Our Monday Night Football prediction between the Packers vs. Raiders looks at the behavioral trends of both teams. The Packers are trending in the wrong direction, but could a potential Week 3 outlier be the culprit? Meanwhile, the Raiders offense isn’t trending as severely, but they may simply just be bad. Can either defense show us who the real offense is?
Monday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Monday Night, 10/9/2023
- Kickoff: 8:15 pm EST
- Where:
- Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, Nevada
- Odds: Provided By PointsBet
- Packers +110
- Raiders -130
Packers vs. Raiders: Packers Behavior Profiles
MNF Prediction: Jordan Love Out To Reverse The Trend Against The Raiders
The Packers offense started out hot in 2023. So much so that many wondered if Jordan Love could really be the third in a trio of all-star quarterbacking starting with Brett Favre back in 1992. But, to make out Monday Night Football prediction, we looked at the Packers trend with their scoring behavior, and it is trending in the wrong direction. For two games they averaged 1 or more points per minute of possession time, and then Week 3 brought them way down. Week 4 saw them get close with 0.9 points of possession time, but still part of a downward trend.
- Packers scoring behavior rate (SBx) is regressing 41% week over week.
- A scoring slow down of ÷1.7 is weighing on their numbers
- Week 3 seems, as of now, to potentially be an outlier and that could be pulling the trend further down
Monday Night Football Prediction: Packers Must Find Out If Week 3 Was An Outlier
Our MNF prediction focuses on whether or not Week 3 was an outlier for the Packers, or part of a deceleration trend in their scoring. They are facing a defense, that despite having one of the top edge players in all of football (Maxx Crosby), is also trending in the wrong direction. If Green Bay wants to make the most of this Raiders vs. Packers matchup and reverse the trend, this is the defense to do it against.
Packers vs. Raiders: Raiders Behavior Profiles
The Raiders offense is also seeing regression, though much more slight. However, that slightness is only because they have been consistently bad. They have yet to get above 0.6 points per minute of possession time. Their x1.3 bounce rate highlight the consistency with which their poor performances have occurred, and how that might mean it is time to think of them as a poor offense moving forward, with a breakout seemingly not in the cards.
- Raiders SBx is regressing by 14% week over week
- Their average SBx is 0.555 points scored pre minute of possession time
- They have a x1.3 bounce rate, which makes them very consistent, and predictable, through four weeks
Monday Night Football Prediction: Raiders Offense Is Probably Bad
They will face a Packers defense who up until Week 4 was having top 10 season in score prevention behavior rate (SPBx). Our Monday Night Football pick rests on the idea that it is unlikely the Raiders offense has a breakout, and the Packers Week 4 performance looks more like an outlier.
Packers vs. Raiders Monday Night Football Pick
The Packers offense may be regressing, but the Raiders offense is just flat out bad. Which means, for our Monday Night Football prediction, we must tease out which defense is likely to keep the opponents offense true to who they are. For us, we think the Packers will defense will keep the Raiders offense consistent, while the Raiders defense makes Week 3 look like more of an outlier for the Packers scoring behavior.
Packers vs. Raiders MNF Pick & Prediction
- Projected Score
- Packers 22 | Raiders 21
- Bets Placed
- Packers Alt Spread +6.5 (What’s Is An Alternate Spread?)
- Raiders Alt Spread +6.5
- Risk Report
- 17.8% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Relatively Safe Bet
- Most Likely Outlier: Packers defense with a x2.4 bounce rate
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Sunday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit