Erratic

 

On top of that they have a 43% outlier rate. Three of their seven games have been outliers, two of which were outliers at the bottom end of their behavioral range. It’s no wonder they are near .500 at 4-3. They’re lucky they aren’t 3-4, and if Tyrod Taylor remembered how clocks worked a the end of the first half in the Giants game, they would be. 

 

Bills could be 3-4 if Tyrod Taylor remembered how clocks work.

Bills could be 3-4 if Tyrod Taylor remembered how clocks work.

 

One of the main issues for this is, unfortunately, Josh Allen. He is like a Zack Snyder super hero. He’ll likely get the bad guy, but there is bound to be collateral damage to the civilians. He is second in the league in interceptions thrown, and second in overall turnovers for a quarterback. 

 

Josh Allen's Erratic Behavior Has Bled Into The Whole Offense

Josh Allen’s Erratic Behavior Has Bled Into The Whole Offense

 

Add to that the Buccaneers defense is improving 15% week to week in their score prevention behavior (SPBx). They are averaging 0.53 points allowed per minute of opponent possession time and haven’t had an SPBx of more than 0.7 all season. We think the Bills, coming off two straight games under 0.8 SBx, will score less than 25 points.

 

*All terms, and why they matter, can be found in our glossary of terms 

 

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Buccaneers Bets

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bucs Alt. Spread +12.5

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bucs Alt. Spread +12.5

 

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bucs/Bills go UNDER

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Bucs/Bills Go UNDER

 

 

 

As mentioned above, the Buccaneers defense plays a large role in our Thursday Night Football prediction. They have given up 15% less points per minute of possession time on average week over week this season. What is even more impressive is the consistency with which they have done it. If not for one outlier, in the right direction, they would have a bounce rate of only x1.3. Even with the outlier, their bounce rate is x2. 

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bucs Defense Has Been Dominant

Buccaneers vs. Bills: Bucs Defense Has Been Dominant

To put that in context, the Buccaneers are only projected to give up 15 points across all environments. A bounce rate of x1.3 means they COULD give up a high of 20 points or a low of 12 points. Very manageable. So we think the Bills may win, but the Buccaneers will make them work for it, and will be able to stay within two touchdowns, which is why we went with that alternate spread at -175, which would net us an ROI of 57% if it hits. 

 

As we mentioned above, we like the Bills to score under 25 points, and we expect the Buccaneers to score less than that, as you’ll see in our final score projection. Their SBx on offense is regressing at A 41% rate week to week. Their 3-1 start distracted people from their offensive woes, but their scoring behavior finally caught up to them. That probably continues on Thursday Night.

 

TNF Prediction: Bucs Offense Going In The Wrong Direction

TNF Prediction: Bucs Offense Going In The Wrong Direction

 

We got UNDER 45.5 -150, which would net us a 67% ROI. 

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills Thursday Night Football Pick

 

The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 8 thinks that while the Bucs defense has been dominant, their offense just doesn’t score enough points to keep up with the Bills. They’ll make the Bills offense work for every point, but the Bucs offense likely can’t reciprocate. 

 

Buccaneers vs. Bills TNF Pick & Prediction

 

  • Projected Score
    • Buccaneers 16 | Bills 20
  • Straight Bets Placed
    • Bills UNDER 24.5 Points
    • Buccaneers Alt. Spread +12.5
    • UNDER 45.5 Alt. Total
  • Risk Report
    • 27.2% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Proceed With Extreme Caution
    • Most Likely Outlier: Bills Offense. They have an x2.6 bounce rate and a 43% outlier rate in their seven games

 

**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Wednesday PM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit

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