The excitement is palpable as we gear up for a pivotal Week 16 Thursday Night Football showdown between the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams. This isn’t just another regular-season game – it’s a critical juncture in the NFC playoff race, with both teams vying for a spot in the postseason. The Saints are in a fierce battle for the NFC South division, trailing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. On the other hand, the Rams are clinging to the final wild card spot, with teams like the Seahawks and Saints breathing down their necks. A Thursday night game rarely offers such high stakes. Below is our Week 16 Thursday Night Football prediction, complete with our exclusive behavioral analytics, score prediction, and the bets we have personally placed.
Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know
- When:
- Thursday Night, December 21, 2023, 8:15 pm, est
- Where:
- SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
- Odds:
- Line: Rams -4
- O/U: 46
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- Take full advantage of our EXCLUSIVE Behavior Profiling with the ONLY model backed by the science of human behavior🧬
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Week 16 Thursday Night Football Picks
Bets Placed:
- Rams Moneyline (-200)
- Saints +4 (-110, 1/2 unit bet)
Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Rams Offense vs. Saints Defense
Rams’ Rising Power and Scoring Efficiency
In our latest Week 16 NFL Power Rankings, the Rams have emerged as significant climbers. Their offensive prowess is highlighted by a remarkable scoring behavior rate (SBx) of 0.9 points per minute of possession, a consistent trend in their last three games. This showcases their ability to score efficiently and rapidly, a crucial factor in their success. The Rams’ bounce rate of x1.8 underscores their consistency and resilience against external pressures, making them a formidable scoring force in the league.
Saints’ Defense: An Emerging Trend or a Momentary Spike?
The Saints’ defense, which recently faced weaker offenses like the Panthers and Giants, showed a significant improvement, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend. Before these matchups, there was a 20% regression in their score prevention behavior, never even having held opponents to under 0.5 points per minute of possession. However, these last two performances, which boosted their bounce rate to x3.3, could either be outliers or the beginning of a new defensive trend. The upcoming game against the Rams’ potent offense will be a litmus test for the Saints’ defense. We suspect these were outliers against bad offenses. The significant rise in bounce rate to x3.3 suggest they were outliers heavily affected by opponent quality.
Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Saints Offense vs. Rams Defense
Analyzing the Saints’ Offensive Growth
On the offensive front, the Saints have demonstrated a notable 21% weekly growth in their scoring behavior celebration rate. While they haven’t yet achieved an SBx performance of 0.9, their steady improvement is a sign of their evolving offensive strategy. Their bounce rate of x2 indicates that this growth stems more from internal development and control rather than reliance on the quality of their opponents.
Rams’ Defense and Expected Performance
The Rams’ defense has shown a modest 2% weekly improvement in their score prevention behavior. However, recent games, including a matchup against the AFC-leading Ravens, have been less than stellar. We anticipate the Rams defense to realign with their geometric mean performance, allowing approximately 0.7 points per minute of opponent possession time.
Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prediction: Final Prediction and Betting Insights
The Rams Have The Edge
Considering all the data and excluding outliers, our Week 16 Thursday Night Football prediction suggests the most probable outcome for this highly anticipated Saints vs. Rams game is a close contest with the Rams emerging victorious with a score of 27-24. The predicted probable spread of 2.8 points is intriguing, especially considering it’s lower than the four-point spread set by betting markets. Consequently, Football Behavior is placing a half-unit bet on the Saints to cover the four points, and a full unit on the Rams to win on the moneyline.
Conclusion: Week 16 Thursday Night Football Prediction
Saints vs. Rams Prediction
This Week 16 Thursday Night Football prediction is for more than just a regular-season matchup; it’s a decisive battle with significant playoff implications. The Rams’ consistent offensive growth, coupled with the Saints’ fluctuating defensive performance, sets the stage for a meaningful contest. Similarly, the Saints’ offensive growth and the Rams’ expected defensive rebound add intriguing layers to this matchup. As fans and analysts alike, we look forward to witnessing how these dynamics unfold in what promises to be a memorable game in the NFC playoff race.
- Projected Score (Average Across All Non-Outlier Outcomes)
- Saints 23.13, Rams 26 (W)
- Bets Placed
- Rams Moneyline (-200)
- Saints +4 (-110, 1/2 unit bet)
- Risk Report
- Most Likely Outlier: Saints Defense
- Relatively Safe
**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Wednesday PM)
** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit
