NFL Margin For Error Rankings (MFE) is how we at Football Behavior do a version of ‘Power Rankings”. With only two weeks of football left, there is still some movement to be made among the top teams remaining. Our top three MFE teams have each made it to the final four. For the second year in a row, our top two SBx teams are playing on championship Sunday. Will they continue the trend of making it to the Super Bowl?
If You’re Short On Time…
- Following their Divisional Round games, the Ravens have overtaken the 49ers for the top spot by just 0.5 MFE points
- Chiefs had the toughest matchup of the weekend and could have won by more
- Top three MFE teams made it to the final four teams
- Three of the Top Four SBx teams made it to the final four
NFL Margin For Error Rankings: How We Do It
We are all-in on transparency here at Football Behavior. There is no secret as to how we construct our metrics and analytics. We obviously protect specific proprietary formulas, but as far as philosophy, data points involved, etc., we aim for full transparency. NFL media relies too much on subjectivity, assumptions and superstition. That is a problem WE are trying to solve.
For the full TRANSPARENT break down into our NFL Margin For Error Rankings, click here for how we do it.
2023-2024 NFL Margin For Error Rankings
Here are the most up to date rankings based on the 2023-2024 season, inclusive of playoff performances:
- Baltimore Ravens, 63.5 (+1)
- San Francisco 49ers, 63 (-1)
- Kansas City Chiefs, 49.3 (-)
- Dallas Cowboys, 44.8 (+1*)
- Buffalo Bills, 44.2 (-1)
- Miami Dolphins, 42.4 (-)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 41.2 (-)
- Los Angeles Rams, 37 (+1*)
- Houston Texans, 36.4 (-1)
- New Orleans Saints, 33.2 (+1**)
- Denver Broncos, 32.1 (+2**)
- Seattle Seahawks, 32 (+2**)
- Detroit Lions, 31.4 (-3)
- Green Bay Packers, 31.4 (-1)
*Denotes 18 Games Played
**Denotes 17 Games Played - Indianapolis Colts, 28.3
- Los Angeles Chargers, 23.8
- Las Vegas Raiders, 23.5
- Cleveland Browns, 23.2
- Minnesota Vikings, 23
- Atlanta Falcons, 22.1
- Philadelphia Eagles, 20.9
- Jacksonville Jaguars, 16.8
- Cincinnati Bengals, 16.4
- Pittsburgh Steelers, 16.4
- Chicago Bears, 16.1
- Tennessee Titans, 14
- New York Jets, 13.8
- Arizona Cardinals, 13.5
- New England Patriots, 9
- Washington Commanders, 7
- New York Giants, 1.6
- Carolina Panthers, -15.36
2023-2024 NFL Margin For Error Insights
Ravens and 49ers Flip Flop
The Race for the top SBx team is hot and heavy between each of the two number one seeds. After the divisional round games, the Ravens have jumped in front of the 49ers by half a point after a dominating win against the Houston Texans. This week, they have the much tougher matchup against the Chiefs, while the 49ers take on the Lions. However, will the 49ers get Deebo Samuel back, whom they lost on the first drive of the game vs the Packers? If not, that could prove costly.
Chiefs Overcome Toughest Matchup
The Chiefs ranked 3d in Margin For Error Rankings heading into their matchup with the Bills, who were ranked 4th. The Bills were true to their behavior, as we predicted. They continued to regress in their scoring behavior rate, but continued their efforts to control the clock. They possessed the ball for 37 minutes. However, they only scored 24 points in that time. That’s an SBx of just 0.6 points per minute of possession time.
That’s all well and good, so long as your defense doesn’t turn around and give up 27 points in just 23 minutes, or an SBx of 1.2 points per minute of possession time. And, honestly, it should have been worse. The Chiefs, with 12:13 left in the fourth quarter, fumbled the ball through the end zone from the 1 yard line for a turnover. That is the only time in 1,080 plays run that that has happened to them this season. Talk about an outlier.
In all likelihood they would have scored a touchdown there, making their SBx 34 points in around 23 minutes and 37 seconds. That would have bumped their SBx to a whopping 1.4. They had the most impressive offensive performance of the weekend, and it continues their trend of rounding into the form we are used to from them.
NFL Margin For Error Rankings Show Value
Championship weekend is the NFL’s version of the Final Four. With any metric or analytics, you are always searching to find applicable value. It’s why the type of behavior science we use at Football behavior is called APPLIED Behavior Analysis. So, it’s natural to winder if MFE has any actual value. Is it telling us anything? Judge for yourself:
- The Top Three NFL Margin For Error teams (Ravens, 49ers, Chiefs) each made it to the Final Four, Championship Weekend.
- The Top Two are hosting Championship Weekend Games
- Detroit Lions were the lone exception but…
- Three of the Top Four SBx teams (Ravens, 49ers, Lions) have made it to Championship Weekend
- This again highlights the value scoring points has over preventing points. The top two teams are elite at both. But, if you’re going to be good at one, you better be able to score
- If the Ravens and 49ers win their matchup, as mentioned above, it will be the second consecutive year that the Top 2 Sbx teams make it to the Super Bowl
