It’s Cowboys vs. Chargers for this Week 6 Monday Night Football prediction. Using our Football Behavior sports betting model, we’ll tell you which offense is heading in the right direction, and which isn’t. We’ll also highlight how important Kellen Moore seems to be, along with how nervous the Cowboys defense makes us. Plus, get every bet we’ve placed on this game, all from the Pigeon Picks model.
Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday Night, 10/16/2023
- Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST
- Where:
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Odds: Provided By PointsBet
- Cowboys -125
- Chargers +105
Cowboys vs. Chargers: Cowboys Behavior Profiles
Cowboys vs. Chargers: Dak Prescott Needs To Get The Offense On Track
Last week in our Week 5 Sunday Night Football prediction, we warned about the reality that the Cowboys defense had yet to be tested, and that their volatility was worrisome. Well, that came to fruition and they were summarily thumped against the 49ers. In this weeks Monday Night Football prediction, they come up against a similarly explosive offense coming off of a week of rest. How the Cowboys defense responds will be key to this Cowboys vs. Chargers matchup.
But more than that, we need to focus on the Cowboys offense. While the defense was getting a lot of attention, we have glossed over the steady week to week regression of their offense. They are a far cry from the offense we saw when Dak Prescott returned from injury last year. To add intrigue, former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will be on the opposite sideline, no doubt hoping to show that one offense is with the times, and the other…is the Cowboys.
- The Cowboys are averaging 39% LESS points per minute of possession time through five games, than they did in Dak’s last 11 games of 2022.
- They averaged a scoring behavior rate (SBx) of 1.097 when Dak returned from injury in 2022.
- They are averaging an SBx of 0.669 through five games in 2023.
- What is worse is that they have a deceleration trend of 48% week to week
- While that trend is likely unsustainable, it is steep enough to wonder if the current SBx average is the floor, or a true measure of where they are
Monday Night Football Prediction: Cowboys offense is slowing down
On Monday night, they will be facing a Chargers defense with a colloquial history of being untimely, but after Week 1 against the vaunted Dolphins, they have had three consecutive performances better than the last, all coming under 0.8 points allowed per minute of possession time, and their last game coming in at a score prevention behavior rate of 0.5 points allowed per minute of possession time. Cowboys have a tough battle on their hands to reverse the trend in this Cowboys vs. Chargers matchup.
Cowboys vs. Chargers: Chargers Behavior Profiles
The Chargers offense is key area of focus in our Monday Night Football prediction for Week 6. This Cowboys vs. Chargers matchup is a tale of two cities on the offensive side of the ball. For all the issues we highlighted for the Cowboys, the Chargers are heading in the opposite direction. Each team made a significant environmental change on the offensive side of the ball following 2022, and it involved one person: Kellen Moore.
The Chargers have not only improved their scoring behavior under Moore so far in 2023, but they have become a more stable and consistent offense, something that was at the heart of their struggles a year ago. The Cowboys on the other hand, have done the opposite. This could be a great case study for the importance of environment in team performance and how crucial environmental construction (coordination and play calling) really is to team success.
- Chargers have seen a 29% growth in their scoring behavior from 2022, through four games in 2023
- They had an average SBx of 0.738 in 2022
- That is up to 0.951 in 2023
- They have also become much more stable and consistent
- They had a bounce rate of x2.2 in 2022
- In four games in 2023, their bounce rate is down to x1.3
- That is a 40% improvement
Monday Night Football Prediction: Chargers Improving In All The Right Ways, So Far
This Cowboys vs. Chargers matchup will come down to the Chargers offense being able to remain consistent. They face a Cowboys defense that has been anything but. While they Chargers offense sports a x1.3 bounce rate, the Cowboys defense has a x9.9 bounce rate, but has consistently struggles against better offenses. Our Monday Night Football prediction comes down to which Cowboys defense shows up.
Cowboys vs. Chargers Monday Night Football Pick
The Cowboys vs. Chargers Monday Night Football pick for us at Football Behavior came down to which team stays true to who they are. We always tend to go with consistency and the Chargers are the more consistent team. The volatility of the Cowboys defense would typically have us stay away from this game for sports betting purposes, but we think the stability of the Chargers may rule out.
Cowboys vs. Chargers MNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- Cowboys 14 | Chargers 24
- Bets Placed
- Chargers Alt Spread +5.5 (What’s Is An Alternate Spread?)
- Chargers ML
- Dutching Winning Margins (What Is Dutch Betting?)
- Chargers 1-6
- Chargers 7-12
- Chargers 13+
- Risk Report
- 33.3% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Proceed With Extreme Caution
- Most Likely Outlier: Cowboys defense with a x9.9 bounce rate, which is an outlier in an otherwise very stable matchup
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Sunday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit