At Football Behavior, we use the preseason to gather information and to build behavioral profiles of who these teams are. When we get to see starters in action, it goes a long way to helping us with our predictions. There were a few teams in particular that played their presumptive starting quarterback often in the preseason. Two of those teams face off in Week 1, leading to yet another Pigeon Pick. Here is our Jaguars vs. Colts prediction.
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Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction:
Picks
- Spread
- Jaguars (-5.5)*
- Moneyline
- For Pigeon Picks Subscribers Only
- Dutching
- For Pigeon Picks Subscribers Only
*The Pigeon Picks Model made this pick when the spread was Jaguars (-3.5)
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Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction:
Behavior
Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction
Back on August 15th, we told our Football Behavior Newsletter subscribers that the spread in the Week 1 Jaguars vs. Colts game was too narrow at Jaguars -3.5.
We told them to act fast because the line was sure to get further apart the closer we got to the season, and the more people watched rookie starter Anthony Richardson.
Our Jaguars vs. Colts prediction was based on the Colts scoring behavior with him in the preseason, but also on the Jaguars from 2022, and what we saw from them in the preseason.
Here is what we told subscribers then:
As for the Colts, we got to see 27 plays of the Anthony Richardson-led Colts offense. It produced zero points. They had a chance for three points at the tail end of a 14 play drive, but the field goal went wide left.
We saw what should be expected from a rookie. We saw a glaringly bad decision that resulted in an interception. We also saw glimmers of the play making ability that led the Colts to draft Richardson in the first place
The final drive for them was perhaps the most interesting. 14 plays over 83 yards resulting in a field goal opportunity.
The drive lasted 5 minutes and 51 seconds of possession time. Even if we assumed the field goal went through and they did get the three points (Matt Gay has an 88% career field goal percentage), that would be an SBx (See: Glossary Of Terms) of 0.52 points per minute of possession time.
While that is an improvement on 2022’s 0.409 SBx, it is still almost half the pace of the Jaguars.
Oh, and by the way, the hypothetical 0.52 SBx was only for that one drive. They had two other drives combining for 13 plays, 6 minutes and 14 seconds of possession time. So hypothetically, with the missed field goal becoming a made field goal, were looking at a hypothetical 3 points over 12 minutes and five seconds.
That would be an SBx of 0.25 points per minute of possession time. Yeesh.
Ultimately, we project the Colts to be better than last year. Anthony Richardson is going to have his growing pains though, and by the looks of things, points are going to come in a more methodical fashion.
Colts Showed More Of The Same
Colts Take Too Much Time In This Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction
In making this Jaguars vs. Colts prediction, we got to see more of the Anthony Richardson-led Colts, and what we saw only further cemented our thinking. To finish out the preseason, the Colts led by Anthony Richardson went on 8 drives totaling 25 minutes and 13 seconds. They scored a total of 17 points over those 25+ minutes.
That gives them an SBx of under 0.7 points per minute of possession time. Better than a year ago, but still not good enough. The Jaguars starters finished the preseason with 15 points in 17 minutes and 24 seconds. They were a fumble on the Miami one yard line from that being 22 points. That would have put them well above 1 point per minute of possession time.
These teams are behaving much as expected. If their time of possession behavior holds true, the difference between 0.68 SBx and 1.3 SBx is roughly a whopping 18 points. We don’t think the final in this one will end up being that big, but certainly more than the original 3.5 point spread the game was set at.
Well, the line has in fact moved. It is now Jaguars -5.5. That is a significant jump as it removes the possibility of a 1-5 point victory being enough to cover. That is important because a 1-5 point margin of victory happens roughly in one third of the time in NFL games.
The silver lining is that a 6 point margin of victory is the third most common in that time span. And, if as we expect from the Pigeon Picks model, you think that the Jaguars are going to win this game by a touchdown or more, grabbing them at -5.5 is still the play. But, again, these lines will move again as we get closer to kickoff.
Jaguars vs. Colts Prediction:
Final Score
Pigeon Picks subscribers will get the official final score projection for this game, and every game, heading into Week 1, along with updated behavioral profiles for each and every team, including an update of the risk assessments for each game. Upgrade today so you don’t miss out! Pigeon Picks could pay for itself Week 1!