In the Football Behavior Week 2 Thursday Night Football prediction, we have a Vikings vs. Eagles matchup that has the Super Bowl runner up coming off a nail biting win, and last year’s NFC two-seed coming off a disappointing loss. What role does the apparent regression of Jalen Hurts play in our Pigeon Picks model? Find out with our Week 2Thursday Night Football Pick.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When: Thursday Night, September 14th, 8:20 pm, ET
- Where: Lincoln Financial Philadelphia, PA
- Odds: Vikings +250 | Eagles -371
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Jalen Hurts May Be Regressing
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Jalen Hurts Is The Key The Eagles Winning
Our Thursday Night Football pick starts with last year’s NFC champion. As is often the case in the NFL, the Eagles making it to the Super Bowl made them prime candidates to have their coordinators swiped for teams looking for new head coaches. For the Eagles, they lost both.
I had written for another outlet this spring that I expected Jalen Hurts to regress this year as a result. 2022 was his second with Shane Steichen and he exploded into the MVP conversation. 2023 will see him with his seventh new offensive play-caller in 8 years. Yes, it is someone already on staff in Brian Johnson, but last year was Johnson’s first year in the organization and working with head coach Nick Sirianni. So Johnson himself is still learning on the job.
Also, Jalen Hurts experienced an 8% week over week performance regression closing out 2022. In fact, had he played another game after the Super Bowl, he would have been projected to throw for 5.9 yards per minute of possession time. How did he perform in Week 1, his actual next game? 5.9 yards per minute of possession time.
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Hurts Regressed By 8% Week Over Week
His 170 passing yards Week 1 were not enough to keep pace with the New England Patriots, whose offense outscored the Eagles offense 20-18. If not for the pick-six by the Eagles defense, they very well could have lost that game. In 2022, due to their rushing attack they still put up points despite Hurts’ regression. Their rushing attack was stymied in Week 1 and their SBx of 0.59 points per minute of possession time was well off their 2022 average of 0.925.
Hurts’ potential regression is something to keep monitoring, as well as its potential effect on the new offense’s ability to score points.
Vikings Defense Might Be Better
Thursday Night Football Prediction: Vikings Defense Needs To Shut Down The Run
Just like losing a coordinator can be a negative for a performance environment, gaining one could be a huge upgrade. We may be seeing that with Brian Flores. Now, granted, they played the Buccaneers. Yet, in 2022, it didn’t matter who they played, they were awful.
In 2022 they gave up almost .8 points per minute of possession time for a score prevention behavior (SPBx) that ranked seventh worst in the NFL. I mean, they gave up 1.1 points per minute to the lowly Colts. So, their 0.68 SPBx performance Week 1 was a decent sight to see.
If not for three costly turnovers by the offense, they performed well enough to win the game. The key will be for them to control the running game of the Eagles and force them into clear passing situations. Against Tampa they yielded only 2.2 yards per carry. A dominating performance.
Flores was famously the play caller for the New England Patriots in their Super Bowl victory over the Rams just several years ago. Belichick is still in New England, and they just held Philly to 3.7 yards per carry.
If the Vikings recreate that, they’ll give themselves a chance to win, making this Thursday Night Football prediction a close one to call.
Vikings vs. Eagles Thursday Night Football Pick
The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 2 starts with when we grabbed the Vikings at +7 on Tuesday. We thought that spread was likely too big based on the behaviors of each team, significant environmental factors, and their Week 1 performances. We alerted our Football Behavior Newsletter subscribers that they needed to act fast, before it narrows.
That’s said, we do see the Eagles pulling this one out in the end, but the Vikings are going to make them work for it. The Vikings offense played really well, when they weren’t turning the ball over. Turnovers are not typically predictive, and we don’t anticipate the Vikings having three turnovers in every game. We also think the Eagles defense is quite overrated as well, and this offense can run it up quick. Given the match on the other side of the ball that we already highlighted, we see this as being as close one all the way to the end.
Vikings vs. Eagles TNF Pick & Prediction
All of the bets from Pigeon Pick Sports Betting Model can be tracked on Pikkit
All Odds Provided By PointsBet Unless Noted Otherwise
- TNF Prediction: Final Score
- Vikings 21, Eagles 24
- Moneyline
- Eagles -371
- Spread
- Vikings +6.5*
*Football Behavior Bet Vikings +7
- Dutching: Winning Margins (Proportionally Bet $30 Across All Three)
- Eagles By 1-6 (+310) (bet $11.78)
- Vikings By 1-6 (+500) (bet $10.17)
- Eagles By 7-12 (+500) (bet $8.05)
$30 total. If any one of those winning margin hits, you win a profit of $18.30, for a payout of $48.30.
- Game Risk Report
- 19.7% Chance Of Outlier Performances, likely the winning team wins this one by 1-6 points
- Safer than any of the games in Week 1 were
Disclaimer: We went 4-1 in our Week 1 TNF Prediction, along with a 28-14 overall Week 1 record, and a 32% ROI. In 2022, we had an overall 91% ROI, which ranked inside the top 10 by SharpRank.
**Odds last updated at PointsBet Wednesday evening