Thursday Night Football Prediction, Pick Week 7: Jaguars vs. Saints

Thursday Night Football Prediction: What To Know

 

• When:
  • Thursday Night, October 19th, 8:20 pm, est
• Where:
  • Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
• Odds:
  • Jaguars +125 | Saints -150

 

Jaguars vs. Saints Behavior Profiles: Jaguars Offense

 

TNF Prediction: Trevor Lawrence, If Healthy, Needs To Stabilize The Jaguars Offense

Our point of focus for our Week 7 Thursday Night Football prediction is the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. They have fallen off what was an impressive first year under Doug Pederson. After being a top 12 scoring behavior offense in 2022, this offense has yet to find its stride, despite showing the ability to still reach those heights. They have had three games this year that would have been their three worst games in all of 2022, and we are only six games into 2023. 

 

• They are scoring 21.75% less points per minute of possession time on average from 2022 to 2023
  • Their SBx* was 0.81 in 2022
  • It has fallen to 0.633 six games into 2023
• They have also become 40% more unstable in between performances
  • In 2022 they had a very stable x2 bounce rate*
  • In 2023 that is up to x2.8, which would be a “stay away rating” in our advisory to sports bettor
    
• There is hope, as they are showing 71% growth week to week in their celeration* rate

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Jaguars Offense Is Slowing Down And Becoming More Unstable

They’ll be facing a Saints defense that has been very stable, but trending in the wrong direction. They have seen 48% regression week to week in their score prevention behavior, though still remain an above average defense in that category. If that trend continues, and the Jaguars continue to reclaim their 2022 identity, pending the health of Trevor Lawrence, this Jaguars vs. Saints Thursday Night Football prediction could see a victory by the road dogs, er, cats.

Jaguars vs. Saints Behavior Profiles: Saints Offense

 

TNF Prediction: The Saints Are Headed The Wrong Way

The other offense in this Jaguars vs. Saints matchup is heading in the wrong direction. Count us among those believed the acquisition of Derek Carr made the Saints NFC South favorites. But six games into the season, the offense has yet to find their stride and they sit in a virtual three way tie in the South. Part of the reason is the Saints have been unable to convert their top 10 time of possession offense into points. 

 

• Saints Offense is regressing 17% week to week
  • They have an average SBx of 0.421 points scored per minute of possession time
  • They have not scored above a 0.7 SBx in any game this season

Thursday Night Football Prediction: Saints Have Not Found Their Stride

The Saints are trending at having 14% MORE possession time week over week, yet are regressing by 17% in points scored per minute of their possession time. That is not a good combination. They are facing a Jaguars defense that has not been very stable in their performances, but haven’t been bad enough to make us think the Saints turn it around in full this week. 

Jaguars vs. Saints Thursday Night Football Pick

The Football Behavior TNF prediction for Week 7 thinks that while the Jaguars bring a lot of instability and unpredictability to this matchup, and even more so with the health of Trevor Lawrence. But, with Lawrence, even with the volatility they are a better team than the Saints, who are trending in the wrong direction on both sides of the ball. 

Jaguars vs. Saints TNF Pick & Prediction

• Projected Score
  • Jaguars 22 | Saints 17 

• Bets Placed
  • Jaguars Alt Spread +6.5
  • Jaguars Alt Spread +4.5 (What’s Is An Alternate Spread?)
  • Jaguars Alt Spread -3.5
  • Jaguars ML
  • Jaguars +3 

• Risk Report

• • 23.9% Chance Of Outlier Performances: Relatively Safe Bet
  • Most Likely Outlier: Jaguars. They have an x2.8 bounce rate on offense and x3.1 bounce rate on defense

**All Odds provided by PointsBet (Last Updated Sunday PM)

** All Pigeon Picks bets tracked at Pikkit

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