Here is the latest update to our Week 16 NFL Power Rankings. The Rams and Bucs keep moving up, while the Eagles keep moving down. Who will use Week 16 to rise up the ranks? Below is our ranking criteria for how we do this for full transparency.
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Win-Loss Record is used only as a tie breaker. Otherwise these would just be standings.
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Head to Head is also a tie breaker, but only if the game was played within last three weeks
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The rankings have three core components:
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Margin For Error Between Scoring Behavior rate (SBx) and Score Prevention Behavior rate (SPBx) (Weighted Value: 60%)
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Environmental Control, measured via bounce rate for each team’s offense and defense (Weighted Value: 20%)
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Celeration Trends of each team’s behavioral change. Improvement and Regression in each team’s behavior is weighed heavily (Weighted Value: 20%)
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Without further ado, here are the rankings:
Week 16 Power Rankings
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49ers
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Ravens
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Bills
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Chiefs
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Rams
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Bengals
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Buccaneers
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Dolphins
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Lions
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Browns
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Cowboys
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Texans
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Seahawks
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Eagles
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Saints
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Colts
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Jaguars
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Broncos
- Raiders
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Packers
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Cardinals
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Falcons
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Titans
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Steelers
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Vikings
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Giants
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Bears
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Jets
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Patriots
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Commanders
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Panthers
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Chargers
*Bold Denotes A Projected Playoff Team As Of Week 16
Biggest Week 16 NFL Power Rankings Movers
Moving Up
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Rams: The Rams offense is growing 16% week to week and they are winning the games they need to, as winners of four of their last five, with their only loss coming in a closely contested game to the AFC’s number one seed, and number two team on our list, Baltimore Ravens.
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Bengals: Browning has done it again a week after the Bengals turned in their two best performances of this season, he secures another victory for Cincinnati. Their scoring behavior is improving a whopping 65% week to week since Week 1, and Browning’s offense has posted three consecutive games above 0.8 SBx, the first time the Bengals have done that all season.
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Buccaneers: After cracking the top 10 last week following the victory over Atlanta, which got them into positive territory for Margin For Error, they move up even further following a decisive victory over the Green Bay Packers, further growing their positive Margin For Error.
Moving Down
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Eagles: Another disastrous loss this week to the Seattle Seahawks, something we predicted in our Week 15 Sunday Night Football Prediction. The offense is a mess and their regression from last year is finally seeing their win-loss record catch up to their behavior. They luck out with an easy final three games, but they cannot afford to take them lightly.
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Cowboys: They were our number three team last week based on a very strong margin for error, however, one thing we have pointed out about them all season is their defense’s bounce rate and how heavily they are influenced by the quality of their opponent. Bad opponents they dominate. Good ones? They seem to get dominated. They are built to play with a lead, and when they don’t get one, the flood gates open.
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Chargers:They didn’t have far to go, but on Thursday night, we watched a team completely quit and surrender. It was as embarrassing a performance as I can remember in some time. Now, Staley is fired, and it’s a new environment starting this week to finish out what has been a disastrous season.
