Scoring Behavior (SBx):

The geometric mean for points scored per minute of possession time by the offense of a sports team.

• Represented by an orange horizontal line on a Standard Celeration Chart. The higher on the vertical axis, the better the performance.

Scoring Behavior (SBx) Rate:

The rate of improvement or regression, over a period of time, in an offense’s Scoring Behavior (SBx).

• Represented by a solid black line on a Standard Celeration Chart. Sloping up represents improvement, while sloping down represents regression.

Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx):

The average points allowed per minute of opponent possession time by the defense of a sports team.

• Represented by an orange horizontal line on a Standard Celeration Chart. The lower on the vertical axis, the better the performance.

Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx) Rate:

The rate of improvement or regression, over a period of time, in a defense’s Score Prevention Behavior (SPBx).

• Represented by a solid black line on a Standard Celeration Chart. Sloping down represents improvement, while sloping up represents regression.

Football Behavior Improvement Indexes (FBxI)™:

A proprietary metric used to determine the overall rate of improvement or regression between two competing football behaviors. For example, Pass Touchdowns vs. Interceptions, or Rushing Touchdowns vs. Rushing Fumbles. Each phase of the game, and side of the ball has its own index.

• Measured by dividing the celeration rate (rate of improvement or regression) of correct behavior by the celeration rate of incorrect behavior
• Placed on a ratio chart like a standard celeration chart, the resulting value represents the overall rate of improvement, ore regression, of the correct behavior relative to the incorrect behavior
• For example: A celeration rate for correct behavior like passing touchdowns of week to week 2% growth (increasing frequency of correct behavior, good), against a a celeration rate of 11% growth in throwing interceptions (increasing frequency of incorrect behavior, bad), results in an Improvement Index of overall 8% regression in throwing Touchdowns vs Interceptions on a weekly basis.

Applied Passing Behavior:

A collection of metrics that examine the behavioral trends of all things related to the passing offense over time, measured per minute of possession time, along with rates of improvement or regression. This is measured at the team level, not the individual player level. To assign these values to any individual player, like a quarterback, would remove the reality that the entire offense works in tandem. Touchdowns and interceptions are multi-player statistics. Someone has to throw it, and someone has to catch it. Someone has to block, etc.

Otherwise we would need to make assumptions about each of the 32 individual environments as to how they coach particular things, which is impossible unless you work for those teams, and would lessen our accuracy, create explanatory fictions, and make these metrics subjective rather than completely objective.

• Passing Yard Behavior
• Passing Touchdown Behavior
• Pass Playcall Behavior
• Passing Yard Prevention Behavior
• Passing Touchdown Prevention Behavior

Applied Rushing Behavior:

A collection of metrics that examine the behavioral trends of all things related to the rushing offense over time, measured per minute of possession time, along with rates of improvement or regression. This is measured at the team level, not the individual player level. To assign these values to any individual player, like a running back, would remove the reality that the entire offense works in tandem. Rushing yards and touchdowns are multi-player statistics. In fact, you could argue the offensive line should be given the most weight.

To assign these values to individual players, we would need to make assumptions about each of the 32 individual environments as to how they coach particular things, which is impossible unless you work for those teams, and would lessen our accuracy, create explanatory fictions, and make these metrics subjective rather than completely objective.

• Rushing Yard Behavior
• Rushing Touchdown Behavior
• Run Playcall Behavior
• Rushing Yard Prevention Behavior
• Rushing Touchdown Prevention Behavior

Bounce Rate:

The measure of consistency for a group or individual performance over a period of time. The lower the rate, the more consistent a team is expected to be from one week to the next. Very helpful in lowering risk in sports betting.

• Exactly what it sounds like: the bounciness of the data over time.
• Represented by two horizontally sloping green lines, which envelope the expected performance outcomes.
• Any data points outside of those green lines is considered a performance outlier.
• An “Extreme Outlier” is any data point 0.15 or more outside of the bounce envelope

Bounce Envelope:

The boundaries indicated by the horizontal green lines on the chart. Everything inside of the green lines is considered inside of the bounce envelope.

Environmental Control Chart:

Displayed on a quadrant chart, ECC is a proprietary metric used to determine the amount of internal control a team has on a particular side of the ball, utilizing each team’s bounce rate. The lower the bounce rate, the stronger a team is internally, and the more impervious they are to external factors like injuries, outlier events, opponent quality, etc.

• Lower Left: Both units have strong internal control, for better or for worse. If a team has positive results, they should not consider major environmental changes. If they have consistently poor results, a major environmental change may be needed in the form of a coaching change.
• Upper Right: Neither Unit has strong internal control and may be susceptible to external factors such as location, opponent quality, outlier events, etc.

Football Behavior Prediction Model:

A proprietary prediction model that combines and weights over 15 pieces of behavioral data on each NFL team in order to predict each team’s final scores in a given week, against a given opponent. Full potential unlocked for subscribers to Pigeon Picks. You can track the success of the model at Pikkit!

• The model requires a minimum of three consecutive weeks of behavioral data prior to making final score predictions.
• For something to be considered “behavior” it needs to be a pattern. This helps prevent conclusions or assumptions being made off of what could be one-offs or outliers.
• The more data added to the model, the more accurate the behavioral profile created.

Standard Celeration Chart (SCC):

The chart that visually represents the performance trends, consistency and averages of teams and individual players.

• Semi-Logarithmic: Behavior change occurs exponentially, not linearly. A logarithmic chart like the SCC allows for greater accuracy in the representation of the data.
• X-Axis: Time, in the measurement of one week at a time, is measured along the x-axis from left to right, left being earlier week, the right being the most recent weeks. Each vertical line along the x-axis is one week.
• Left Y-Axis: Behavior change measured by “count per minute”.
  • SBx of 1.0 would be read as an offense scoring “one full point per minute of possession time.”
• Right Y-Axis: The standardized measurement of how long it would take to get one full instance of a behavior.
  • SBx of 0.5 on the left y-axis would also be read on the right y-axis  as “it takes the offense two minutes of possession time to score one point.”