NFL Margin For Error Rankings (MFE) is how we at Football Behavior do a version of ‘Power Rankings”.
Trying to standardize and rank the NFL teams arbitrarily may seem like a fun exercise but rarely does it provide any level of value. So what we’ve done is look at team behavior on both sides of the ball and determine which teams are entering their upcoming matchups with most margin for error. So, how do we do it?
If You’re Short On Time…
- 49ers and Ravens lead the way in a tier of their own
- Cowboys and Dolphins showcase importance of behavior trends over averages
- Sleepers are better identified using MFE
- How this plays into how the Texans can beat the Ravens
Constructing NFL Margin For Error Rankings
Simply, we take the difference between their scoring behavior rate (SBx: offensive points scored per minute of possession time), and their score prevention behavior rate (SPBx: defensive points allowed per minute of opponent possession time), and weigh it against their time of possession projections for the given week to get a score.
Offense is given more weight in the score due to it being more valuable to winning games.
- SBx – SPBx = Raw MFE
- 90% of the top 10 SBx teams made the playoffs
- Only 60% of the top 10 SPBx teams made the playoffs
- Only 40% of the top 5 SPBx teams made the playoffs
- All SBx and SPBx metrics are outlier adjusted
- Raw MFE weighted against Time of Possession Rankings = Final Margin For Error Score
There is no cap on the scoring system, as again, that would place an artificial cap on behavioral performance, which doesn’t really exist in the natural world. There is no limit to your margin for error.
Rather than trying to fit it to a 1-100 scale, simply, the higher the score, the better. Said another way, the higher the score, the more margin for error a team has to overcome outliers and other mistakes, and still emerge victorious.
2023-2024 NFL Margin For Error Rankings
Here are the most up to date rankings based on the 2023-2024 season, with teams in the post-season having those games reflected here as well:
- San Francisco 49ers
- Baltimore Ravens
- Kansas City Chiefs
- Buffalo Bills
- Dallas Cowboys
- Miami Dolphins
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Houston Texans
- Los Angeles Rams
- Detroit Lions
- New Orleans Saints
- Green Bay Packers
- Denver Broncos
- Seattle Seahawks
- Indianapolis Colts
- Los Angeles Chargers
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Cleveland Browns
- Minnesota Vikings
- Atlanta Falcons
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Chicago Bears
- Tennessee Titans
- New York Jets
- Arizona Cardinals
- New England Patriots
- Washington Commanders
- New York Giants
- Carolina Panthers
2023-2024 NFL Margin For Error Insights
Ravens and 49ers Look To Establish Trend
The top teams through the Wildcard round of the playoffs are the San Fransisco 49ers and the Baltimore Ravens. They are also the top two teams on the list of betting favorites to win the Super Bowl. Should both of those teams make it, it would be the second consecutive year that the top two teams in NFL Margin For Error score made the Super Bowl. Should the Ravens win it, it would also be the second consecutive year that the number one overall team in Scoring Behavior rate (SBx) was crowned champion.
This season, those two teams were in a tier of their own. Just 3 MFE points separate them. Then the gap is gigantic. The third place Chiefs are 20 MFE points behind the 49ers. 20 points is about the same distance between the 3rd ranked Chiefs and the 16th ranked Los Angeles Chargers.
Cowboys and Dolphins Establish Value of Trends Over Averages
The Dolphins and Cowboys finished ranked 5th and 6th respectively in the NFL Margin For Error Score. Yet, they were both dominated and bounced in the first round of the playoffs. The Dolphins not only faced a higher ranked team in Kansas City (3rd), but we had been communicating to our newsletter subscribers for months just how much they were regressing week to week and that their average didn’t match their behavior, especially when facing top defenses. The Chiefs have the second ranked score prevention behavior defense in the NFL.
As for Dallas, we had informed our subscribers all season about how influenced Dallas’ defense was by opponent quality. When they faced average to above average offenses they were extremely inefficient in giving up points. Their averages were weighed down heavily by early season extreme outliers, like their shut out of the Giants in Week 1 for example.
NFL Margin For Error Rankings Help Identify Sleepers
Playoff upsets like the Packers over the Cowboys, the Texans over the Browns, or the Buccaneers over the Eagles all become less surprising when looking at where those under dogs were ranked. Tampa (7th) and Houston (8th) both finished in the top 10 of the rankings.
- Tampa Bay finished well ahead of the Eagles, whose behavior should have informed folks to treat them as the underdog rather than Tampa. We did.
- Combined with Dallas’ behavioral trends, the Packers finishing in the top 14 made that outcome plausible
- Houston was ranked 10 places aheads of Cleveland in NFL Margin For Error score, and the outcome of the game looked like it.
