With behavior science we can measure when and how fast an offense’s performance is regressing as the season progresses, each and every week. In fact, Football Behavior does this at both the overall team level with its proprietary “Football Improvement Index”, as well as focusing on each side of the ball, offense and defense. Below is a list of the worst five NFL offenses ranked by their regression from 2022.
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Here are the worst five NFL offenses who regressed the most over the course of the 2022 NFL season, and what it means for them heading into 2023.
Worst Five NFL Offenses Ranked By Their 2022 Regression
As we go through the worst five NFL offenses from 2022, here is the key for reading the charts:
- Orange Lines: Scoring Behavior Rate (SBx) Average
- The lower on the Y axis, the better for a defense.
- Green Lines: Bounce Rate Boundaries
- Everything outside the green lines is considered an “outlier performance” during the environmental condition.
- The closer the green lines are together, the more stable a team is.
- Solid Black Line: Celeration trend
- Trending down means an offense is getting worse
- Trending up means an offense is getting better.

Falcons offensive regression in 2022
5. Atlanta Falcons
- 2022 Offensive Regression: 15%
- Week over week, the Falcons got worse by 15% in SBx.
- Desmond Ridder had some growing pains.
- Before Ridder was named the starter, the offense had a 0.731 SBx
- After Ridder was named the starter, the offense had a 0.54 SBx, a 25% decrease.
- 2023 Outlook: The Falcons had opportunities in the offseason to upgrade at quarterback, but they have decided to stick with Ridder. They are anticipating growth in his second year. How much growth can reasonably be expected though? It is unlikely they dramatically reverse the trend they finished 2022 on, as one of the worst five NFL offenses in terms of regression.

Browns offensive regression in2022
4. Cleveland Browns
- 2022 Offensive Regression: 20%
- Week over week, the Browns got worse by 20% in SBx.
- Inserting Deshaun Watson into the lineup was a disaster.
- With Brissett as the starter, the Browns had an 0.726 SBx.
- With Watson as the starter, the Browns had a 0.412 SBx, a 43% decrease.
- 2023 Outlook: Deshaun Watson looked every bit like a guy who hadn’t played NFL level football in two calendar years, besieged by a heinous scandal. The question for Browns is whether or not he can return to the form that enticed the Browns to sell out for the quarterback? It’s unlikely they fully reverse the trend, but they can’t really be any worse heading into 2023.

Saints offensive regression in 2022
3. New Orleans Saints
- 2022 Offensive Regression: 22%
- Week over week, the Saints got worse by 22% in SBx.
- Andy Dalton was not the answer.
- Once Andy Dalton took over in Week 4, the Saints offense regressed by 33%.
- 2023 Outlook: The Saints clearly realized the answer to their quarterback problem was not on the roster. The addition of Derek Carr will help them reverse this trend in 2023. Do not be surprised if the Saints are a dark horse team to make the postseason and avoid being one of the worst five NFL offenses in terms of regression.

Ravens offensive regression in 2022
2. Baltimore Ravens
- 2022 Defensive regression: 23%
- Week over week, the Ravens got worse by 23% in SBx.
- The offense was regressing with Lamar Jackson.
- Prior to his season ending injury, the offense led by Lamar Jackson was regressing by 24% week over week through 11 games.
- 2023 Outlook: A lot of questions about the Ravens chances for success seemingly relied on the idea that with a healthy Lamar Jackson, they would have been ok. The offense was trending the wrong way even with Jackson. In 2023 he will be learning a new offense that asks him to be more of a spread passer than a power run quarterback. The answer to their success is dependent on whether or not he can adapt to the new environment effectively.

Jets offensive regression in 2022
1. New York Jets
- 2022 Offensive Regression: 27%
- Week over week, the Jets got worse by 27% in SBx.
- The Jets should have stuck with Joe Flacco.
- Flacco is the only quarterback that was trending up.
- Zach Wilson’s seven starts saw a 72% regression week over week.
- Mike White’s three starts saw a 94% regression week over week.
- Zach Wilson and Chris Streveler saw a combined 66% regression over their final four games.
- 2023 Outlook: The Jets likely would have been a playoff team if they had even a modicum of competency at the quarterback position in 2022. The move for Aaron Rodgers and the migration of his 2021 Green Bay Packers environment to New Jersey will certainly be a massive upgrade over the disaster it is replacing, preventing them from again finishing as one of the worst five NFL offenses in terms of regression.
Consider This From The Full 32 NFL Team Rankings
- Offense still matters more for overall teams success…
- Of the bottom 16 NFL teams ranked for offensive improvement, 100% had a negative Football Behavior Improvement Index score.
- 56% missed the playoffs
Reminder, this article is only the top 5. To unlock the whole list, make sure you subscribe to the Football Behavior Newsletter for every team, plus much more.
What Does It All Mean?
In behavior analysis, we use something called “celeration rate” to track how fast, or slow, behavior is improving or regressing. The reason for this is that behavior change is exponential, not linear. To accurately understand how and if behavior is improving, we need to track its exponential growth through acceleration or deceleration.
Once we know the rate of improvement, or regression, we can begin to tease out the causes for those rates. Coaches that Football Behavior work with find this data valuable because it helps them know if they are on the right track, or if they need to change something up. It also helps everyone pinpoint the key moments that made, or broke, a season.
Why Is This Valuable?
This information not only helps coaches and players, but also fans and especially sports bettors. With this level of accuracy in understanding team performance, we can begin to make better decisions about:
- How likely a team is to continue a certain trend
- How to bet off of two teams trends who are competing head to head
- How a trend could impact the point spread
- How certain environmental changes could bring an end to a particular trend
- With this information, the Football Behavior Prediction Model had a betting record of 193-91-7, a net profit of +680.2 units, and a 91.01% ROI during the 2022 NFL season. (All Football Behavior bets tracked publicly by Pikkit)