Football Behavior
NFL Predictions With Behavior ScienceExclusive Analytics
Predictions Made
%
Correct Prediction Percentage (Winners, Spreads, Team Point Totals, Player Props)
Recent Analysis
The Most Recent In-Depth, Exclusive Analysis From Football Behavior
NFL Analytics Predictions: Who Took The Tougher Path To The 2024 Super Bowl?
If You're Short On Time... The Chiefs again have played the MUCH tougher schedule heading into the big game 49ers had one of the easiest offensive schedules in the NFL UPDATED: NFL Margin For Error Ranking NFL Analytics Prediction: Chiefs Prove Elite Status En Route...
2023-2024 NFL Power Rankings: Super Bowl Margin For Error Score
If You're Short On Time... The 49ers Reclaim The Throne Ravens Fall Behind The Super Bowl Will Feature The Top Two MFE Teams For The Second Straight Year The Super Bowl Will Feature The Top SBx Team For The Second Straight Year How We Do It: Margin For Error Rankings:...
2024 AFC Championship Prediction: Chiefs More Battle Tested Than Ravens
If You're Short On Time... The Chiefs played a tougher offensive schedule than Baltimore did Ravens enjoyed flukey success against winning teams How We Bet... Chiefs +3.5 (-120) Chiefs ML (+175) Chiefs OVER 18.5 (-165) Ravens UNDER 26.5 (-170) FULL NFL Margin For...
2024 NFC Championship Pick: Lions vs. 49ers
If You're Short On Time... The Lions Used Their Bye Week Wisely 49ers Need Deebo Samuel Healthy How We Bet... Lions +6.5 (-105) 49ers ML (-290) Lions OVER 20.5 (-140) 49ers UNDER 30.5 (-140) FULL NFL Margin For Error Rankings 2024 AFC Championship Pick 2024 NFC...
2024 AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs vs. Ravens
If You're Short On Time... Chiefs Started Slow, But Adapted Nicely If Trends Continue They Can Win How We Bet... Chiefs -3.5 (-120) Chiefs ML (+160) Chiefs OVER 18.5 (-165) Ravens UNDER 26.5 (-170) FULL NFL Margin For Error Rankings 2024 AFC Championship Pick: Chiefs...
2023-2024 NFL Margin For Error Rankings: Conference Championship
NFL Margin For Error Rankings (MFE) is how we at Football Behavior do a version of 'Power Rankings". With only two weeks of football left, there is still some movement to be made among the top teams remaining. Our top three MFE teams have each made it to the final...
FAQ
Why A Pigeon?
Behaviorist B.F. Skinner famously used pigeons in his experiments. One of his most well know experiments was when he used pigeons to establish the formation of superstitious thinking. He observed pigeons behaved in a certain way in order to access food, and began to make assumptions about what they had to do in order to get it, even if those behaviors were not actually the trigger to getting food.
Likewise, football fans, sports bettors, sports media, etc., all tend to fall into superstitious thinking, or explanatory fictions, when they attempt to explain what it is they are seeing on the field. The conversations tend to move away from observable behaviors into the subjective reasoning and assumptions. We use our decade+ of experience working directly with NFL players and coaches, as well as expertise in behavior science to avoid that trap and to educate our audience directly on what really matters.
Is Your Newsletter Free?
We have both a free option and a premium option. The full potential of football behavior is unlocked in our premium offering which includes access to everyone of our predictions, the full scope of our analytics, our entire creative content library, and any bets we have placed based solely on those predictions.
Subscribers to our free newsletter will get curated content, as well as predictions, analytics and our bets for every primetime games, as well as early access to our educational courses and creative content.
Why Is This Valuable?
Our focus is solely on educating football fans and coaches as to how human behavior plays a significant role in performance. We have applied this in the real world scenarios, both on field and through sports betting. Our track record speaks for itself.
From training an NFL Offensive lineman during his year away from the game, helping him become a starter immediately upon his return, to hitting over 68% of our sports bets. There is valuable information for everybody!