Sunday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 2: Dolphins vs. Patriots

Our Week 2 Sunday Night Football prediction will shed light on the AFC East battle, Dolphins vs. Patriots. Miami had an offensive explosion in Week 1, while New England lost a nail biter to Philly. Based on our Pigeon Picks model, we think we will see a close matchup that reveals more about who these teams truly are.

 

Sunday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

• When:
  • Sunday Night, 9/17/2023, 8:20 pm EST Kickoff
• Where:
  • Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
• Odds:
  • Dolphins -150
  • Patriots +125
• Pigeon Picks 2023 Stats:
  • 33-14 Record
  • 35.6% ROI 

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The Dolphins Offense Was Explosive, Defense Exploded

 

 

 

 

Our Week 2 Sunday Night Football prediction starts back in Week 1. Against the Chargers, the Dolphins offense was downright scary. Tua had 466 passing yards and Tyreke Hill had over 200 receiving yards. They scored 36 offensive points, the most in Week 1. But, lets dive deeper:

 

• Dolphins had an SBx* of 1.3 points per minute of possession time. 
  • Tied for second highest in the Tua/McDaniel era
  • 0.436 higher than the Dolphins 2022 average with Tua as a starter
• 87% of their yards came via the passing game
  • Highest % in the Tua/McDaniel era

*Our full glossary of terms explains our analytics and how to read the charts

 

When we see such big numbers like this, we have to wonder about the possible effect of an outlier. Dating back to the beginning of this performance environment at the start of 2022, in games that Tua has started (13), the Dolphins have averaged an SBx of 0.864. 1.3 would seem to be an exception thus far. We expect that to come down in Week 2. 

 

 

Dolphins Defense Is Still Learning

 

The Defense on the other hand, seemingly picked up where they left off, and they play a crucial role in our SNF prediction. They are in a brand new performance environment with new defensive coordinator Vic Fnagio, and the learning curve showed, especially on the ground.

 

• Week 1 showed an SPBx of 1.1 points allowed per minute of possession time. 
  • This was just above their 2022 trend line, and nearly identical to their SPBx in the playoff game vs. Buffalo, their last game played before this one.
• The Chargers were able to be well balanced and had 233 rushing yards, accounting for 53% of their production, against the Dolphins defense. 
  • We expect New England to attempt to exploit this in our SNF prediction for Week 2, not only to have a balanced offense, but to control the clock and limit Miami’s offense opportunities to score.

 

 

Is Mac Jones Taking A Step Forward?

 

 

As we sat down to put together our Sunday Night Football prediction for Week 2, we were reminded that New England was a top half of the league scoring team in 2022. You wouldn’t know it from the surrounding narrative about this team in the Post-Tom Brady era. Mac Jones has not put up prolific numbers but has largely helped to keep the offense on track. 

• New England saw 1% SBx growth in 2022, at an average (adjusted for outliers) of 0.783 points per minute of possession time
  • That was good enough for 7th in the NFL

 

• Mac Jones saw identical 1% growth in his passing yard behavior for 2022, which averaged at 7.68 yards per minute of possession time. 
  • His Week 1 performance was 11 yards per minute of possession time, tying a career high. 

 

 

New England in Week 1 had an opportunity to be better than their 0.7 Sbx. If not for a pick-6 by the Philly defense, New England would have likely won that game, especially if that lost possession had resulted in any points at all, as they outscored the Philly offense 20-18. Jones had 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns, and a chance to win it on 4th down on the last drive of the game.

Our SNF pick for Week 2 is based on them being able to exploit weaknesses in the Miami D as they are still in their learning phase. That suggests a run-heavy approach, which will also serve as a clock-control measure to keep Miami’s explosive offense off the field. But if the run gets shut down like it did in Week 1, do we have faith Jones can shoulder the load? He did it just one week ago.

 

Dolphins vs. Patriots Sunday Night Football Pick

 

Our Week 2 Sunday Night Football prediction weighs the explosiveness of Miami’s offense against the shut-down ability of the Patriots defense. The outlier we are attempting to be aware of is Mac Jones and the offensive approach New England decides to take against the still-learning Miami D. Here is what we came up with for our SNF pick and how to spread your betting risk with dutching, to account for multiple outcomes.

 

Dolphins vs. Patriots SNF Pick & Prediction

 

The official SNF prediction Week 2, from the Pigeon Picks sports betting model:

 

• Final Score Prediction
  • Dolphins 24 | Patriots 22
• Spread
  • New England +3 (-115*) 
  • *NOTE: The Patriots covering the spread (-115) is FAVORED over the Dolphins covering the spread (-105) 
• Moneyline
  • Dolphins (-150)
• Dutching Winning Margins*

*We placed $10 on each of the following three winning margins for a total stake of $30. Only one needs to hit to turn a profit on the $30 total stake.

• • Dolphins By 1-6 +310 
    • If this hits, you bet $30 to win $41
  • Patriots By 1-6 +400
    • If this hits, you bet $30 to win $50
  • Dolphins By 7-12 +450
    • If this hits, you bet $30 to win to win $55

• Game Risk Report

• • 24.2% Chance Of Outlier Performances
  • Proceed With Caution: The season is still early and these teams are still shaping their own behaviors.

 

**Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Saturday AM)